This article is from the source 'guardian' and was first published or seen on . It last changed over 40 days ago and won't be checked again for changes.
You can find the current article at its original source at https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2016/may/14/labour-struggling-attract-working-class-voters-analysis-fabian-society
The article has changed 6 times. There is an RSS feed of changes available.
| Version 0 | Version 1 |
|---|---|
| Labour is struggling to attract working-class voters, analysis finds | Labour is struggling to attract working-class voters, analysis finds |
| (about 5 hours later) | |
| Labour’s performance in last week’s council elections suggests Jeremy Corbyn’s party is struggling to attract the working-class voters who traditionally formed the core of its support, according to a detailed analysis of the results. | Labour’s performance in last week’s council elections suggests Jeremy Corbyn’s party is struggling to attract the working-class voters who traditionally formed the core of its support, according to a detailed analysis of the results. |
| A report for the Fabian Society by the political analyst Lewis Baston examines the voting patterns in the marginal constituencies Labour would have to win to achieve a parliamentary majority. | A report for the Fabian Society by the political analyst Lewis Baston examines the voting patterns in the marginal constituencies Labour would have to win to achieve a parliamentary majority. |
| Baston’s analysis shows that Labour performed well in what he calls “the most modern bits of England”, and badly in its heartlands. | Baston’s analysis shows that Labour performed well in what he calls “the most modern bits of England”, and badly in its heartlands. |
| Related: The Guardian view on England’s local elections: the map’s unchanged, but mayors could move things | Editorial | Related: The Guardian view on England’s local elections: the map’s unchanged, but mayors could move things | Editorial |
| Turnout in local elections tends to be much lower than at general elections, and they are often fought on purely local issues, but regional patterns can help to give pointers to a party’s appeal for different groups of voters. | Turnout in local elections tends to be much lower than at general elections, and they are often fought on purely local issues, but regional patterns can help to give pointers to a party’s appeal for different groups of voters. |
| Labour lost a net 18 council seats once all the votes were counted, and drew ahead of the Conservatives on the projected national share of the vote by 1 percentage point – a better result than many experts had predicted. | |
| Baston finds that despite the deep divide within the parliamentary Labour party between the leftwing leadership of Corbyn and centrist “Blairite” MPs, the party’s best showing was in areas where New Labour succeeded. | Baston finds that despite the deep divide within the parliamentary Labour party between the leftwing leadership of Corbyn and centrist “Blairite” MPs, the party’s best showing was in areas where New Labour succeeded. |
| “The best Labour results were in some of the most modern bits of England, in London and its hinterland. Swindon, Milton Keynes, Reading and Crawley, and the leafy London suburbs, are what used to be regarded as classic New Labour territory, but now seem oddly fond of New Old Labour,” he said. “A more traditional socialist appeal seems to go over better with these voters than with the traditional working class.” | “The best Labour results were in some of the most modern bits of England, in London and its hinterland. Swindon, Milton Keynes, Reading and Crawley, and the leafy London suburbs, are what used to be regarded as classic New Labour territory, but now seem oddly fond of New Old Labour,” he said. “A more traditional socialist appeal seems to go over better with these voters than with the traditional working class.” |
| By contrast, voters switched to the Conservatives in areas where Labour would need to win seats to secure a majority in 2020 – such as Nuneaton and Cannock Chase – when compared with the 2012 local elections. | By contrast, voters switched to the Conservatives in areas where Labour would need to win seats to secure a majority in 2020 – such as Nuneaton and Cannock Chase – when compared with the 2012 local elections. |
| “Weakness in crucial types of constituencies in 2016, such as unpretentious Midlands towns (Nuneaton, Cannock) and big city suburbs (Bury, Bolton), is ominous, while stronger showings were in affluent seats that are either already Labour or require large swings to be sustained through to May 2020,” Baston said. | “Weakness in crucial types of constituencies in 2016, such as unpretentious Midlands towns (Nuneaton, Cannock) and big city suburbs (Bury, Bolton), is ominous, while stronger showings were in affluent seats that are either already Labour or require large swings to be sustained through to May 2020,” Baston said. |
| Comparing the results in marginal constituencies with the 2015 general election, Labour saw its share of the vote improve by 3.3% in the south, and 2.2% in the Midlands, but in the north it declined by 1.8%. | Comparing the results in marginal constituencies with the 2015 general election, Labour saw its share of the vote improve by 3.3% in the south, and 2.2% in the Midlands, but in the north it declined by 1.8%. |
| Corbyn said in the aftermath of the polls that instead of losing scores of council seats, as predicted, “we hung on and we grew support in a lot of places”. But MPs who are sceptical about his leadership are looking for evidence that he can extend the party’s reach into new areas, to chart the course back to power. | Corbyn said in the aftermath of the polls that instead of losing scores of council seats, as predicted, “we hung on and we grew support in a lot of places”. But MPs who are sceptical about his leadership are looking for evidence that he can extend the party’s reach into new areas, to chart the course back to power. |
| Baston said that in the past a 1 percentage point lead on the national share of the vote had not been enough to put oppositions on course to win the following general election. | Baston said that in the past a 1 percentage point lead on the national share of the vote had not been enough to put oppositions on course to win the following general election. |
| Ed Miliband achieved a 7.2% lead one year after the 2010 general election, and Corbyn’s 1% lead was in line with 1984, a year after Margaret Thatcher’s landslide victory in 1983, when Labour was more than a decade away from returning to government. | Ed Miliband achieved a 7.2% lead one year after the 2010 general election, and Corbyn’s 1% lead was in line with 1984, a year after Margaret Thatcher’s landslide victory in 1983, when Labour was more than a decade away from returning to government. |
| “Labour’s performance in 2016 was squarely in line with what one might expect a year into a parliament where the opposition is not going to win the general election,” Baston said. | “Labour’s performance in 2016 was squarely in line with what one might expect a year into a parliament where the opposition is not going to win the general election,” Baston said. |
| Andrew Harrop, the Fabian general secretary, said: “The results may not have been a disaster for Labour, but there is no sign that Jeremy Corbyn will do any better than Ed Miliband in winning the sorts of seats which Labour needs to govern.” He added: “With the party moving neither forwards nor backwards, Labour is no closer to resolving its internal conflicts. These results simply kick the can down the road.” | Andrew Harrop, the Fabian general secretary, said: “The results may not have been a disaster for Labour, but there is no sign that Jeremy Corbyn will do any better than Ed Miliband in winning the sorts of seats which Labour needs to govern.” He added: “With the party moving neither forwards nor backwards, Labour is no closer to resolving its internal conflicts. These results simply kick the can down the road.” |