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Will staying in EU really lead to an influx equal to Scottish population? Will staying in EU really lead to an influx equal to Scottish population?
(4 days later)
The claimsThe claims
The Brexit camp are pulling out all the stops to shift the EU referendum debate on to migration and the NHS and away from the economy, which is the preferred ground for the remain side. Michael Gove has claimed that if Britain stays in then up to 5.2 million EU nationals – equivalent to the population of Scotland – could arrive by 2030, many from Turkey and four Balkan countries that hope to join the bloc, and warned that this could make the NHS financially unsustainable.The Brexit camp are pulling out all the stops to shift the EU referendum debate on to migration and the NHS and away from the economy, which is the preferred ground for the remain side. Michael Gove has claimed that if Britain stays in then up to 5.2 million EU nationals – equivalent to the population of Scotland – could arrive by 2030, many from Turkey and four Balkan countries that hope to join the bloc, and warned that this could make the NHS financially unsustainable.
“Albania, Macedonia, Montenegro, Serbia and Turkey, with a combined population of 88 million, are all in line to gain EU membership in the coming years,” the justice secretary said. “Citizens from these countries will inevitably be attracted to the UK, not just because of our free healthcare but also because of the additional pull factor that will result from the introduction of the national living wage.”“Albania, Macedonia, Montenegro, Serbia and Turkey, with a combined population of 88 million, are all in line to gain EU membership in the coming years,” the justice secretary said. “Citizens from these countries will inevitably be attracted to the UK, not just because of our free healthcare but also because of the additional pull factor that will result from the introduction of the national living wage.”
In a provocative report, Vote Leave estimates that by 2030 up to 430,000 people a year could be arriving in the UK from an enlarged EU. That compares with 257,000 arrivals from the EU in the year ending September 2015, according to the latest official data. The leave side also says the EU is creating “a visa-­free zone from the English Channel to the borders of Syria”.In a provocative report, Vote Leave estimates that by 2030 up to 430,000 people a year could be arriving in the UK from an enlarged EU. That compares with 257,000 arrivals from the EU in the year ending September 2015, according to the latest official data. The leave side also says the EU is creating “a visa-­free zone from the English Channel to the borders of Syria”.
Hasn’t the EU promised membership to Turkey and the Balkans?Hasn’t the EU promised membership to Turkey and the Balkans?
In theory, yes, but they won’t join any time soon. Turkey, Albania, Macedonia, Montenegro and Serbia are candidates for EU membership. Bosnia and Kosovo have been told they can become candidates at some unspecified time in the future. But it is a heroic assumption to think any of them will be raising their flags at EU councils in the next few years. No country will join the EU in the next three years, as the European commission president, Jean-Claude Juncker, has announced a freeze on enlargement until 2018.In theory, yes, but they won’t join any time soon. Turkey, Albania, Macedonia, Montenegro and Serbia are candidates for EU membership. Bosnia and Kosovo have been told they can become candidates at some unspecified time in the future. But it is a heroic assumption to think any of them will be raising their flags at EU councils in the next few years. No country will join the EU in the next three years, as the European commission president, Jean-Claude Juncker, has announced a freeze on enlargement until 2018.
But won’t Turkey join the EU one day?But won’t Turkey join the EU one day?
Discussions on bringing Turkey into Europe’s orbit have been going on for decades. The Turkish government made a bid for associate membership of the European Economic Community in 1959, four years before General Charles de Gaulle vetoed Harold Macmillan’s attempt to get Britain into the common market. Turkey applied for full membership in 1987. After almost two decades of prevarication, the EU launched official membership talks in 2005. Since then, negotiations have gone almost nowhere: Turkey has concluded only one out of 35 negotiating chapters, which relate to conditions for membership, and that was on science and research, arguably the easiest. Eight chapters are frozen because of a long-running dispute with Cyprus.Discussions on bringing Turkey into Europe’s orbit have been going on for decades. The Turkish government made a bid for associate membership of the European Economic Community in 1959, four years before General Charles de Gaulle vetoed Harold Macmillan’s attempt to get Britain into the common market. Turkey applied for full membership in 1987. After almost two decades of prevarication, the EU launched official membership talks in 2005. Since then, negotiations have gone almost nowhere: Turkey has concluded only one out of 35 negotiating chapters, which relate to conditions for membership, and that was on science and research, arguably the easiest. Eight chapters are frozen because of a long-running dispute with Cyprus.
Even if Ankara and the EU could resolve the sticking points that have blocked talks for years, huge doubts remain about Turkey’s membership prospects. All 28 EU member states would have to grant approval. Several countries would be likely to hold referendums, including Austria, where opposition to Turkish membership runs deep.Even if Ankara and the EU could resolve the sticking points that have blocked talks for years, huge doubts remain about Turkey’s membership prospects. All 28 EU member states would have to grant approval. Several countries would be likely to hold referendums, including Austria, where opposition to Turkish membership runs deep.
Even supporters of Turkish membership doubt whether it will ever join the EU. One senior European politician who supports Turkish accession told the Guardian recently that the EU should stop “permanent hypocrisy” on Turkish accession negotiations. “We should tell them there is no way to join the European Union,” the source said.Even supporters of Turkish membership doubt whether it will ever join the EU. One senior European politician who supports Turkish accession told the Guardian recently that the EU should stop “permanent hypocrisy” on Turkish accession negotiations. “We should tell them there is no way to join the European Union,” the source said.
Hasn’t the EU just offered 79 million Turks visa-free travel to Europe?Hasn’t the EU just offered 79 million Turks visa-free travel to Europe?
Ankara and Brussels are at odds over Turkey’s anti-terrorism laws, a key condition of agreeing the proposed visa deal. If a compromise is found, as expected, then in theory 79 million Turkish citizens would have access to Europe under the visa-free travel scheme. But Gove neglected to say that no Turkish citizen would have visa-free travel rights to the UK, because Turkey is outside the EU’s passport-free Schengen zone. Moreover, Turks will only be able to travel to Europe if they have the latest up-to-date biometric passport. Today not a single Turkish citizen has such a passport, although the documents will go into production from June. Ankara and Brussels are at odds over Turkey’s anti-terrorism laws, a key condition of agreeing the proposed visa deal. If a compromise is found, as expected, then in theory 79 million Turkish citizens would have access to Europe under the visa-free travel scheme. But Gove neglected to say that no Turkish citizen would have visa-free travel rights to the UK, because the UK is outside the EU’s passport-free Schengen zone. Moreover, Turks will only be able to travel to Europe if they have the latest up-to-date biometric passport. Today not a single Turkish citizen has such a passport, although the documents will go into production from June.
And what about the Balkans?And what about the Balkans?
Balkan countries have better prospects of joining the EU than Turkey, but that is not saying much. Montenegro (population 620,000) is making the fastest progress: it has closed talks in two out of 35 policy chapters. With widespread concern about corruption, lack of media freedom and the rule of law, the Balkan EU candidates are years away from joining. Many EU officials regretted the decision to let Romania and Bulgaria join when they still faced serious problems with corruption. Countries behind them in the enlargement queue face much tougher tests.Balkan countries have better prospects of joining the EU than Turkey, but that is not saying much. Montenegro (population 620,000) is making the fastest progress: it has closed talks in two out of 35 policy chapters. With widespread concern about corruption, lack of media freedom and the rule of law, the Balkan EU candidates are years away from joining. Many EU officials regretted the decision to let Romania and Bulgaria join when they still faced serious problems with corruption. Countries behind them in the enlargement queue face much tougher tests.
But if these countries did eventually become EU members, wouldn’t people flock to the UK?But if these countries did eventually become EU members, wouldn’t people flock to the UK?
Recent history shows two things. First, the UK is very appealing place to live and work for other EU citizens. Second, making migration forecasts is risky game, as the British government found out after its notoriously low estimate that only 13,000 EU citizens would come to the UK after the big enlargement of 2004 – the latest figures show there are 2.15 million EU citizens in the UK.Recent history shows two things. First, the UK is very appealing place to live and work for other EU citizens. Second, making migration forecasts is risky game, as the British government found out after its notoriously low estimate that only 13,000 EU citizens would come to the UK after the big enlargement of 2004 – the latest figures show there are 2.15 million EU citizens in the UK.
EU member stateswill be able to impose controls to keep people from new member states out of their labour markets. If the British government remains in the EU, it would have a say in deciding on how and when to extend free movement to new member states.EU member stateswill be able to impose controls to keep people from new member states out of their labour markets. If the British government remains in the EU, it would have a say in deciding on how and when to extend free movement to new member states.
Verdict: will the UK gain a ‘Scotland-sized’ migrant population by 2030?Verdict: will the UK gain a ‘Scotland-sized’ migrant population by 2030?
Highly unlikely. The leave campaign is assuming that five countries, including Turkey, will join the EU in the coming years. This is highly questionable. Some countries such as the Czech Republic spent five years or more negotiating accession, and they were much closer to EU legal standards. After decades of lofty talk, dashed expectations and bad faith about Turkey, anyone who thinks this enlargement will happen in the next decade is indulging in magical thinking. Today the only people who sound confident that Turkey will join the EU are Brexit campaigners.Highly unlikely. The leave campaign is assuming that five countries, including Turkey, will join the EU in the coming years. This is highly questionable. Some countries such as the Czech Republic spent five years or more negotiating accession, and they were much closer to EU legal standards. After decades of lofty talk, dashed expectations and bad faith about Turkey, anyone who thinks this enlargement will happen in the next decade is indulging in magical thinking. Today the only people who sound confident that Turkey will join the EU are Brexit campaigners.