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Don’t doubt it. Brexit would hurt the NHS Don’t doubt it. Brexit would hurt the NHS
(3 months later)
As we count down to the EU referendum, there has been rhetoric and scaremongering from both camps on what an exit would mean for our National Health Service. Although there are concerns on both sides about the Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership (TTIP), Brexiters cite that, and immigration from Europe, as major risk factors to the NHS, which is already struggling with rising demand for healthcare, an ageing population and a deficit of £2.45bn.As we count down to the EU referendum, there has been rhetoric and scaremongering from both camps on what an exit would mean for our National Health Service. Although there are concerns on both sides about the Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership (TTIP), Brexiters cite that, and immigration from Europe, as major risk factors to the NHS, which is already struggling with rising demand for healthcare, an ageing population and a deficit of £2.45bn.
TTIP would apply to the market element of services, and – in theory – the NHS should not be affected. The EU has said it is looking to make an exception in the treaty for health services in member states. However, TTIP is still being negotiated between the EU and US, so it is difficult to ascertain what impact it will have on competition rules and privatisation of healthcare services. It is difficult to make an argument for Brexit based on what TTIP may or may not do to the NHS.TTIP would apply to the market element of services, and – in theory – the NHS should not be affected. The EU has said it is looking to make an exception in the treaty for health services in member states. However, TTIP is still being negotiated between the EU and US, so it is difficult to ascertain what impact it will have on competition rules and privatisation of healthcare services. It is difficult to make an argument for Brexit based on what TTIP may or may not do to the NHS.
The UK attracts the most skilled workers from Europe, who make up around 10% of NHS doctors and 4% of nursesThe UK attracts the most skilled workers from Europe, who make up around 10% of NHS doctors and 4% of nurses
The demand on our public services is considerable. The population is rising, and will increase by 10 million in the next 25 years – by 2047 the UK will be Europe’s most populous country. Immigration has costs and benefits – EU migrants who move here for work tend to be better educated than the UK-born population. The UK attracts many skilled workers from Europe. They make up around 10% of NHS doctors and 4% of nurses.The demand on our public services is considerable. The population is rising, and will increase by 10 million in the next 25 years – by 2047 the UK will be Europe’s most populous country. Immigration has costs and benefits – EU migrants who move here for work tend to be better educated than the UK-born population. The UK attracts many skilled workers from Europe. They make up around 10% of NHS doctors and 4% of nurses.
Although some studies have highlighted a small negative impact on local people who face competition from migrant workers – particularly for low-paid jobs – the impact has been small: a 1% reduction in wages for UK-born citizens over eight years.Although some studies have highlighted a small negative impact on local people who face competition from migrant workers – particularly for low-paid jobs – the impact has been small: a 1% reduction in wages for UK-born citizens over eight years.
Other studies have highlighted the positive economic contribution of migrants. Between 2001 and 2011, the net contribution of migrants from countries that joined the EU in 2004 or 2007 was more than that of non-migrant British citizens, who received more in public spending than they paid in tax. Tax paid by EU migrants far outweighs welfare given to them – a net contribution of £20bn between 2000 and 2011. However, this does not take into account the impact on public services of migrants staying in the UK into old age when their economic contribution would decline. Pressures on housing and public services already pose significant challenges to the government. The pace of change within the NHS has not been enough to meet the health needs of our growing population.Other studies have highlighted the positive economic contribution of migrants. Between 2001 and 2011, the net contribution of migrants from countries that joined the EU in 2004 or 2007 was more than that of non-migrant British citizens, who received more in public spending than they paid in tax. Tax paid by EU migrants far outweighs welfare given to them – a net contribution of £20bn between 2000 and 2011. However, this does not take into account the impact on public services of migrants staying in the UK into old age when their economic contribution would decline. Pressures on housing and public services already pose significant challenges to the government. The pace of change within the NHS has not been enough to meet the health needs of our growing population.
Over the years, the EU contribution to our workforce has been facilitated by the single-market rules, which provide the legal basis for laws on recognition of professional qualifications – allowing healthcare staff to work anywhere in Europe. Perhaps the EU’s greatest contribution to the NHS has been the minimum standards on employment rights and health and safety at work, which protect workers through the European Working Time Directive. The EWTD has applied to junior doctors since 2004.Over the years, the EU contribution to our workforce has been facilitated by the single-market rules, which provide the legal basis for laws on recognition of professional qualifications – allowing healthcare staff to work anywhere in Europe. Perhaps the EU’s greatest contribution to the NHS has been the minimum standards on employment rights and health and safety at work, which protect workers through the European Working Time Directive. The EWTD has applied to junior doctors since 2004.
Related: UK gains £20bn from European migrants, UCL economists reveal
Although the EWTD has been difficult to implement and maintain (with hospitals seeing many rota gaps from doctor shortages), it has helped to limit unsafe working and prevent doctor fatigue – and the risks this poses to staff and patients.Although the EWTD has been difficult to implement and maintain (with hospitals seeing many rota gaps from doctor shortages), it has helped to limit unsafe working and prevent doctor fatigue – and the risks this poses to staff and patients.
In campaigners argue that leaving the EU would cause a massive staffing crisis in the NHS, at a time when thousands of doctor and nurse posts remain vacant. There is some evidence for this: in 2010 there was a capping of entry from non-EU countries (even those who had job offers in the UK were only allowed entry in restricted numbers). This seemed to correspond with nursing shortages over the last few years.In campaigners argue that leaving the EU would cause a massive staffing crisis in the NHS, at a time when thousands of doctor and nurse posts remain vacant. There is some evidence for this: in 2010 there was a capping of entry from non-EU countries (even those who had job offers in the UK were only allowed entry in restricted numbers). This seemed to correspond with nursing shortages over the last few years.
It is likely that we will see more healthcare collaboration between EU countries and more access to EU funds for NHS projects, which will support innovation, create jobs and improve health outcomes. It is true that some of our highly skilled NHS workforce from the EU would leave the UK in the event of Brexit. The NHS has neither the capacity nor the money to survive this. So remaining in the EU is our best chance of creating and sustaining a modern NHS healthcare system that can meet the challenges that lie ahead.It is likely that we will see more healthcare collaboration between EU countries and more access to EU funds for NHS projects, which will support innovation, create jobs and improve health outcomes. It is true that some of our highly skilled NHS workforce from the EU would leave the UK in the event of Brexit. The NHS has neither the capacity nor the money to survive this. So remaining in the EU is our best chance of creating and sustaining a modern NHS healthcare system that can meet the challenges that lie ahead.