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Bank of England governor denies being politically biased over Brexit - live updates | Bank of England governor denies being politically biased over Brexit - live updates |
(35 minutes later) | |
12.07pm BST | |
12:07 | |
Carney denies being influenced by Goldman Sachs | |
Steve Baker MP then leaves Mark Carney briefly speechless, by asking him to refute the suggestion that Goldman Sachs have pushed him into the Brexit debate. | |
Baker tells the Bank governor that he is asking ‘in the spirit of goodwill’ (!!).... | |
We know that Goldman Sachs has been a donor to the Remain campaign, you are a former managing director of Goldman Sachs. | |
Can I just give you the opportunity to refute any suggestion that Goldman Sachs may have put pressure on you to take a view? | |
“Wow....”, replies Carney, seemingly at a loss for words. | |
Baker: It’s not an allegation - it’s an opportunity to refute it. | |
Carney refutes it with gusto: | |
Yes, I refute it categorically... and am stunned to ever have it raised. | |
That’s a pretty remarkable jibe at the credibility of one of the world’s top central bankers -- but one which conspiracy theorists will like to hear aired.... | |
.@SteveBakerHW "Can I give you the opportunity to refute claim Goldman Sachs put pressure on you?"Mark Carney: "Wow. I am stunned." | |
Updated | |
at 12.08pm BST | |
11.58am BST | |
11:58 | |
Q: Why do the Bank’s latest graphs show uncertainty over UK assets falling, just as the EU referendum reaches its height, asks Steve Baker. | |
Policymaker Martin Weale suggests that it is tracking the support for the Remain campaign. | |
11.55am BST | |
11:55 | |
Steve Baker then turns to the Bank’s [not unblemished] track record on forecasting | |
You said that interest rates might rise when unemployment fell to 7%, but they didn’t. Then you said they might rise once real wages went up, but they didn’t. Then you suggested rate could go up at the turn of 2016. They didn’t. So.... | |
Q: If the bank can’t forecast its own actions, why should we trust your forecasts? You didn’t even predict the halving of the oil price. | |
Deputy governor Ben Broadbent says no-one predicted that oil would fall so sharply. Financial markets make their best guess about these moves. | |
Q: Well, you’ve just proved the impossibility of making major economic predictions (such as the impact of Brexit) | |
That’s a false dichotomy, Broadbent replies. You can’t say that forecasting is impossible, just because you can’t predict everything. | |
Just because the future is uncertain doesn’t mean that forecasting is useless, he adds. | |
[This is an example of what Sky’s Faisal Islam yesterday called the ‘pizza analogy’:] | |
That's pizza analogy - cant predict what you will weigh in a year or 20 years..CAn predict if you eat a pizza every hour -fatter than if not | |
11.46am BST | |
11:46 | |
Steve Baker MP goes next, and reduces Mark Carney to giggles. | |
Baker, another pro-Brexit MP, tells the Bank of England’s top brass that he positively rejects the idea that they are wicked conspirators. | |
Instead.... | |
I choose to believe your wholesale innocence, completely unsullied by the grubby politics of this referendum matter. As it happens I think you’re just wrong.... | |
Baker also invites Carney to the Annual Hayek Memorial Lecture held by the IEA thinktank on 8 June, to learn the error of his ways. | |
You can sign up here: George Selgin on stability without Central Banks | |
11.39am BST | |
11:39 | |
During a long discussion on sterling, Ben Broadbent suggests that the pound could fall by 5% if Britain votes to leave the EU. | |
Updated | |
at 11.39am BST | |
11.38am BST | |
11:38 | |
23% of undecideds trust Mark, only 1% trust George! #EUref : Carney doubles down on Brexit recession risk warning https://t.co/xni2Vns8uV | |
11.28am BST | 11.28am BST |
11:28 | 11:28 |
Ben Chu of the Independent says that Mark Carney has “doubled down” on his concerns over the EU referendum this morning. | Ben Chu of the Independent says that Mark Carney has “doubled down” on his concerns over the EU referendum this morning. |
And that could be significant, as opinion polls have found that the public trust the Bank of England governor more than Westminster’s best and brightest. | And that could be significant, as opinion polls have found that the public trust the Bank of England governor more than Westminster’s best and brightest. |
Ben writes: | Ben writes: |
The Governor of the Bank of England, one of the most trusted public figures in the UK, has sounded another warning about the instant economic shock Brexit would inflict on Britain. | The Governor of the Bank of England, one of the most trusted public figures in the UK, has sounded another warning about the instant economic shock Brexit would inflict on Britain. |
Speaking in front of MPs on the Treasury Select Committee, Mark Carney, who recent polling suggested is more trusted among the public than senior politicians, said: “Brexit to my mind would have a material impact on growth and inflation. It would be likely to have a negative impact in the short term.” | Speaking in front of MPs on the Treasury Select Committee, Mark Carney, who recent polling suggested is more trusted among the public than senior politicians, said: “Brexit to my mind would have a material impact on growth and inflation. It would be likely to have a negative impact in the short term.” |
Following up on his words earlier this month, Mr Carney added: “I certainly think that would increase the risk of recession.” | Following up on his words earlier this month, Mr Carney added: “I certainly think that would increase the risk of recession.” |
Mr Carney’s warning follows a stark warning from the Chancellor yesterday, citing Treasury economic analysis, that Brexit would lead to an immediate year-long recession for the UK. | Mr Carney’s warning follows a stark warning from the Chancellor yesterday, citing Treasury economic analysis, that Brexit would lead to an immediate year-long recession for the UK. |
More here: | More here: |
Carney doubles down on Brexit recession risk warning in front of MPs https://t.co/Hv8LioPJdl | Carney doubles down on Brexit recession risk warning in front of MPs https://t.co/Hv8LioPJdl |
11.25am BST | 11.25am BST |
11:25 | 11:25 |
Asked about recent movements in the pound, Mark Carney says sterling has been tracking the probability of Britain leaving the EU (rising when Brexit looks less likely). | Asked about recent movements in the pound, Mark Carney says sterling has been tracking the probability of Britain leaving the EU (rising when Brexit looks less likely). |
11.19am BST | 11.19am BST |
11:19 | 11:19 |
Mark Carney had early look at Treasury's Brexit work | Mark Carney had early look at Treasury's Brexit work |
This may not reassure critics of the Bank’s independence.... | This may not reassure critics of the Bank’s independence.... |
Carney reveals he saw a copy of the HMT report two weeks ago at breakfast with the Chancellor | Carney reveals he saw a copy of the HMT report two weeks ago at breakfast with the Chancellor |
Osborne gave Carney an advance copy of the Treasury document on Brexit over breakfast - Carney says there was no collaboration | Osborne gave Carney an advance copy of the Treasury document on Brexit over breakfast - Carney says there was no collaboration |
Carney says he saw the draft version, because it included economic forecasts, but he didn’t give any feedback. | Carney says he saw the draft version, because it included economic forecasts, but he didn’t give any feedback. |
Deputy governor Ben Broadbent, though, says he’s hardly looked at the Treasury’s analysis at all (which warns that Brexit would cause a DIY recession) | Deputy governor Ben Broadbent, though, says he’s hardly looked at the Treasury’s analysis at all (which warns that Brexit would cause a DIY recession) |
Updated | Updated |
at 11.23am BST | at 11.23am BST |
11.16am BST | 11.16am BST |
11:16 | 11:16 |
John Mann MP now takes up the issue of the Bank’s independence (or lack of) over Brexit. | John Mann MP now takes up the issue of the Bank’s independence (or lack of) over Brexit. |
He says the external members of the Monetary Policy Committee – Martin Weale and Gertjan Vlieghe – are being accused of simply “doing whatever the governor tells you to do”. | He says the external members of the Monetary Policy Committee – Martin Weale and Gertjan Vlieghe – are being accused of simply “doing whatever the governor tells you to do”. |
Weale points out that he’s often disagreed with the rest of the committee, by voting to raise interest rates in recent years (before changing his mind). | Weale points out that he’s often disagreed with the rest of the committee, by voting to raise interest rates in recent years (before changing his mind). |
Q: But why aren’t the external members at the Bank speaking up against these slurs on your integrity? | Q: But why aren’t the external members at the Bank speaking up against these slurs on your integrity? |
Vlieghe says he does resent the implication that the committee are under the control of Mark Carney, or George Osborne. He insists that there’s no secretive control of the Bank. | Vlieghe says he does resent the implication that the committee are under the control of Mark Carney, or George Osborne. He insists that there’s no secretive control of the Bank. |
No-one has told me, or asked me, about which way these discussions should go. | No-one has told me, or asked me, about which way these discussions should go. |
Mann suggests that if the MPC’s external members are truly independent, they should speak up a bit. | Mann suggests that if the MPC’s external members are truly independent, they should speak up a bit. |
Labour's @JohnMannMP suggests BoE's external MPC members are doing Mark Carney's bidding. They politely disagree. pic.twitter.com/wr8Uu97Z95 | Labour's @JohnMannMP suggests BoE's external MPC members are doing Mark Carney's bidding. They politely disagree. pic.twitter.com/wr8Uu97Z95 |
11.10am BST | 11.10am BST |
11:10 | 11:10 |
Perhaps sensibly, Mark Carney declines to comment on the Brexit analysis issued by the Treasury yesterday, which predicted four quarters of recession. | Perhaps sensibly, Mark Carney declines to comment on the Brexit analysis issued by the Treasury yesterday, which predicted four quarters of recession. |
11.08am BST | 11.08am BST |
11:08 | 11:08 |
Mark Carney then warns that a vote to leave the EU could prompt a ‘Pavolvian’ reaction in the City, pushing up the risk premium on UK assets. | Mark Carney then warns that a vote to leave the EU could prompt a ‘Pavolvian’ reaction in the City, pushing up the risk premium on UK assets. |
But it would also be hard to the Bank to stimulate the economy, if a weaker pound drove up inflation. | But it would also be hard to the Bank to stimulate the economy, if a weaker pound drove up inflation. |
Financial markets have an "almost Pavlovian response to bad news", Mark Carney tells @RachelReevesMP. | Financial markets have an "almost Pavlovian response to bad news", Mark Carney tells @RachelReevesMP. |
Carney: After #Brexit, ex rate/supply side shock wld put upward pressure on inflation, reducing likelihood of stimulus even if econ slows. | Carney: After #Brexit, ex rate/supply side shock wld put upward pressure on inflation, reducing likelihood of stimulus even if econ slows. |
11.03am BST | 11.03am BST |
11:03 | 11:03 |
Rachel Reeves then questions Mark Carney about the implications of Britain leaving the EU. | Rachel Reeves then questions Mark Carney about the implications of Britain leaving the EU. |
Mark Carney agrees that Brexit could cause the pound to weaken, creating an upside shock to inflation that would make it harder to keep interest rates low. | Mark Carney agrees that Brexit could cause the pound to weaken, creating an upside shock to inflation that would make it harder to keep interest rates low. |
If Britain stays in the EU, the next move in interest rates is probably up. If the public vote to leave, there’s less chance of a rate rise. | If Britain stays in the EU, the next move in interest rates is probably up. If the public vote to leave, there’s less chance of a rate rise. |
Deputy governor Ben Broadbent then points out that the UK economy appears to have slowed quite sharply this year - it’s unclear how much of this is due to Brexit fears. | Deputy governor Ben Broadbent then points out that the UK economy appears to have slowed quite sharply this year - it’s unclear how much of this is due to Brexit fears. |
10.58am BST | 10.58am BST |
10:58 | 10:58 |
Committee chairman Andrew Tyrie steps in -- perhaps worried that Mark Carney and Jacob Rees-Mogg might take their argument outside. | Committee chairman Andrew Tyrie steps in -- perhaps worried that Mark Carney and Jacob Rees-Mogg might take their argument outside. |
He tells the BoE governor that many members of the commitee would have been concerned if the Bank had NOT discussed the EU referendum. | He tells the BoE governor that many members of the commitee would have been concerned if the Bank had NOT discussed the EU referendum. |
Labour MP Rachel Reeves than puts the boot into Rees-Mogg, saying: | Labour MP Rachel Reeves than puts the boot into Rees-Mogg, saying: |
If anyone’s reputation has been damaged by today’s performance, it’s not the Bank of England. | If anyone’s reputation has been damaged by today’s performance, it’s not the Bank of England. |
Carney be like pic.twitter.com/Oft0ElUXbL | Carney be like pic.twitter.com/Oft0ElUXbL |
Carney 3 Rees-Mogg 0 | Carney 3 Rees-Mogg 0 |
Updated | Updated |
at 11.00am BST | at 11.00am BST |
10.50am BST | 10.50am BST |
10:50 | 10:50 |
Carney accused of 'political involvement' over Brexit. | Carney accused of 'political involvement' over Brexit. |
Jacob Rees-Mogg MP now accuses Carney of being influenced by chancellor George Osborne. | Jacob Rees-Mogg MP now accuses Carney of being influenced by chancellor George Osborne. |
As the gloves come off, Carney insists that he’s not being played by government. | As the gloves come off, Carney insists that he’s not being played by government. |
There’s “no possibility of undue influence from the Treasury”, Carney insists. It wouldn’t work anyway, even if they tried | There’s “no possibility of undue influence from the Treasury”, Carney insists. It wouldn’t work anyway, even if they tried |
Rees-Mogg repeatedly trying to establish HMT influence over the Bank of England. "There is no possibility of undue influence", says Carney. | Rees-Mogg repeatedly trying to establish HMT influence over the Bank of England. "There is no possibility of undue influence", says Carney. |
Q: So it’s very convenient that you’re putting out the same propaganda as the Chancellor? | Q: So it’s very convenient that you’re putting out the same propaganda as the Chancellor? |
I don’t accept that at all, Carney replies. | I don’t accept that at all, Carney replies. |
Q: But you have a duty to remain apolitical. How can anyone trust you on interest rates now? | Q: But you have a duty to remain apolitical. How can anyone trust you on interest rates now? |
Our comments might not please you, Carney shoots back, but it has improved the chances of the economy recovering from the Brexit undertainty. | Our comments might not please you, Carney shoots back, but it has improved the chances of the economy recovering from the Brexit undertainty. |
To suggest otherwise is to try to undermine it. | To suggest otherwise is to try to undermine it. |
Rees Mogg insists that Carney has become politically involved... | Rees Mogg insists that Carney has become politically involved... |
I don’t think it’s worth replying to, says Carney, trying to swat the pro-Brexit MP aside. | I don’t think it’s worth replying to, says Carney, trying to swat the pro-Brexit MP aside. |
Rees-Mogg leaves Carney speechless after accusing him of getting "politically involved". "I don't think that's worth replying to" #euref | Rees-Mogg leaves Carney speechless after accusing him of getting "politically involved". "I don't think that's worth replying to" #euref |
Updated | Updated |
at 11.31am BST | at 11.31am BST |