Drawing Lessons From the Scottish Referendum as E.U. Vote Nears

http://www.nytimes.com/2016/06/02/world/europe/brexit-scottish-referendum-eu.html

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LONDON — The Scottish referendum of September 2014 was notable for its bitterness and nastiness, especially on social media.

The defeat of the Scottish National Party and its long campaign for independence did leave a legacy, however, bringing many disappointed young people into politics. Eight months later, in the 2015 general election, the S.N.P. turned Scotland into a nearly one-party state.

Douglas Alexander was one of the victims of this massive swing. A national figure as the Labour Party’s shadow foreign secretary and the manager of Ed Miliband’s doomed campaign for prime minister, Mr. Alexander lost his seat in his hometown, Paisley, to the youngest person elected to Parliament in centuries, Mhairi Black, then 20.

Mr. Alexander, like another defeated Labour notable, the shadow chancellor Ed Balls, sought refuge at Harvard. But he is back in Britain to campaign for continued membership in the European Union, with the June 23 referendum becoming as divisive and nasty as the one in Scotland.

And he has some lessons from the Scottish experience to impart.

First, he said, “psychology matters more than psephology” — ignore the polls, at least until the very end. Both telephone and internet polls are flawed when assessing support for referendums, because they are so rare, and what matters will be “the overriding question in people’s minds as they vote.”

So it will be vital to manage the news cycle in the last 10 days, to shape the anxieties and aspirations of voters. In Scotland, opponents of independence focused on the economic risks and the inability of the “yes” side to answer crucial questions about currency and the sustainability of the oil-based economy.

Now, both sides are pushing fear. Those who support membership are concentrating on the economic risks, while those who favor Brexit, as it is commonly known, are concentrating on immigration and risks to British identity.

“Cost versus control,” Mr. Alexander said.

But “you also need a movement, not just an argument,” since for voters, “emotion matters as much as facts,” he said.

The Remain side must speak to British patriotism and the benefits of the European Union, not just spout statistics. It is quite possible, as he understood at some point during the Scottish campaign, “to win the argument but lose the audience.”

“It needs to be a conversation within the country about the country,” he said. “Not a conversation on the Eurostar. You need to give people emotional permission to accept the evidence,” so sincerity matters more than any choice of words.

While social media can be ugly and even painful, it is vital “to get people to voluntarily share information with their contacts and friends.” Information garnered that way is “more credible,” because it comes from someone a voter has already decided to follow and trust.

In the Scottish vote, Mr. Alexander said, “social media and Facebook mattered more than the print media.”

Lastly, Mr. Alexander warns that anger and bitterness last long after the vote.

“Referendums have an afterlife,” he said. “This will not settle it for a generation,” contrary to what Prime Minister David Cameron has said, any more than the Scottish referendum has settled the issue of independence.

Voters politicized on such a vital issue don’t go back to sleep, much as newlyweds buy bridal magazines a year after the wedding, Mr. Alexander noted.

“The experience remains in the mind and in the memory,” he said.

So it is difficult, he said, to see how the Conservative Party will easily bind such deep wounds, which bleed every day into the press, social media and television.

For this referendum, unlike in Scotland, has been driven by a decades-long split in the Conservative Party; underneath, it is also a battle for party leadership and ultimately for 10 Downing Street.

Referendums both energize and divide. The former Canadian prime minister Jean Chrétien, talking about Quebec’s own bitter independence referendums, said, “You’re breaking the dreams of your neighbors.”