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You can find the current article at its original source at https://www.theguardian.com/politics/live/2016/may/24/eu-referendum-both-sides-treating-people-like-simpletons-says-steve-hilton-politics-live
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| Blair: it is 'not yet a proven' that Corbyn can win an election - Politics live | Blair: it is 'not yet a proven' that Corbyn can win an election - Politics live |
| (35 minutes later) | |
| 4.34pm BST | |
| 16:34 | |
| Cutting EU migration would lead to lower growth and higher taxes, says NIESR | |
| The National Institute of Economic and Social Research has today published a paper looking at the impact of cutting immigration on growth. The NIESR is describing it as “the most comprehensive analysis of the long-term impacts of immigration on the UK economy to date”. | |
| The report models what might happen to the economy over the next 50 years under two conditions, a Remain net migration scenario (based on current longterm projections) and a Leave one (assuming net migration from EU countries will be cut by two thirds). | |
| It finds that, under the Leave scenario, GDP per head would be lower, but not massively lower. By 2065 it would be 1% lower than otherwise, the report says. | |
| But post-tax wages would be 2% lower than otherwise, the report says. That is because the reduction in immigration would result in the population being proportionately older, with the result that government spending as a proportion of GDP would be higher, and taxes would be higher (£400 per person higher, in 2014 prices). | |
| Here is the full 38-page report (pdf). And here is an extract from the news release. | |
| The paper compares “Leave” and “Remain” scenarios for migration to the UK after the referendum, and assesses their macroeconomic impacts. “Leave” assumes that net migration from the EU countries will decline by two thirds compared to “Remain”. By 2065, in the Leave scenario, aggregate GDP and GDP per person are 9% and 1% lower respectively compared to the “Remain” scenario. Reduced migration after leaving the EU has a significant negative impact on the public finances, primarily because of a higher dependency ratio, which is the fraction of young and old people of the total population. Accordingly government spending rises as a share of GDP by 1.1 percentage points in 2065, requiring an increase in taxation of about £400 per person (2014 pounds). As a result, post-tax wages are 2% lower in the Leave scenario. | |
| And here is a quote from Katerina Lisenkova, one of the report’s two authors. She said: | |
| Our research shows that lower migration has an overall negative effect on the UK economy. In general EU immigrants benefit the UK economy for two main reasons – they are on average much younger and are more highly qualified than the general population. | |
| Updated | |
| at 4.38pm BST | |
| 3.56pm BST | 3.56pm BST |
| 15:56 | 15:56 |
| Ken Clarke says London is 'the money laundering capital of the world' | Ken Clarke says London is 'the money laundering capital of the world' |
| MPs are still debating the Queen’s speech and Kenneth Clarke, the Conservative former chancellor, has just finished his contribution. In a wide-ranging speech, which included a passage about how corporate pay levels being far too high, Clarke said he was particularly pleased the speech included measures to tackle money laundering, because London is “the money laundering capital of the world. | MPs are still debating the Queen’s speech and Kenneth Clarke, the Conservative former chancellor, has just finished his contribution. In a wide-ranging speech, which included a passage about how corporate pay levels being far too high, Clarke said he was particularly pleased the speech included measures to tackle money laundering, because London is “the money laundering capital of the world. |
| In the fight against crime in this country we are very bad at dealing with white collar crime. There is growing awareness today that if you wish to rob a bank, you go to the Libor market. You don’t put a balaclava on and pick up a shotgun, that’s much less profitable. At last we are starting to do something about it. I welcome this bill [the criminal finances bill] and I hope I can be reassured it will tackle not just tax evasion, which is quite rightly high on the public agenda, but money laundering. London is still the money laundering capital of the world. If you’re an African despot or a serious international corrupt criminal, London is the best place to put your money because you can trust the bankers to look after it and not steal it from you. I welcome the fact that we are going to improve the reporting of suspicious activities. | In the fight against crime in this country we are very bad at dealing with white collar crime. There is growing awareness today that if you wish to rob a bank, you go to the Libor market. You don’t put a balaclava on and pick up a shotgun, that’s much less profitable. At last we are starting to do something about it. I welcome this bill [the criminal finances bill] and I hope I can be reassured it will tackle not just tax evasion, which is quite rightly high on the public agenda, but money laundering. London is still the money laundering capital of the world. If you’re an African despot or a serious international corrupt criminal, London is the best place to put your money because you can trust the bankers to look after it and not steal it from you. I welcome the fact that we are going to improve the reporting of suspicious activities. |
| Updated | Updated |
| at 3.57pm BST | at 3.57pm BST |
| 3.21pm BST | 3.21pm BST |
| 15:21 | 15:21 |
| Farage says Cameron's EU referendum tactics are 'pretty close to cheating' | Farage says Cameron's EU referendum tactics are 'pretty close to cheating' |
| Nigel Farage, the Ukip leader, has been campaigning in Dudley today. According to the Press Association, here are some of the things he has been saying. | Nigel Farage, the Ukip leader, has been campaigning in Dudley today. According to the Press Association, here are some of the things he has been saying. |
| In the end I just feel that all these threats may well backfire. This time last year Remain were a long way ahead. This time this year, they’re a little bit ahead. | In the end I just feel that all these threats may well backfire. This time last year Remain were a long way ahead. This time this year, they’re a little bit ahead. |
| Is there any evidence to say there won’t be a recession if we stay in? The British economy is not doing that well. Our 2% growth is funded by a population increase of half a million people a year and by massive government borrowing. | Is there any evidence to say there won’t be a recession if we stay in? The British economy is not doing that well. Our 2% growth is funded by a population increase of half a million people a year and by massive government borrowing. |
| They talk about about the pound going down. The pound has been going down since July 2014. Britain is not in that great a state. | They talk about about the pound going down. The pound has been going down since July 2014. Britain is not in that great a state. |
| But this isn’t about economics. I can tell you we will be better off out, he’ll tell you we’ll be better off in. Ultimately this referendum is not about trade, it’s not about money - it’s about political union. Do we wish to remain part of a political union that makes the majority of our laws? | But this isn’t about economics. I can tell you we will be better off out, he’ll tell you we’ll be better off in. Ultimately this referendum is not about trade, it’s not about money - it’s about political union. Do we wish to remain part of a political union that makes the majority of our laws? |
| He also appeared to criticise Vote Leave for focusing so prominently on the claim that leaving the EU could free up up to £350m a week for the NHS. | He also appeared to criticise Vote Leave for focusing so prominently on the claim that leaving the EU could free up up to £350m a week for the NHS. |
| It’s all well and good to say we could have more money for the NHS but actually this referendum is about more than that. Our politicians have given away control of our country. Our message has got to be clear - we believe in this country, we believe in its people and we want out country back. | It’s all well and good to say we could have more money for the NHS but actually this referendum is about more than that. Our politicians have given away control of our country. Our message has got to be clear - we believe in this country, we believe in its people and we want out country back. |
| How dare Cameron talk about the cost of holidays when it’s him with air passenger duty that’s put hundreds of pounds on a family going to Florida or Disneyland or anywhere else? He’s the man that’s made holidays expensive. We do not need a European commission to have competitive air fares - it’s so typical of Cameron to make the accusation for the very thing that he himself is guilty of. | How dare Cameron talk about the cost of holidays when it’s him with air passenger duty that’s put hundreds of pounds on a family going to Florida or Disneyland or anywhere else? He’s the man that’s made holidays expensive. We do not need a European commission to have competitive air fares - it’s so typical of Cameron to make the accusation for the very thing that he himself is guilty of. |
| This is from Gawain Towler, a Ukip press officer. | This is from Gawain Towler, a Ukip press officer. |
| .@Nigel_Farage picking up some famous pork scratchings in Dudley @brexitbustour @UKIP pic.twitter.com/XXv1KInShb | .@Nigel_Farage picking up some famous pork scratchings in Dudley @brexitbustour @UKIP pic.twitter.com/XXv1KInShb |
| 3.02pm BST | 3.02pm BST |
| 15:02 | 15:02 |
| Alan Johnson, chair of Labour In for Britain, has been taking part in a Mumsnet Q&A on the EU referendum this afternoon. | Alan Johnson, chair of Labour In for Britain, has been taking part in a Mumsnet Q&A on the EU referendum this afternoon. |
| The first question he answered came from someone who asked when the plague of locusts would arrive if Britain voted for Brexit. He replied: | The first question he answered came from someone who asked when the plague of locusts would arrive if Britain voted for Brexit. He replied: |
| I can confidently reveal the date of the plague of locusts is 24th of June if we vote to leave - in which case, the plan is to grant locusts free movement, anywhere in the EU. | I can confidently reveal the date of the plague of locusts is 24th of June if we vote to leave - in which case, the plan is to grant locusts free movement, anywhere in the EU. |
| 2.51pm BST | 2.51pm BST |
| 14:51 | 14:51 |
| ICM has released a new online EU referendum poll. | ICM has released a new online EU referendum poll. |
| ICM's latest online EU poll is Remain 45%, Leave 45%. It comes with a method change, weighting up slow respondents: https://t.co/ntaVgeBcOo | ICM's latest online EU poll is Remain 45%, Leave 45%. It comes with a method change, weighting up slow respondents: https://t.co/ntaVgeBcOo |
| UPDATE: This is from Matt Singh’s NumbrCrunchrPolitics. | UPDATE: This is from Matt Singh’s NumbrCrunchrPolitics. |
| Important to note that this poll does NOT show a swing to Remain - old methodology shows the same thing as last week https://t.co/HSnS2QhqZY | Important to note that this poll does NOT show a swing to Remain - old methodology shows the same thing as last week https://t.co/HSnS2QhqZY |
| Updated | Updated |
| at 3.24pm BST | at 3.24pm BST |
| 2.24pm BST | 2.24pm BST |
| 14:24 | 14:24 |
| Fallon says Brexit would be 'absolutely applauded in Moscow' | Fallon says Brexit would be 'absolutely applauded in Moscow' |
| Richard Norton-Taylor | Richard Norton-Taylor |
| Leaving the EU would be an “extraordinarily irresponsible thing to do at a very dangerous moment”, and be “absolutely applauded in Moscow”, Michael Fallon, the defence secretary, told MPs on Tuesday. | Leaving the EU would be an “extraordinarily irresponsible thing to do at a very dangerous moment”, and be “absolutely applauded in Moscow”, Michael Fallon, the defence secretary, told MPs on Tuesday. |
| He seized the opportunity presented by an appearance before the Commons defence committee - chaired by the Brexit supporter Julian Lewis - to mount impassioned support for the UK remaining a member of the EU. | He seized the opportunity presented by an appearance before the Commons defence committee - chaired by the Brexit supporter Julian Lewis - to mount impassioned support for the UK remaining a member of the EU. |
| “A huge amount is hanging on the vote on 23 June not just for the people of this country but for the collective security of Europe and the West”, he told the crosssparty group of MPs. | “A huge amount is hanging on the vote on 23 June not just for the people of this country but for the collective security of Europe and the West”, he told the crosssparty group of MPs. |
| President Putin would not have had to pay a price for annexing Crimea and destabilising eastern Ukraine without the EU, and sanctions would have been much weaker had not Britain been a member of the EU, Fallon said. | President Putin would not have had to pay a price for annexing Crimea and destabilising eastern Ukraine without the EU, and sanctions would have been much weaker had not Britain been a member of the EU, Fallon said. |
| Britain was “in the lead” in getting the EU to impose tough trade and commercial sacntions on Russia, he insisted. “The fact we were there and able to lead the debate, the EU was able to ensure the toughest sanctions were imposed.” | Britain was “in the lead” in getting the EU to impose tough trade and commercial sacntions on Russia, he insisted. “The fact we were there and able to lead the debate, the EU was able to ensure the toughest sanctions were imposed.” |
| Tough sanctions “would not have happened without the EU and would not have happened if the UK was not within it”, Fallon told the MPs. | Tough sanctions “would not have happened without the EU and would not have happened if the UK was not within it”, Fallon told the MPs. |
| 2.09pm BST | 2.09pm BST |
| 14:09 | 14:09 |
| Lunchtime summary | Lunchtime summary |
| Obviously this is such a big issue that you do see arguments between political parties... and there are going to be passionate arguments, there’s going to be strong arguments and passion on both sides. | Obviously this is such a big issue that you do see arguments between political parties... and there are going to be passionate arguments, there’s going to be strong arguments and passion on both sides. |
| Do I believe at the end of this we can all come together and accept the result? Absolutely I do. | Do I believe at the end of this we can all come together and accept the result? Absolutely I do. |
| The one thing all Conservatives agree on is that it is right to have this referendum, right to have this debate and right to abide by the decision of the British people. | The one thing all Conservatives agree on is that it is right to have this referendum, right to have this debate and right to abide by the decision of the British people. |
| Do you accept on the Ukraine that Russian bombing of Syrian civilians to provoke refugees and to possibly tilt the balance in favour of Brexit is part of a strategy to basically fragment European resolve in terms of Ukraine? | Do you accept on the Ukraine that Russian bombing of Syrian civilians to provoke refugees and to possibly tilt the balance in favour of Brexit is part of a strategy to basically fragment European resolve in terms of Ukraine? |
| Philip Hammond, the foreign secretary, said he did not accept this. He replied: | Philip Hammond, the foreign secretary, said he did not accept this. He replied: |
| There is definitely a Russian strategy to try to fragment European resolve. I think it’s probably a step too far to suggest that Russia’s engagement in Syria is only designed to apply pressure over Ukraine. Russia has important and historic equities in Syria and is seeking to defend its interest there. | There is definitely a Russian strategy to try to fragment European resolve. I think it’s probably a step too far to suggest that Russia’s engagement in Syria is only designed to apply pressure over Ukraine. Russia has important and historic equities in Syria and is seeking to defend its interest there. |
| Updated | Updated |
| at 2.14pm BST | at 2.14pm BST |
| 1.45pm BST | 1.45pm BST |
| 13:45 | 13:45 |
| Corbyn calls for more 'strong women's voices' in EU referendum campaign | Corbyn calls for more 'strong women's voices' in EU referendum campaign |
| Harriet Harman, Labour’s former interim leader, has written to Ofcom to complain that male politicians are being allowed to dominate the EU referendum debate on the airwaves. She was highlighting this issue at an event this morning. | Harriet Harman, Labour’s former interim leader, has written to Ofcom to complain that male politicians are being allowed to dominate the EU referendum debate on the airwaves. She was highlighting this issue at an event this morning. |
| Jeremy Corbyn is now also saying that more women’s voices need to be heard in the EU referendum debate. In a speech to a rally in Hastings tonight he will say: | Jeremy Corbyn is now also saying that more women’s voices need to be heard in the EU referendum debate. In a speech to a rally in Hastings tonight he will say: |
| So far, the referendum debate taking place across the country, has been dominated by men, and mostly Tory men. This needs to change, we need to hear more diverse voices in this important debate, we need to hear more strong women’s voices. | So far, the referendum debate taking place across the country, has been dominated by men, and mostly Tory men. This needs to change, we need to hear more diverse voices in this important debate, we need to hear more strong women’s voices. |
| Women across the country are being let down by a Conservative government that is failing on housing, failing our NHS, failing to create good quality jobs and failing even against its own economic targets. | Women across the country are being let down by a Conservative government that is failing on housing, failing our NHS, failing to create good quality jobs and failing even against its own economic targets. |
| We’re going to hear a strong woman’s voice tomorrow. David Cameron will be missing PMQs, because he is going to Japan for the G7 summit, and so PMQs will be George Osborne v Angela Eagle. | We’re going to hear a strong woman’s voice tomorrow. David Cameron will be missing PMQs, because he is going to Japan for the G7 summit, and so PMQs will be George Osborne v Angela Eagle. |
| 1.28pm BST | 1.28pm BST |
| 13:28 | 13:28 |
| Patrick Wintour | Patrick Wintour |
| Tony Blair backed the tone of the Remain campaign saying they were mounting a strong campaign focussing on the right issues including the risks to the British economy household incomes and the country’s role in the world. | Tony Blair backed the tone of the Remain campaign saying they were mounting a strong campaign focussing on the right issues including the risks to the British economy household incomes and the country’s role in the world. |
| He also hinted he would be making a joint intervention with other former prime ministers Gordon Brown and Sir John Major to urge the country to stay in the EU “there is a role for former prime ministers,” he said. | He also hinted he would be making a joint intervention with other former prime ministers Gordon Brown and Sir John Major to urge the country to stay in the EU “there is a role for former prime ministers,” he said. |
| 1.26pm BST | 1.26pm BST |
| 13:26 | 13:26 |
| Rowena Mason | Rowena Mason |
| Millions of EU workers face uncertainty over whether they can stay in the UK, while British expats in Europe could also lose the right to remain, own property or get free healthcare in the event of Brexit, David Cameron has claimed. | Millions of EU workers face uncertainty over whether they can stay in the UK, while British expats in Europe could also lose the right to remain, own property or get free healthcare in the event of Brexit, David Cameron has claimed. |
| The prime minister said there was no guarantee that UK citizens abroad or EU citizens in the UK would maintain their rights to reside unless there is a vote to remain. | The prime minister said there was no guarantee that UK citizens abroad or EU citizens in the UK would maintain their rights to reside unless there is a vote to remain. |
| Brexit campaigners claim the rights of expats are preserved under the Vienna convention but a number of academic and legal opinions have argued that EU citizenship would end with Brexit. | Brexit campaigners claim the rights of expats are preserved under the Vienna convention but a number of academic and legal opinions have argued that EU citizenship would end with Brexit. |
| Cameron said such rights and others to own property and get healthcare in the EU were “certain if we stay and uncertain if we leave”, while also arguing that people could have to pay £60 for a Schengen visa just to travel through other European countries. | Cameron said such rights and others to own property and get healthcare in the EU were “certain if we stay and uncertain if we leave”, while also arguing that people could have to pay £60 for a Schengen visa just to travel through other European countries. |
| It is the latest in a long string of warnings from Cameron about problems that could be caused by leaving the EU, which have led to fury among Tory politicians pushing for the UK to leave. | It is the latest in a long string of warnings from Cameron about problems that could be caused by leaving the EU, which have led to fury among Tory politicians pushing for the UK to leave. |
| 1.22pm BST | 1.22pm BST |
| 13:22 | 13:22 |
| Blair says it is 'not yet a proven concept' that Corbynism can win an election | Blair says it is 'not yet a proven concept' that Corbynism can win an election |
| Patrick Wintour | Patrick Wintour |
| At the Prospect event this morning Tony Blair insisted that his brand of centre ground politics was not dead, but admitted that the centre ground was losing its traction and not providing answers to those that wanted an end to the status quo. | At the Prospect event this morning Tony Blair insisted that his brand of centre ground politics was not dead, but admitted that the centre ground was losing its traction and not providing answers to those that wanted an end to the status quo. |
| He claimed the source of some of the insurgent support for Donald Trump and Jeremy Corbyn was similar, saying “these people are riding the anger they are not providing the answers”. | He claimed the source of some of the insurgent support for Donald Trump and Jeremy Corbyn was similar, saying “these people are riding the anger they are not providing the answers”. |
| He also challenged Corbyn, centr saying: | He also challenged Corbyn, centr saying: |
| Let us say, it is not yet a proven concept that Corbynism can win an election. It is clear that they can take over a political party, what is not so clear to me yet is that they can take over a country. | Let us say, it is not yet a proven concept that Corbynism can win an election. It is clear that they can take over a political party, what is not so clear to me yet is that they can take over a country. |
| Where fringes of left and right meet each other is essentially as isolationists against free trade. It is true that the left want to hang the bankers and the right want to clear out the immigrants, but in the much of the psychology and attitude they have got a lot in common. | Where fringes of left and right meet each other is essentially as isolationists against free trade. It is true that the left want to hang the bankers and the right want to clear out the immigrants, but in the much of the psychology and attitude they have got a lot in common. |
| He said the centre is not back into contention, arguing at present centre ground politicians “look today as if we are managers of the status quo and not changers of it”. | He said the centre is not back into contention, arguing at present centre ground politicians “look today as if we are managers of the status quo and not changers of it”. |
| He also questioned the basis of Corbyn’s support in the Labour Party. | He also questioned the basis of Corbyn’s support in the Labour Party. |
| If you break down the analysis of the people who are joining the Labour party it is not clear to me those that should feel most angry about their personal situation and those joining are the same people. The world of the Twitterati is gives you a sense of belonging and a sense of insurgency. It was about shaking the system and rattling the cage. People do feel frustrated and social media gives them the ability to feel that at scale and at speed, and the centre looks as if we are saying it is all very complicated. We are not in the right conversation with people like this. | If you break down the analysis of the people who are joining the Labour party it is not clear to me those that should feel most angry about their personal situation and those joining are the same people. The world of the Twitterati is gives you a sense of belonging and a sense of insurgency. It was about shaking the system and rattling the cage. People do feel frustrated and social media gives them the ability to feel that at scale and at speed, and the centre looks as if we are saying it is all very complicated. We are not in the right conversation with people like this. |
| He said the centre ground should be discussing issues such as the role of technology and big data in public services, the use of monetary policy such as quantitative easing and the future of student debt. | He said the centre ground should be discussing issues such as the role of technology and big data in public services, the use of monetary policy such as quantitative easing and the future of student debt. |
| He also dismissed the binary debate over austerity saying it misunderstands the way economy works. | He also dismissed the binary debate over austerity saying it misunderstands the way economy works. |
| Updated | Updated |
| at 2.09pm BST | at 2.09pm BST |