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| Michael Gove: Staying in EU 'will add up to 5m to UK population' | Michael Gove: Staying in EU 'will add up to 5m to UK population' |
| (35 minutes later) | |
| Staying in the EU could increase the UK's population by up to 5.23m by 2030, Vote Leave has claimed, putting the NHS under "unsustainable" pressure. | Staying in the EU could increase the UK's population by up to 5.23m by 2030, Vote Leave has claimed, putting the NHS under "unsustainable" pressure. |
| Justice Secretary Michael Gove says the "safer" option to protect the NHS is to leave the European Union. | |
| The calculations are based on five new states joining the EU by 2020 and the pull factor of the UK's Living Wage. | |
| Foreign Secretary Philip Hammond said the figures were "designed to confuse" and EU enlargement was "some way away". | Foreign Secretary Philip Hammond said the figures were "designed to confuse" and EU enlargement was "some way away". |
| Politics Live: Updates from the EU referendum campaign | Politics Live: Updates from the EU referendum campaign |
| Stars back remaining in EU | |
| Two Britons lose EU vote legal bid | |
| Students risk missing vote | |
| The UK's EU vote: All you need to know | |
| Prime Minister David Cameron has said it will be "decades" before Turkey joins the EU and there is no firm date for the accession of Albania, Montenegro, Serbia and Macedonia. | Prime Minister David Cameron has said it will be "decades" before Turkey joins the EU and there is no firm date for the accession of Albania, Montenegro, Serbia and Macedonia. |
| A briefing document from Vote Leave says the EU's commitment to the free movement of people and the UK's new National Living Wage mean net migration from the EU to the UK will be between 170,000 and 430,000 a year - adding between 2.58m and 5.23m people to the UK population by 2030. | A briefing document from Vote Leave says the EU's commitment to the free movement of people and the UK's new National Living Wage mean net migration from the EU to the UK will be between 170,000 and 430,000 a year - adding between 2.58m and 5.23m people to the UK population by 2030. |
| The group calculates the NHS could have to contend with a new group of patients the size of "four Birminghams", and A&E demand could increase by up to 57%. | The group calculates the NHS could have to contend with a new group of patients the size of "four Birminghams", and A&E demand could increase by up to 57%. |
| Mr Gove said a vote to stay did not mean "things will remain just as they are". | Mr Gove said a vote to stay did not mean "things will remain just as they are". |
| "Voting to remain in the EU means voting for more Europe, more power ceded to Brussels, more migration and more money from UK taxpayers to fund Europe's expansion." | "Voting to remain in the EU means voting for more Europe, more power ceded to Brussels, more migration and more money from UK taxpayers to fund Europe's expansion." |
| Voting to leave could mean "millions of pounds saved in ending EU contributions" could be given to "strengthen" the NHS instead, he said. | Voting to leave could mean "millions of pounds saved in ending EU contributions" could be given to "strengthen" the NHS instead, he said. |
| Migration 'underestimated' | |
| "Boris Johnson and I will use all our influence with government to give the NHS additional support when we wake up on 24 June. But if we vote to remain, I fear that the NHS will only face additional pressures. | "Boris Johnson and I will use all our influence with government to give the NHS additional support when we wake up on 24 June. But if we vote to remain, I fear that the NHS will only face additional pressures. |
| "Even without the accession of any new countries, we can expect a continuing net flow of 172,000 new individuals from the EU into UK every year." | "Even without the accession of any new countries, we can expect a continuing net flow of 172,000 new individuals from the EU into UK every year." |
| But the EU was committed to allowing five new countries to join, he said, whose citizens would "inevitably" be attracted to the UK: "The idea of asking the NHS to look after a new group of patients equivalent in size to four Birminghams is clearly unsustainable." | But the EU was committed to allowing five new countries to join, he said, whose citizens would "inevitably" be attracted to the UK: "The idea of asking the NHS to look after a new group of patients equivalent in size to four Birminghams is clearly unsustainable." |
| The Office for National Statistics predicts that net migration to the UK - from countries across the world, not just the EU - will add up to just under three million by 2029. | The Office for National Statistics predicts that net migration to the UK - from countries across the world, not just the EU - will add up to just under three million by 2029. |
| Vote Leave says the ONS has "consistently underestimated the true level of migration" in the past and there are "strong reasons to doubt this forecast". | |
| 'Thin air' | |
| But the campaign group's figures were criticised by those campaigning for the UK to remain in the European Union. | |
| Mr Gove's Conservative colleague Philip Hammond said: "I think these figures are very often just plucked from thin air and they're not designed to inform - they're designed to confuse. The reality is that further steps of EU enlargement are likely to be some way away." | |
| He said the UK "won't contemplate" more member states joining the EU until their economies had reached "at least the European Union average so there isn't that huge differential in incomes that caused the big flow of migration from previous memberships". | |
| "This is a decision we will make when the time comes for each individual application country and Britain will be able to exercise a veto if we decide that it is is in our interest to do so," he added. | |
| Mr Gove stood by the figures, describing them as "robust and methodologically fair". |