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You can find the current article at its original source at https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2016/jun/09/brexit-living-standards-uk-ipsos-mori
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UK poll finds just 25% believe Brexit would reduce living standards | UK poll finds just 25% believe Brexit would reduce living standards |
(3 months later) | |
Just a quarter of voters believe that Britain leaving the European Union would make them poorer, according to new polling that suggests the remain campaign’s central message is failing to hit home. | Just a quarter of voters believe that Britain leaving the European Union would make them poorer, according to new polling that suggests the remain campaign’s central message is failing to hit home. |
Britain Stronger in Europe has poured resources into convincing the public that a vote to leave on 23 June would jeopardise economic growth and hit jobs; the Treasury published research suggesting it would cost the average household £4,300. | Britain Stronger in Europe has poured resources into convincing the public that a vote to leave on 23 June would jeopardise economic growth and hit jobs; the Treasury published research suggesting it would cost the average household £4,300. |
But while 63% of those polled by Ipsos Mori thought leaving the EU would reduce immigration – the central thrust of the leave campaign – just 25% thought it would reduce their own living standards. The poll was commissioned by the UK in a Changing Europe, a group of non-partisan academics. | But while 63% of those polled by Ipsos Mori thought leaving the EU would reduce immigration – the central thrust of the leave campaign – just 25% thought it would reduce their own living standards. The poll was commissioned by the UK in a Changing Europe, a group of non-partisan academics. |
This suggests that with a fortnight to go before the vote, and the polls pointing to a close race, the remain camp’s key proposition – that leaving the EU would “put a bomb under the economy”, as David Cameron called it – has either not reached the public, or is not believed. | This suggests that with a fortnight to go before the vote, and the polls pointing to a close race, the remain camp’s key proposition – that leaving the EU would “put a bomb under the economy”, as David Cameron called it – has either not reached the public, or is not believed. |
More than a tenth of voters – 13% – said they believed they would be better off after a Brexit; the remainder said it would make no difference, or they didn’t know. | More than a tenth of voters – 13% – said they believed they would be better off after a Brexit; the remainder said it would make no difference, or they didn’t know. |
Ipsos Mori’s Bobby Duffy said: “The survey points to some key communication challenges and opportunities for the campaigns. In particular, it seems that while the Remain camp may be winning on the macroeconomic case, people are not convinced this will have any impact on their own standard of living. ‘Project Fear’ will be much less effective if we think it’s only happening to someone else.” | Ipsos Mori’s Bobby Duffy said: “The survey points to some key communication challenges and opportunities for the campaigns. In particular, it seems that while the Remain camp may be winning on the macroeconomic case, people are not convinced this will have any impact on their own standard of living. ‘Project Fear’ will be much less effective if we think it’s only happening to someone else.” |
George Osborne produced a small part of an Airbus plane wing on Wednesday night when interviewed on the BBC, as part of a bid to make the risks to jobs from leaving the EU single market tangible. Britain Stronger in Europe’s latest poster shows a shuttered shop with the slogan “out of Europe, out of work”. | George Osborne produced a small part of an Airbus plane wing on Wednesday night when interviewed on the BBC, as part of a bid to make the risks to jobs from leaving the EU single market tangible. Britain Stronger in Europe’s latest poster shows a shuttered shop with the slogan “out of Europe, out of work”. |
The survey also revealed a series of public misperceptions about the EU and what it means for daily life. Those surveyed believe 15% of the population (10.5m people) is made up of EU migrants, compared to 5% (3.5m people) in reality. Voters also tended to overestimate the UK’s financial contribution to the EU, the research found, with nearly a quarter (23%) saying the UK is the single top contributor, while in reality, it is fourth, behind Germany, France and Italy. | The survey also revealed a series of public misperceptions about the EU and what it means for daily life. Those surveyed believe 15% of the population (10.5m people) is made up of EU migrants, compared to 5% (3.5m people) in reality. Voters also tended to overestimate the UK’s financial contribution to the EU, the research found, with nearly a quarter (23%) saying the UK is the single top contributor, while in reality, it is fourth, behind Germany, France and Italy. |
However, few of those surveyed said they believed the public would actually vote to leave the EU on 23 June: 51% said Britain would vote to remain, against 23% who thought the outcome would be leave. | However, few of those surveyed said they believed the public would actually vote to leave the EU on 23 June: 51% said Britain would vote to remain, against 23% who thought the outcome would be leave. |
Anand Menon, director of the UK in a Changing Europe and professor of European politics and foreign affairs at King’s College London, said: “It’s now more imperative than ever that the public can be provided with as much factual information about the EU as possible before they cast their vote.” | Anand Menon, director of the UK in a Changing Europe and professor of European politics and foreign affairs at King’s College London, said: “It’s now more imperative than ever that the public can be provided with as much factual information about the EU as possible before they cast their vote.” |