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Version 8 Version 9
Markets await US GDP growth figures and Yellen – business live US GDP growth revised higher, ahead of Yellen comments– business live
(35 minutes later)
2.02pm BST
14:02
A US interest rate rise in the next two months is unnecessary, given the uncertainty over the country’s economy evidenced by the revised first quarter GDP figures, suggest the CEBR. It said:
We still expect the remaining three quarters of 2016 to make up for the first quarter slowdown. Despite the seasonal adjustment process, first quarter GDP data are often unreliable and overly gloomy due to seasonal factors such as winter weather. Our view is also supported by consistently strong job creation figures and a rebound in consumer confidence. Consumer sentiment saw an uptick in May due to a strong labour market showing and expectations that both inflation and interest rates would remain low.
However, the chances that interest rates will remain lower for longer are slimmer now than they were earlier this month...The minutes from the [latest Federal Open Markets Committee] meeting, and statements made by Federal Reserve officials since, indicate that some FOMC members believe that the US labour market is at full employment and that this may start putting upward pressure on inflation.
Another, less official, consideration may be the US presidential election taking place in November. In the past the Fed has been reluctant to indirectly weigh into political debates and raising interest rates too close to the election would be interpreted as a signal regarding the institution’s opinion of economic prospects. Therefore, while the FOMC’s interest rate decision in June will be data-dependant, it may also be impacted by the realisation that if interest rates do not rise in June or July, they are very likely to remain at 0.5% until at least December.
Cebr believes that raising rates in June or July is premature and unnecessary. The inflationary environment remains benign and the US economy still faces numerous risks on the global front. Lacklustre growth in export markets is already creating problems for the country’s exporters. Further strengthening the US dollar via monetary policy tightening would make US-made products relatively more expensive and therefore less desirable for foreign buyers.
1.48pm BST
13:48
David Morrison, senior market strategist at Spreadco said:
The question is how this affects the odds on a Fed rate hike this summer? As far as the markets are concerned, not very much so far although it certainly keeps the prospect alive.
However, it’s unlikely investors will want to take on additional exposure ahead of Janet Yellen’s public appearance this evening and the long holiday weekend. Whether the Fed Chair says anything related to monetary policy is another matter altogether. What should prove far more significant is next week’s raft of manufacturing PMIs along with the latest US Non-Farm Payroll release.
Dennis de Jong, managing director at UFX.com, said:
Yesterday’s durable goods orders and home sales data would have put a smile on the face of Fed Chair Janet Yellen, but today’s underwhelming first quarter GDP report is unlikely to be as well-received.
It’s not the most positive start to the financial year for the US and observers will now be keen to see if momentum can pick up in the next quarter.
There’s plenty of talk about an interest rate rise, but Yellen and Co. are likely to wait for the data to support it before pushing the button.
1.47pm BST
13:47
Despite the revision, the figures show a slowdown in GDP compared to the fourth quarter which saw a 1.4% increase.
The overall figure was lifted by spending on home building and an increase in inventory investment by businesses.
1.34pm BST
13:34
US GDP revised higher
The US economy grew more than originally thought in the first quarter, but less than some economists had been expecting.
As various members of the Federal Reserve suggested that a rate hike in June was not off the table, official figures showed a 0.8% rise in GDP in the three months to March. This was higher than the first estimate of 0.5% but below estimates of a rise of 0.9%.
Updated
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12:5112:51
This really has been dullest morning in the City for a while.This really has been dullest morning in the City for a while.
Our old friend, the FTSE 100, is refusing to show any enthusiasm and is currently down a meagre 4 points.Our old friend, the FTSE 100, is refusing to show any enthusiasm and is currently down a meagre 4 points.
Investors are hoping that the US growth figures, in around 40 minutes, might cause a stir. Remember, economists expect the annualised growth rate in the last quarter to be revised up to 0.9%, from 0.4% before.Investors are hoping that the US growth figures, in around 40 minutes, might cause a stir. Remember, economists expect the annualised growth rate in the last quarter to be revised up to 0.9%, from 0.4% before.
Conner Campbell of SpreadEx (who gets a bonus mark for keeping awake, frankly), says:Conner Campbell of SpreadEx (who gets a bonus mark for keeping awake, frankly), says:
Friday continued at an alarmingly dull pace this morning, though there is the chance for a bit of excitement from the US open later this afternoon.Friday continued at an alarmingly dull pace this morning, though there is the chance for a bit of excitement from the US open later this afternoon.
The FTSE plodded along flat on the day, with the DAX and CAC effectively following the UK index’s lead. Both regions had nothing in the way of data to offer this Friday, and with Brent Crude threatening to fall below $49 per barrel were lacking the recent commodity-buzz that has helped push the indices to 3 week highs.The FTSE plodded along flat on the day, with the DAX and CAC effectively following the UK index’s lead. Both regions had nothing in the way of data to offer this Friday, and with Brent Crude threatening to fall below $49 per barrel were lacking the recent commodity-buzz that has helped push the indices to 3 week highs.
12.16pm BST12.16pm BST
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Putin's Greek visit could sow discord in EUPutin's Greek visit could sow discord in EU
Greece is prepares to welcome Russian president Vladimir Putin, amid tight security and fears that the visit will cause ructions within the EU.Greece is prepares to welcome Russian president Vladimir Putin, amid tight security and fears that the visit will cause ructions within the EU.
Putin’s visit is billed as a way of deepening economic and diplomatic ties between the two countries. He’ll be discussing trade, energy and transport issues, and meeting with President Prokopis Pavlopoulos and Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras.Putin’s visit is billed as a way of deepening economic and diplomatic ties between the two countries. He’ll be discussing trade, energy and transport issues, and meeting with President Prokopis Pavlopoulos and Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras.
2.500 police officers in #Athens - Tight security measures ahead of the visit of #Russian President Vladimir #Putin https://t.co/LIfjqM0Hl42.500 police officers in #Athens - Tight security measures ahead of the visit of #Russian President Vladimir #Putin https://t.co/LIfjqM0Hl4
Putin has already signalled that Moscow wants closer links with Athens, as the Greek newspaper Kathimerini explains:Putin has already signalled that Moscow wants closer links with Athens, as the Greek newspaper Kathimerini explains:
Moscow is primarily interested in buying state-run railway operator Trainose and a stake in Thessaloniki port, the country’s second largest, as Putin reiterated in a commentary for Kathimerini published on Thursday ahead of the visit.Moscow is primarily interested in buying state-run railway operator Trainose and a stake in Thessaloniki port, the country’s second largest, as Putin reiterated in a commentary for Kathimerini published on Thursday ahead of the visit.
He also said that Russia – Greece’s main gas supplier – is still very much interested in reviving the South Stream gas pipeline project.He also said that Russia – Greece’s main gas supplier – is still very much interested in reviving the South Stream gas pipeline project.
“The issue of our energy resources being carried through southern corridors to the countries of the European Union is still on the agenda,” Putin said“The issue of our energy resources being carried through southern corridors to the countries of the European Union is still on the agenda,” Putin said
But the sight of Russia’s president landing in Athens at a time when the EU is imposing sanctions is causing some concern.But the sight of Russia’s president landing in Athens at a time when the EU is imposing sanctions is causing some concern.
Daragh McDowell, a principal analyst for Europe and Central Asia at Verisk Maplecroft, told CNBC that Putin hopes to take advantage of anger within Greece about its years of austerity.Daragh McDowell, a principal analyst for Europe and Central Asia at Verisk Maplecroft, told CNBC that Putin hopes to take advantage of anger within Greece about its years of austerity.
“The extreme political and economic disruption Greece has experienced, in combination with existing cultural ties, make it a particularly attractive target for these kind of initiatives.“The extreme political and economic disruption Greece has experienced, in combination with existing cultural ties, make it a particularly attractive target for these kind of initiatives.
“Fundamentally these overtures are about sowing division and discord among the EU states in order to undermine the sanctions regime and, over the longer term, the EU as a whole.”“Fundamentally these overtures are about sowing division and discord among the EU states in order to undermine the sanctions regime and, over the longer term, the EU as a whole.”
Vladimir #Putin expected in Athens at 3.30pm local, to sign bilateral agreements. Visits Mt Athos Saturday. More @Monocle24 soon #GreeceVladimir #Putin expected in Athens at 3.30pm local, to sign bilateral agreements. Visits Mt Athos Saturday. More @Monocle24 soon #Greece
Putin due in Athens today, with foreign minister & businessmen. Off to Mt Athos on Saturda https://t.co/ekh8vmTfcd #Greece #RussiaPutin due in Athens today, with foreign minister & businessmen. Off to Mt Athos on Saturda https://t.co/ekh8vmTfcd #Greece #Russia
11.51am BST11.51am BST
11:5111:51
Resolution’s Duncan Weldon has now blogged about the IMF paper on the problems with neoliberal economics.Resolution’s Duncan Weldon has now blogged about the IMF paper on the problems with neoliberal economics.
He explains that it’s part of a wider change of thinking at the Fund, away from the “Washington consensus” that dominated thinking before the wheels came off the global economy in 2008.He explains that it’s part of a wider change of thinking at the Fund, away from the “Washington consensus” that dominated thinking before the wheels came off the global economy in 2008.
But the IMF is also pointing out the flaws in the policies implemented over the last eight years.But the IMF is also pointing out the flaws in the policies implemented over the last eight years.
Duncan argues that the criticism against austerity is understandable :Duncan argues that the criticism against austerity is understandable :
Excessive fiscal tightening in countries that still have fiscal space simply hasn’t worked as promised. There are plenty of countries with ample fiscal space that haven’t used it and the world economy has suffered as a result.Excessive fiscal tightening in countries that still have fiscal space simply hasn’t worked as promised. There are plenty of countries with ample fiscal space that haven’t used it and the world economy has suffered as a result.
And the Fund’s comments on capital controls reflect its concerns that ultra-loose monetary policy in the US and Europe has a severe impact on emerging markets. If The Fed won’t care about spillover effects, developing countries must take more precautions.And the Fund’s comments on capital controls reflect its concerns that ultra-loose monetary policy in the US and Europe has a severe impact on emerging markets. If The Fed won’t care about spillover effects, developing countries must take more precautions.
In this respect the Fund; move towards backing capital controls is a consequences of the failure of Western fiscal policy makers to do enough to support growth and the unwillingness of Western monetary policy makers to take into account the global consequences of their actions.In this respect the Fund; move towards backing capital controls is a consequences of the failure of Western fiscal policy makers to do enough to support growth and the unwillingness of Western monetary policy makers to take into account the global consequences of their actions.
A 3 minute read on "that" IMF article & why it's basically driven by advanced economy policymakers messing up: https://t.co/FuzbQk8ZNOA 3 minute read on "that" IMF article & why it's basically driven by advanced economy policymakers messing up: https://t.co/FuzbQk8ZNO
11.11am BST11.11am BST
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Jonathan Ostry, the IMF economist who co-wrote its critique of neoliberalism, is hoping to trigger a new debate about economic orthodoxy.Jonathan Ostry, the IMF economist who co-wrote its critique of neoliberalism, is hoping to trigger a new debate about economic orthodoxy.
The Financial Times has the details:The Financial Times has the details:
In an interview, Jonathan Ostry, deputy director of the IMF’s research department and the article’s lead author, said the new piece was not meant as an attack on “the entire neoliberal agenda or the Washington consensus”. But he hoped it would set the stage for a broader examination of “neoliberalism” that would come out this year.In an interview, Jonathan Ostry, deputy director of the IMF’s research department and the article’s lead author, said the new piece was not meant as an attack on “the entire neoliberal agenda or the Washington consensus”. But he hoped it would set the stage for a broader examination of “neoliberalism” that would come out this year.
It also fitted, he argued, with work on everything from austerity and inequality to debt and the desirability of open capital accounts that he and others have been publishing since the 2008 financial crisis — and with a growing sentiment in the broader economics community.It also fitted, he argued, with work on everything from austerity and inequality to debt and the desirability of open capital accounts that he and others have been publishing since the 2008 financial crisis — and with a growing sentiment in the broader economics community.
“There are a lot of people thinking the same thing at this point, that basically some aspects of the neoliberal agenda probably need a rethink,” he said. “The crisis said: ‘The way we’ve been thinking can’t be right’.”“There are a lot of people thinking the same thing at this point, that basically some aspects of the neoliberal agenda probably need a rethink,” he said. “The crisis said: ‘The way we’ve been thinking can’t be right’.”
Financial Times: IMF economists put ‘neoliberalism’ under the spotlightFinancial Times: IMF economists put ‘neoliberalism’ under the spotlight
10.29am BST10.29am BST
10:2910:29
IMF criticises neoliberalism (yes, THAT IMF).IMF criticises neoliberalism (yes, THAT IMF).
Neoliberal economics has attracted plenty of critics over the years, as the impact of privatisations, shrinking the state and austerity measures has become clear.Neoliberal economics has attracted plenty of critics over the years, as the impact of privatisations, shrinking the state and austerity measures has become clear.
And now, a team at the International Monetary Fund have delivered a remarkable attack on the consequences of neoliberalism.And now, a team at the International Monetary Fund have delivered a remarkable attack on the consequences of neoliberalism.
In a new paper they argue that the benefits of neoliberal policies has been over-blown, and its damage has been underplayed by policymakers.In a new paper they argue that the benefits of neoliberal policies has been over-blown, and its damage has been underplayed by policymakers.
They put their finger on two key issues – the impact of capital flows into emerging markets, and the austerity measures and fiscal tightening forced on governments.They put their finger on two key issues – the impact of capital flows into emerging markets, and the austerity measures and fiscal tightening forced on governments.
They conclude that neoliberalism simply hasn’t worked as well as supporters claim, and has created inequality that actually hurt growth.They conclude that neoliberalism simply hasn’t worked as well as supporters claim, and has created inequality that actually hurt growth.
Here’s their key conclusions:Here’s their key conclusions:
This won’t surprise those who have lived through the eurozone debt crisis, or previous economic perils. But it does highlight that some global policymakers are trying to learn from the mistakes of the past.This won’t surprise those who have lived through the eurozone debt crisis, or previous economic perils. But it does highlight that some global policymakers are trying to learn from the mistakes of the past.
The paper suggests that capital controls, once seen as a thoroughly bad thing, might actually have helped avoid causing economic problems.The paper suggests that capital controls, once seen as a thoroughly bad thing, might actually have helped avoid causing economic problems.
The IMF team even takes aim at the notion that running a budget surplus is a bright idea, asking:The IMF team even takes aim at the notion that running a budget surplus is a bright idea, asking:
Is there really a defensible case for countries like Germany, the United Kingdom, or the United States to pay down the public debt?Is there really a defensible case for countries like Germany, the United Kingdom, or the United States to pay down the public debt?
And they argue it’s probably not, because:And they argue it’s probably not, because:
Austerity policies not only generate substantial welfare costs due to supply-side channels, they also hurt demand—and thus worsen employment and unemployment.Austerity policies not only generate substantial welfare costs due to supply-side channels, they also hurt demand—and thus worsen employment and unemployment.
The piece does state that neoliberalism has had its benefits; global trade has lifted millions out of abject poverty, for example, while some privatisations have delivered better services.The piece does state that neoliberalism has had its benefits; global trade has lifted millions out of abject poverty, for example, while some privatisations have delivered better services.
But even so, “there are aspects of the neoliberal agenda that have not delivered as expected’.But even so, “there are aspects of the neoliberal agenda that have not delivered as expected’.
Here’s the full piece: Neoliberalism: Oversold?Here’s the full piece: Neoliberalism: Oversold?
Activist Naomi Klein points out that the damage has already been done:Activist Naomi Klein points out that the damage has already been done:
IMF admits neoliberalism is a failure. So all the billionaires it created are going to give back their money, right? https://t.co/CEd4t47Ws3IMF admits neoliberalism is a failure. So all the billionaires it created are going to give back their money, right? https://t.co/CEd4t47Ws3
While economist Duncan Weldon of the Resolution Foundation argues that the IMF really is changing:While economist Duncan Weldon of the Resolution Foundation argues that the IMF really is changing:
File under: 1. Continuing shift against open capital accounts. 2. Left attitude to the IMF being about a decade out of date.File under: 1. Continuing shift against open capital accounts. 2. Left attitude to the IMF being about a decade out of date.
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Mike van Dulken of Accendo Markets wonder if Yellen might play it cool at Harvard:Mike van Dulken of Accendo Markets wonder if Yellen might play it cool at Harvard:
In focus today will likely be Fed Chair Yellen’s speech after the European close, especially after her colleagues (mostly non-voters) were out in force this week swaying expectations about a Summer rate hike.In focus today will likely be Fed Chair Yellen’s speech after the European close, especially after her colleagues (mostly non-voters) were out in force this week swaying expectations about a Summer rate hike.
Note, however, Yellen is only receiving an award from Harvard so may well swerve explicit mention of US monetary policy to avoid adding fuel to the fire.Note, however, Yellen is only receiving an award from Harvard so may well swerve explicit mention of US monetary policy to avoid adding fuel to the fire.
9.17am BST9.17am BST
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Janet Yellen’s comments may not come until around 5.30pm BST, or later.Janet Yellen’s comments may not come until around 5.30pm BST, or later.
She’s due to speak at a lunch at Harvard, along with her predecessor Ben Bernanke. More details here.She’s due to speak at a lunch at Harvard, along with her predecessor Ben Bernanke. More details here.
9.06am BST9.06am BST
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Yellen could send US dollar bulls rampagingYellen could send US dollar bulls rampaging
Janet Yellen could move the markets today, when she visits Harvard to collect the Radcliffe Medal in recognition of her work.Janet Yellen could move the markets today, when she visits Harvard to collect the Radcliffe Medal in recognition of her work.
FXTM Research Analyst Lukman Otunuga says investors will be watching the Fed chair closely, for any hints that a rate hike could be close.FXTM Research Analyst Lukman Otunuga says investors will be watching the Fed chair closely, for any hints that a rate hike could be close.
Sentiment towards the US economy has improved this month with an impressive array of domestic data bolstering speculation that US rates could be increased in June or July. With retail sales, inflation and new homes sales exceeding forecasts, the prerequisites for another US rate hike in Q2 could be fulfilled if US GDP and next week’s NFP exceed expectations.Sentiment towards the US economy has improved this month with an impressive array of domestic data bolstering speculation that US rates could be increased in June or July. With retail sales, inflation and new homes sales exceeding forecasts, the prerequisites for another US rate hike in Q2 could be fulfilled if US GDP and next week’s NFP exceed expectations.
Yellen’s comments could act as a catalyst today for Dollar bulls to rampage if she chants the same hawkish tune as the other board governors. Although the CME group Fedwatch tool displays a 26% probability that a June hike could occur, concerns over slowing global growth and persistent China woes may also disrupt the Fed’s efforts to take action.Yellen’s comments could act as a catalyst today for Dollar bulls to rampage if she chants the same hawkish tune as the other board governors. Although the CME group Fedwatch tool displays a 26% probability that a June hike could occur, concerns over slowing global growth and persistent China woes may also disrupt the Fed’s efforts to take action.
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Europe’s stock markets are open, but frankly there’s little happening out there.Europe’s stock markets are open, but frankly there’s little happening out there.
The main indices are all broadly unchanged, as investors wait for the US growth figures at 1.30pm BST.The main indices are all broadly unchanged, as investors wait for the US growth figures at 1.30pm BST.
Some traders may also be pondering the long weekend (there’s a bank holiday on Monday), or wondering how England will fare against Sri Lanka in the Test Match (probably rather well).Some traders may also be pondering the long weekend (there’s a bank holiday on Monday), or wondering how England will fare against Sri Lanka in the Test Match (probably rather well).
Mining shares are leading the risers in London, where the FTSE has managed to rise by 3 whole points.Mining shares are leading the risers in London, where the FTSE has managed to rise by 3 whole points.
Tony Cross of TrustNet Direct explains:Tony Cross of TrustNet Direct explains:
Commodity stocks are still finding favour, helped in no small part by US dollar weakness amidst the idea that the Fed may not be in a position to hike rates next month as had been earlier thought.Commodity stocks are still finding favour, helped in no small part by US dollar weakness amidst the idea that the Fed may not be in a position to hike rates next month as had been earlier thought.
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A glimmer of good news from across the Channel.A glimmer of good news from across the Channel.
French consumer confidence has hit its highest level since October 2007, when the world economy was reeling from the credit crunch.French consumer confidence has hit its highest level since October 2007, when the world economy was reeling from the credit crunch.
The country’s main consumer confidence gauge has jumped to 98 in May, which beats economists’ expectations of 95. That’s tantalising close to the long-term consumer confidence average of 100.The country’s main consumer confidence gauge has jumped to 98 in May, which beats economists’ expectations of 95. That’s tantalising close to the long-term consumer confidence average of 100.
French shoppers are having their best month since the financial crisis https://t.co/IlsPshgm2P pic.twitter.com/0Ywl8x0IaeFrench shoppers are having their best month since the financial crisis https://t.co/IlsPshgm2P pic.twitter.com/0Ywl8x0Iae
I do wonder, though, whether the clashes on the streets this week will hurt confidence.I do wonder, though, whether the clashes on the streets this week will hurt confidence.
Tens of thousands of people have been protesting against legislation to make it easier to both hire and fire workers, prompting clashes with riot police yesterday.Tens of thousands of people have been protesting against legislation to make it easier to both hire and fire workers, prompting clashes with riot police yesterday.
My colleague Angelique Chrisafis explains:My colleague Angelique Chrisafis explains:
Striking French workers continued to disrupt oil refineries and nuclear power stations, halted some air traffic and trains and prevented almost all national newspapers from printing in the growing industrial action. Union activists blocked roads and bridges in northern France while some train drivers and air traffic controllers joined the action.Striking French workers continued to disrupt oil refineries and nuclear power stations, halted some air traffic and trains and prevented almost all national newspapers from printing in the growing industrial action. Union activists blocked roads and bridges in northern France while some train drivers and air traffic controllers joined the action.
Related: Riot police crack down on Paris protests against labour reformsRelated: Riot police crack down on Paris protests against labour reforms
8.43am BST8.43am BST
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World leaders at the G7 meeting in Tokyo have declared that global growth is their “urgent priority”, but not actually announced any new measures to deal with it.World leaders at the G7 meeting in Tokyo have declared that global growth is their “urgent priority”, but not actually announced any new measures to deal with it.
The official declaration following the meeting declares:The official declaration following the meeting declares:
Global growth remains moderate and below potential, while risks of weak growth persist.....Global growth remains moderate and below potential, while risks of weak growth persist.....
They then warn that growth is “moderate and uneven”, while global trade is disappointing.They then warn that growth is “moderate and uneven”, while global trade is disappointing.
David Cameron, the UK PM, has also managed to get a reference to next month’s EU referendum into the communique. Leaders have agreed that Brexit would harm international trade, and is a “further serious risk” to growth.David Cameron, the UK PM, has also managed to get a reference to next month’s EU referendum into the communique. Leaders have agreed that Brexit would harm international trade, and is a “further serious risk” to growth.
G7 world leaders declare: "UK exit from the EU..serious risk to growth" "would reverse trend towards greater trade" pic.twitter.com/hYifbvqw4xG7 world leaders declare: "UK exit from the EU..serious risk to growth" "would reverse trend towards greater trade" pic.twitter.com/hYifbvqw4x
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at 9.28am BSTat 9.28am BST
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Japanese PM hints at delay to sales taxJapanese PM hints at delay to sales tax
Japan’s stock market has gained ground today, following reports that prime minister Shinzo Abe is considering postponing one of his flagship policies.Japan’s stock market has gained ground today, following reports that prime minister Shinzo Abe is considering postponing one of his flagship policies.
Abe dropped a broad hint earlier today that the planned hike in sales tax could be delayed.Abe dropped a broad hint earlier today that the planned hike in sales tax could be delayed.
This tax was a crucial part of Abe’s attempts to improve Japan’s financial situation, but with the economy weak and inflation low, a rethink could be on the cards.This tax was a crucial part of Abe’s attempts to improve Japan’s financial situation, but with the economy weak and inflation low, a rethink could be on the cards.
Abe told a press conference at the G7 meeting that:Abe told a press conference at the G7 meeting that:
“We must reignite powerfully the engine of Abenomics. That undoubtedly would include a decision on what to do with the sales tax hike.”“We must reignite powerfully the engine of Abenomics. That undoubtedly would include a decision on what to do with the sales tax hike.”
A postponement probably would help consumer confidence and economic growth. However, it would undermine Abe’s commitment to improving Japan’s troubling fiscal position (a national debt of more than 200% of GDP).A postponement probably would help consumer confidence and economic growth. However, it would undermine Abe’s commitment to improving Japan’s troubling fiscal position (a national debt of more than 200% of GDP).
#Japan's Nikkei ends up 0.4% at 16834.84 on reports Abe will delay hike to sales tax. pic.twitter.com/vXm8ZMFDdv#Japan's Nikkei ends up 0.4% at 16834.84 on reports Abe will delay hike to sales tax. pic.twitter.com/vXm8ZMFDdv
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The agenda: US GDP and Yellen speech awaitedThe agenda: US GDP and Yellen speech awaited
Good morning, and welcome to our rolling coverage of the world economy, the financial markets, the eurozone and business.Good morning, and welcome to our rolling coverage of the world economy, the financial markets, the eurozone and business.
It’s Friday, and it’s a bit quiet. But there are still a few events coming up that might get the blood pumping.It’s Friday, and it’s a bit quiet. But there are still a few events coming up that might get the blood pumping.
Investors are mainly waiting for the second estimate of America’s growth in the first three months of the year, at 1.30pm BST.Investors are mainly waiting for the second estimate of America’s growth in the first three months of the year, at 1.30pm BST.
The first estimate was pretty dire, showing that growth slowed to an annual rate of just 0.4%. But with more data now available, economists believe we could get an upgrade to perhaps 0.9%. That’s still only a quarterly rate of around 0.2%, but it would calm fears that the US economy was faltering.The first estimate was pretty dire, showing that growth slowed to an annual rate of just 0.4%. But with more data now available, economists believe we could get an upgrade to perhaps 0.9%. That’s still only a quarterly rate of around 0.2%, but it would calm fears that the US economy was faltering.
All US data is currently seen through the lens of monetary policy, and whether it’s strong enough to prompt an interest rate rise soon.All US data is currently seen through the lens of monetary policy, and whether it’s strong enough to prompt an interest rate rise soon.
America’s top central banker, Janet Yellen, might have something to say about that when she visits Harvard (where she taught in the early 1970s).America’s top central banker, Janet Yellen, might have something to say about that when she visits Harvard (where she taught in the early 1970s).
RBS Capital Markets explains:RBS Capital Markets explains:
Yellen speaks at Harvard’s Radcliffe Day, where she will engage in “a conversation about her groundbreaking achievements.” The widespread expectation is, of course, that she will reiterate the more hawkish line taken by almost all recent Fed speakers.Yellen speaks at Harvard’s Radcliffe Day, where she will engage in “a conversation about her groundbreaking achievements.” The widespread expectation is, of course, that she will reiterate the more hawkish line taken by almost all recent Fed speakers.
That event begins at 3.30pm BST, or 10.30am local time.That event begins at 3.30pm BST, or 10.30am local time.
Otherwise, the economics calendar is as bare as Old Mother Hubbard’s cupboard before payday.Otherwise, the economics calendar is as bare as Old Mother Hubbard’s cupboard before payday.
But we’ll also keep one eye on Japan, where the G7 leaders meeting is wrapping up. Our G7 liveblog is here:But we’ll also keep one eye on Japan, where the G7 leaders meeting is wrapping up. Our G7 liveblog is here:
Related: G7 summit: Obama makes historic visit to Hiroshima – liveRelated: G7 summit: Obama makes historic visit to Hiroshima – live
The other eye will be on Greece, where Russian president Vladimir Putin is paying a visit to Athens (having been blackballed from the G7) . This trip will is likely to reignite concerns in Brussels that Moscow could be using austerity-gripped Greece as a lever to divide Europe.The other eye will be on Greece, where Russian president Vladimir Putin is paying a visit to Athens (having been blackballed from the G7) . This trip will is likely to reignite concerns in Brussels that Moscow could be using austerity-gripped Greece as a lever to divide Europe.
Officially, the visit will deliver a “number of bilateral agreements” and will focus on trade, investment and joint energy and transport projects.Officially, the visit will deliver a “number of bilateral agreements” and will focus on trade, investment and joint energy and transport projects.
We’ll be tracking all the main events through the day (and hoping the newsflow picks up a bit)We’ll be tracking all the main events through the day (and hoping the newsflow picks up a bit)
UpdatedUpdated
at 9.16am BSTat 9.16am BST