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| Many Australians don't understand new Senate voting system, poll finds Many Australians don't understand new Senate voting system, poll finds | |
| (about 2 hours later) | |
| A huge number of Australians do not understand the new Senate voting system, meaning many ballots could be cast in such a way that some votes are exhausted, polling has found. | A huge number of Australians do not understand the new Senate voting system, meaning many ballots could be cast in such a way that some votes are exhausted, polling has found. |
| It means the last Senate seats to be won around the country may be won with a low primary vote, contradicting the original point of the Senate voting reforms. | It means the last Senate seats to be won around the country may be won with a low primary vote, contradicting the original point of the Senate voting reforms. |
| The polling also suggests the Coalition is in danger of not being able to have a workable Senate majority after the election, so it may not be able to pass legislation without the help of Pauline Hanson or the Greens. | The polling also suggests the Coalition is in danger of not being able to have a workable Senate majority after the election, so it may not be able to pass legislation without the help of Pauline Hanson or the Greens. |
| The left-leaning thinktank the Australia Institute conducted a national opinion poll of 1,437 people through a group called Research Now, between 23 May and 3 June. | The left-leaning thinktank the Australia Institute conducted a national opinion poll of 1,437 people through a group called Research Now, between 23 May and 3 June. |
| The poll provides nationally representative samples by gender, age and state or territory. | The poll provides nationally representative samples by gender, age and state or territory. |
| It asked questions about voting intentions in the House of Representatives and the Senate, as well as about the Senate voting system. | It asked questions about voting intentions in the House of Representatives and the Senate, as well as about the Senate voting system. |
| It found a large number of Australians did not understand how the new Senate voting system will work. | It found a large number of Australians did not understand how the new Senate voting system will work. |
| The new system requires voters to number at least six boxes above the line, or at least 12 boxes below the line. | The new system requires voters to number at least six boxes above the line, or at least 12 boxes below the line. |
| When asked how many boxes are need to be filled in above the line, only 29% of people correctly knew to number at least six boxes. | When asked how many boxes are need to be filled in above the line, only 29% of people correctly knew to number at least six boxes. |
| The polling found 33% said they would nominate “1” in only one box above the line, which is incorrect. Their votes will still count if that happens, but it means they must be set aside from the count after that one vote is counted, because they show no further valid preference. | The polling found 33% said they would nominate “1” in only one box above the line, which is incorrect. Their votes will still count if that happens, but it means they must be set aside from the count after that one vote is counted, because they show no further valid preference. |
| The polling also found 14% think they need to either tick “every box” or “at least 12 boxes”, which is more than is required as a minimum. And 24% said they did not know what to do. | The polling also found 14% think they need to either tick “every box” or “at least 12 boxes”, which is more than is required as a minimum. And 24% said they did not know what to do. |
| Ben Oquist, the Australia Institute’s executive director, said although Senate polling was unreliable, reading these results in conjunction with published House of Representatives polls suggested the Coalition would struggle to hold some Senate seats. | Ben Oquist, the Australia Institute’s executive director, said although Senate polling was unreliable, reading these results in conjunction with published House of Representatives polls suggested the Coalition would struggle to hold some Senate seats. |
| “The low level of understanding of the new voting system means last seats could be won with a fraction of a quota,” Oquist said. | “The low level of understanding of the new voting system means last seats could be won with a fraction of a quota,” Oquist said. |
| “Too many voters currently say they might just vote 1 in the Senate. While such a vote will be counted it may well be effectively a ‘wasted’ vote. | “Too many voters currently say they might just vote 1 in the Senate. While such a vote will be counted it may well be effectively a ‘wasted’ vote. |
| “It would be good to hear more from the political leaders – not just the AEC – about how to vote in the new Senate system so voters now how to maximise the power of their vote.” | “It would be good to hear more from the political leaders – not just the AEC – about how to vote in the new Senate system so voters now how to maximise the power of their vote.” |
| The polling also asked about voting intentions in the Senate: 34% said they would vote Liberal, 33% Labor, and 12% Greens. | The polling also asked about voting intentions in the Senate: 34% said they would vote Liberal, 33% Labor, and 12% Greens. |
| No one said they would vote for the Palmer United party, and 1% said they would vote for the Jacqui Lambie network. | No one said they would vote for the Palmer United party, and 1% said they would vote for the Jacqui Lambie network. |
| Pauline Hanson’s One Nation registered 5% of votes, and the Nick Xenophon team registered 4%. | Pauline Hanson’s One Nation registered 5% of votes, and the Nick Xenophon team registered 4%. |
| “Pauline Hanson looks set to win in Queensland, Xenophon could pick up seats outside South Australia, Jacqui Lambie is likely to be returned and there are other wildcards like Lazarus and even the chance of a second Greens candidate winning in Queensland. | “Pauline Hanson looks set to win in Queensland, Xenophon could pick up seats outside South Australia, Jacqui Lambie is likely to be returned and there are other wildcards like Lazarus and even the chance of a second Greens candidate winning in Queensland. |
| “All up this could mean a Senate where a returned Coalition government couldn’t pass legislation without either Hanson’s vote or the Greens [if Labor opposed]. | “All up this could mean a Senate where a returned Coalition government couldn’t pass legislation without either Hanson’s vote or the Greens [if Labor opposed]. |
| There are 76 seats in the Senate, so the Coalition needs to win 39 for a majority. | There are 76 seats in the Senate, so the Coalition needs to win 39 for a majority. |
| The Australia Institute said the polling suggested the Coalition might win between 30 and 35 seats, Labor could win 25 to 28, and the Greens nine to 10. | The Australia Institute said the polling suggested the Coalition might win between 30 and 35 seats, Labor could win 25 to 28, and the Greens nine to 10. |
| If the Coalition won roughly 30 seats and Labor retained its current 25 seats, the Coalition would have to rely on the Greens or other independents whenever Labor opposed its legislation. | If the Coalition won roughly 30 seats and Labor retained its current 25 seats, the Coalition would have to rely on the Greens or other independents whenever Labor opposed its legislation. |
| There are just over three weeks until the election. | There are just over three weeks until the election. |