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| Tory EU referendum voters are switching to remain, says poll | Tory EU referendum voters are switching to remain, says poll |
| (about 3 hours later) | |
| David Cameron’s campaign to keep the UK in the EU appears to be working as Conservative voters switch to the remain camp, the latest Opinium/Observer referendum poll suggests. | David Cameron’s campaign to keep the UK in the EU appears to be working as Conservative voters switch to the remain camp, the latest Opinium/Observer referendum poll suggests. |
| With a month to go before voters decide whether Britain should stay in or leave the EU, Opinium puts remain four points ahead on 44%, with leave on 40% and 14% undecided. At the beginning of April, leave had a four-point lead. | With a month to go before voters decide whether Britain should stay in or leave the EU, Opinium puts remain four points ahead on 44%, with leave on 40% and 14% undecided. At the beginning of April, leave had a four-point lead. |
| Remain now has a substantial lead among Conservative voters with 48% of Tory backers saying they want to stay in the EU, compared with 41% who want to leave. | Remain now has a substantial lead among Conservative voters with 48% of Tory backers saying they want to stay in the EU, compared with 41% who want to leave. |
| Related: Third of Tories could defect to Ukip if UK stays in EU, says Farage | Related: Third of Tories could defect to Ukip if UK stays in EU, says Farage |
| This is a considerable turnaround since the first Opinium/Observer referendum poll in early April, which showed 44% of Conservative voters in favour of leaving against 39% who backed staying in. | This is a considerable turnaround since the first Opinium/Observer referendum poll in early April, which showed 44% of Conservative voters in favour of leaving against 39% who backed staying in. |
| Adam Drummond, of Opinium Research, which carried out an online poll of 2,008 adults between 17 and 19 May, said: “There does seem to have been some move towards staying in the EU, particularly given that ours is an online methodology which typically shows a closer race than polls conducted on the phone. The change comes mainly from Conservative voters who have moved from narrowly backing Brexit at the end of April to a large lead for remain.” | Adam Drummond, of Opinium Research, which carried out an online poll of 2,008 adults between 17 and 19 May, said: “There does seem to have been some move towards staying in the EU, particularly given that ours is an online methodology which typically shows a closer race than polls conducted on the phone. The change comes mainly from Conservative voters who have moved from narrowly backing Brexit at the end of April to a large lead for remain.” |
| Drummond said the change appeared to be significant though it could in part be the result of hardline pro-Brexit Tories now identifying themselves as Ukip supporters. This would mean that the proportion of pro-Brexit Tories would drop in the figures. | Drummond said the change appeared to be significant though it could in part be the result of hardline pro-Brexit Tories now identifying themselves as Ukip supporters. This would mean that the proportion of pro-Brexit Tories would drop in the figures. |
| When asked how important the referendum was, more than half (54%) said they believed it was more important than a general election while 39% thought it was about the same level of importance. | When asked how important the referendum was, more than half (54%) said they believed it was more important than a general election while 39% thought it was about the same level of importance. |
| Two-thirds (67%) of those planning to vote leave thought it was more important than a general election against 47% of those planning to vote to remain. | Two-thirds (67%) of those planning to vote leave thought it was more important than a general election against 47% of those planning to vote to remain. |
| Three-fifths of respondents (61%) said they had discussed the referendum with family members and 54% had done so with friends. Ukip supporters discussed the referendum most, with 76% of party supporters saying they had raised it with family and 70% with friends. | Three-fifths of respondents (61%) said they had discussed the referendum with family members and 54% had done so with friends. Ukip supporters discussed the referendum most, with 76% of party supporters saying they had raised it with family and 70% with friends. |
| Related: Polls show Tory voters are pushing Britain towards staying in EU | |
| While the lead for remain is still narrow, more than twice as many respondents said they expected the UK to remain in the EU (52%) as those who thought it would vote to leave (23%). Of remain supporters, 76% think their side will win while only 46% of leave’s backers are expecting success. | While the lead for remain is still narrow, more than twice as many respondents said they expected the UK to remain in the EU (52%) as those who thought it would vote to leave (23%). Of remain supporters, 76% think their side will win while only 46% of leave’s backers are expecting success. |
| Opinium also asked what effect people thought Brexit would have on their financial security, with 31% saying they thought their household would be less financially secure if Britain voted to leave, while 17% believed it would be more secure. | Opinium also asked what effect people thought Brexit would have on their financial security, with 31% saying they thought their household would be less financially secure if Britain voted to leave, while 17% believed it would be more secure. |
| Almost nine in 10 (87%) of respondents say they are definitely registered to vote, while a further 6% think they are. However, only 70% of 18 to 34-year-olds say they are definitely registered to vote compared with 97% of those aged 55 and over. | Almost nine in 10 (87%) of respondents say they are definitely registered to vote, while a further 6% think they are. However, only 70% of 18 to 34-year-olds say they are definitely registered to vote compared with 97% of those aged 55 and over. |
| • Opinium Research carried out an online survey of 2,008 UK adults aged 18+ from 17 to 19 May 2016. Results have been weighted to nationally representative criteria. | • Opinium Research carried out an online survey of 2,008 UK adults aged 18+ from 17 to 19 May 2016. Results have been weighted to nationally representative criteria. |