This article is from the source 'guardian' and was first published or seen on . It last changed over 40 days ago and won't be checked again for changes.

You can find the current article at its original source at https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2016/may/24/michael-gove-eu-migration-claims-absurd-turkey

The article has changed 3 times. There is an RSS feed of changes available.

Version 0 Version 1
Why Michael Gove's EU migration claims are absurd Could Turkey really join the EU by 2020?
(35 minutes later)
Claims by the justice secretary, Michael Gove, and Vote Leave that Turkey could achieve full membership of the EU by 2020 will come as a big surprise to the Turkish government and people. Claims by the UK justice secretary, Michael Gove, and the Vote Leave campaign that Turkey could achieve full membership of the EU by 2020 will come as a big surprise to the Turkish government and people.
Turkey’s application has been languishing since 1987, when Ankara first asked Brussels to consider its case for joining. It was not officially recognised as a candidate until 1999. That was 17 years ago. Since then, things have not gone well. Formal negotiations did not begin for a further six years, and then they rapidly got bogged down, which is how matters broadly stand now. Turkey’s application has been languishing since 1987, when Ankara first asked Brussels to consider its case for joining. It was not officially recognised as a candidate until 1999. That was 17 years ago. Since then, things have not gone well. Formal negotiations did not begin for a further six years, and when they did they rapidly got bogged down – which is how matters broadly stand now.
Related: EU referendum: David Cameron tells easyJet staff the 'patriotic thing is to stay in' - live Aspiring members must adopt existing EU rules and standards. They do so in stages, a process that involves agreeing separately to each of 35 chapters. After nearly 30 years, only one negotiating chapter has been agreed with Turkey. Fifteen are, in theory, open for discussion, while talks about the remainder – the most difficult bits, such as freedom of movement – have not even begun.
Aspiring members must adopt EU rules and standards. They do so in stages, a process that involves agreeing separately to each of 35 chapters. After nearly 30 years, only one negotiating chapter has been agreed with Turkey. Fifteen are, in theory, open for discussion, while talks about the remainder – the most difficult bits, such as freedom of movement – have not even begun. Related: Will staying in EU really lead to an influx equal to Scottish population?
The main reason why matters have proceeded so slowly is that the EU’s big beasts, France and Germany, do not want Turkey to join. Hardly anything happens in the EU without the agreement of these two founding members. Nicolas Sarkozy, the former French president now tipped to return to the Élysée next spring, was first to put the boot in. Almost the first thing he did after he was elected in 2007 was to block talks with Turkey on economic and monetary policy. Sarkozy argued that Turkey was not part of Europe and had no place in the EU. François Hollande is similarly unsympathetic. The main reason why matters have proceeded so slowly is that the EU’s big beasts, France and Germany, do not want Turkey to join. Hardly anything happens in the EU without the agreement of these two founding members. Nicolas Sarkozy, the former French president and now tipped to return to the Élysée next spring, was first to put the boot in, and others followed. Almost the first thing Sarkozy did after he was elected in 2007 was block talks with Turkey on the key area of economic and monetary policy.
Angela Merkel, Germany’s long-serving chancellor, also opposes Turkish membership. Merkel has used the carrot of accelerated negotiations to facilitate a deal with Turkey on returning Syrian migrants. But her basic position, backed by large cross-party majorities in Germany, is that Turkey should not be granted full membership. Sarkozy argued that Turkey was geographically not part of Europe and had no place in the EU. François Hollande, Sarkozy’s successor, is similarly unsympathetic. More importantly, perhaps, Angela Merkel, Germany’s long-serving chancellor, also opposes Turkish membership. She repeated this view in a television interview in October last year. “Erdoğan knows this,” she said, referring to the Turkish president, Recep Tayyip Erdoğan.
And even if Turkey were somehow allowed in, the EU’s freedom of movement rules would almost certainly not apply at first. Like Romania and Bulgaria after they joined in 2007, Turkish workers would not be allowed simply to move to the UK or other EU states. Britain’s membership of the Schengen area creates another specific barrier. Merkel has used the carrot of accelerated negotiations to facilitate a deal with Turkey on returning Syrian migrants. But her basic position, backed by large cross-party majorities in Germany, is that Turkey should not be granted full membership. So, in short, even if David Cameron’s government enthusiastically advocated swift Turkish accession, which it does not, it would certainly be blocked, for the foreseeable future, by the EU’s two most powerful states, backed by other influential members such as Poland.
Related: Together the EU is greater than the sum of its parts | Daina Taimina And even if, despite all this, Turkey were somehow allowed in, the EU’s freedom of movement rules would almost certainly not apply in the first instance. Like Romania and Bulgaria after they joined in 2007, Turkish workers would not be allowed simply to move en masse to the UK or other EU states. Britain’s non-membership of the Schengen area creates another specific barrier in this respect.
Similar obstacles face other current EU applicants – Serbia, Macedonia, Montenegro and Albania. Apart from concerns about immigration and jobs, the EU is suffering “enlargement fatigue”. Many European politicians feel 28 member states is more than enough. New members are not welcome – and all 28 national parliaments have a right of veto. This reluctance, incidentally, would affect any membership bid by an independent Scotland. Similar obstacles face other current EU applicants – Serbia, Macedonia, Montenegro and Albania. Apart from specific concerns about immigration and jobs, the EU is suffering what is known as “enlargement fatigue”.
Turkey’s leaders and public know all this only too well, even if Gove and the Brexiters do not. Support for EU membership has dropped in Turkey in recent years, part of a backlash against perceived discriminatory treatment by what the president, Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, calls a “Christian club”. Many European politicians feel 28 member states is more than enough. New members are not welcome from any quarter – and all 28 national parliaments have a right of veto. This reluctance, incidentally, would affect any future membership bid by an independent Scotland.
Turkey under Erdoğan has turned eastwards, away from Europe. Stung by European criticism of human rights abuses and a crackdown on press freedom, he has sometimes given the impression he would like to scrap the EU talks altogether. The appointment of a party loyalist, Binali Yildirim, as prime minister elect, means Erdoğan’s Europhobia may develop unchecked. Vote Leave’s argument is borderline fantasy for other reasons. Although Turkey’s economy has faltered of late, its record of expansive GDP growth since the 1990s is impressive. Living standards have risen for most. Turkey’s leaders know all this only too well, as does the Turkish public – even if Gove and the Brexiters do not. Support for EU membership has dropped in Turkey in recent years, part of a backlash against perceived discriminatory treatment by what Erdoğan calls a “Christian club”.
Gove’s claim that more than 5 million people could move to the UK from the EU by 2030 reveals a surprising ignorance of European realities. Turkey under Erdoğan has turned eastwards, away from Europe, looking to wield influence in the lands of the old Ottoman empire. It has cultivated closer ties with Middle Eastern powers such as Saudi Arabia.
Stung by European criticism of human rights abuses and a crackdown on press freedom, Erdoğan has sometimes given the impression that he would like to scrap the EU talks altogether.
Sunday’s appointment of a party loyalist, Binali Yıldırım, as prime minister, who is expected to follow the president’s line in all main policy areas, means Erdoğan’s Europhobia may develop unchecked and become more extreme.
Vote Leave’s argument that millions of Turks would move to the UK if they could is borderline fantasy for other reasons. Although Turkey’s economy has faltered of late, its record of expansive GDP growth since the 1990s is impressive. Living standards have risen for most Turks amid rapid urbanisation.
In other words, Britain is a less attractive destination for Turkish economic migrants than it might think. Against this backdrop, Gove’s claim that more than 5 million people – exceeding the population of Scotland – could move to the UK from the EU by 2030 reveals a surprising ignorance of European realities. Truth be told, it’s a load of old kebab.