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EU referendum morning briefing: what we learned from Sturgeon v Johnson EU referendum morning briefing: what we learned from Sturgeon v Johnson
(2 months later)
The big pictureThe big picture
Last night’s ITV debate pitted Conservatives Boris Johnson and junior energy minister Andrea Leadsom, alongside Labour’s Gisela Stuart, for leave; against Scotland’s first minister Nicola Sturgeon, Tory energy secretary Amber Rudd and Labour frontbencher Angela Eagle for remain.Last night’s ITV debate pitted Conservatives Boris Johnson and junior energy minister Andrea Leadsom, alongside Labour’s Gisela Stuart, for leave; against Scotland’s first minister Nicola Sturgeon, Tory energy secretary Amber Rudd and Labour frontbencher Angela Eagle for remain.
Related: EU referendum live: 'very real prospect' of defeat for remain, says Burnham
The two-hour face-off raced through themes familiar in the campaign – immigration, the economy, sovereignty, the NHS, scaremongering – and one less well-rehearsed question on women and the EU (which became a broader discussion of workers’ rights).The two-hour face-off raced through themes familiar in the campaign – immigration, the economy, sovereignty, the NHS, scaremongering – and one less well-rehearsed question on women and the EU (which became a broader discussion of workers’ rights).
Here’s the round-up of the debate from our Westminster team, the verdicts from Guardian columnists, and John Crace’s sketch on how to win over undecided voters (spoiler: say nothing).Here’s the round-up of the debate from our Westminster team, the verdicts from Guardian columnists, and John Crace’s sketch on how to win over undecided voters (spoiler: say nothing).
It all took place as Andy Burnham warned that remain faced the “very real prospect” of defeat in the referendum. The Labour shadow home secretary told BBC’s Newsnight that the campaign had failed to reach out to traditional Labour voters and to tackle fears over immigration:It all took place as Andy Burnham warned that remain faced the “very real prospect” of defeat in the referendum. The Labour shadow home secretary told BBC’s Newsnight that the campaign had failed to reach out to traditional Labour voters and to tackle fears over immigration:
We have definitely been far too much Hampstead and not enough Hull in recent times and we need to change that. Here we are two weeks away from the very real prospect that Britain will vote for isolation.We have definitely been far too much Hampstead and not enough Hull in recent times and we need to change that. Here we are two weeks away from the very real prospect that Britain will vote for isolation.
What we learned in the debateWhat we learned in the debate
I fear that the only number that Boris is interested in is the one that says No 10.I fear that the only number that Boris is interested in is the one that says No 10.
Beware of the blond bombshell!Beware of the blond bombshell!
(That’s a moniker that has frequently been applied to Johnson himself, of course.)(That’s a moniker that has frequently been applied to Johnson himself, of course.)
Johnson: There’s a member of that panel who’s complained about the remain campaign and says that it’s ‘miserable, negative and fear-based, and fear-based campaigning of this kind starts to insult people’s intelligence’.Johnson: There’s a member of that panel who’s complained about the remain campaign and says that it’s ‘miserable, negative and fear-based, and fear-based campaigning of this kind starts to insult people’s intelligence’.
Now that was Nicola Sturgeon … And I have to say, I agree with Nicola.Now that was Nicola Sturgeon … And I have to say, I agree with Nicola.
This is not a one-way street. How would we feel if people in other countries were talking about us in the way that we’re talking about people … it’s disgraceful.This is not a one-way street. How would we feel if people in other countries were talking about us in the way that we’re talking about people … it’s disgraceful.
In the modern world, independent countries must work together. And that’s what the EU is all about: independent countries choosing to cooperate for the benefit of all.In the modern world, independent countries must work together. And that’s what the EU is all about: independent countries choosing to cooperate for the benefit of all.
What we didn’tWhat we didn’t
Sturgeon: It is a scandal that it is still emblazoned across the campaign bus because it’s an absolute whopper.Sturgeon: It is a scandal that it is still emblazoned across the campaign bus because it’s an absolute whopper.
Eagle: Get that lie off your bus.Eagle: Get that lie off your bus.
Political toing-and-froing aside, here are some facts on that figure. First, the Guardian’s own reality check. The verdict? “At best misleading, and at worst wrong.”Political toing-and-froing aside, here are some facts on that figure. First, the Guardian’s own reality check. The verdict? “At best misleading, and at worst wrong.”
And here’s what the UK Statistics Authority said a couple of weeks ago: “Misleading and undermines trust in official statistics.”And here’s what the UK Statistics Authority said a couple of weeks ago: “Misleading and undermines trust in official statistics.”
Official definitive @UKStatsAuth statement on the UK's EU membership fee and rebate https://t.co/z9J4Dn4wdd #bbcqt pic.twitter.com/2prtPqZ97JOfficial definitive @UKStatsAuth statement on the UK's EU membership fee and rebate https://t.co/z9J4Dn4wdd #bbcqt pic.twitter.com/2prtPqZ97J
The key exchangeThe key exchange
Johnson: If we took back control of our money, we’d have £10bn more if we left the EU, we’d have £10bn more to spend every year on our priorities …Johnson: If we took back control of our money, we’d have £10bn more if we left the EU, we’d have £10bn more to spend every year on our priorities …
Eagle: Boris, that’s a lie. That is a lie and you know it.Eagle: Boris, that’s a lie. That is a lie and you know it.
Clarification of the nightClarification of the night
Courtesy of Eagle, who rowed back from her comment that “we’re not in the European Union” (and Johnson’s glee) to the more accurate “we’re not in Schengen … we’re not in the eurozone”.Courtesy of Eagle, who rowed back from her comment that “we’re not in the European Union” (and Johnson’s glee) to the more accurate “we’re not in Schengen … we’re not in the eurozone”.
Zinger of the nightZinger of the night
Probably this (OK, rather rehearsed) line from Amber Rudd on Johnson:Probably this (OK, rather rehearsed) line from Amber Rudd on Johnson:
He is the life and soul of the party but he is not the man you want driving you home at the end of evening.He is the life and soul of the party but he is not the man you want driving you home at the end of evening.
But it’s run close by Johnson’s jibe that Sturgeon is “keener to be ruled by Brussels than Westminster”.But it’s run close by Johnson’s jibe that Sturgeon is “keener to be ruled by Brussels than Westminster”.
The Remain campaign verdictThe Remain campaign verdict
Stronger In might be an “extraordinary alliance” across party lines, but Tory energy secretary Amber Rudd was the standout performer, according to Tory prime minister David Cameron:Stronger In might be an “extraordinary alliance” across party lines, but Tory energy secretary Amber Rudd was the standout performer, according to Tory prime minister David Cameron:
.@AmberRudd_MP was a star in the #ITVEURef debate. She was passionate and clear about why we are #StrongerIn the EU, "leading not leaving.".@AmberRudd_MP was a star in the #ITVEURef debate. She was passionate and clear about why we are #StrongerIn the EU, "leading not leaving."
Will Straw, director of Britain Stronger in Europe, said it was:Will Straw, director of Britain Stronger in Europe, said it was:
Rich of Boris to talk about hope when his campaign has focused on fears on Turkey, Hitler and immigration.Rich of Boris to talk about hope when his campaign has focused on fears on Turkey, Hitler and immigration.
The Leave campaign verdictThe Leave campaign verdict
Iain Duncan Smith said things had got a bit personal:Iain Duncan Smith said things had got a bit personal:
The remain side came on with the usual old scare stories about Britain not being good enough but what really added to that, was lacing its way through that, was just personal abuse. One after another, you could see their heads dip down to read the line: ‘Now time to abuse Boris Johnson’.The remain side came on with the usual old scare stories about Britain not being good enough but what really added to that, was lacing its way through that, was just personal abuse. One after another, you could see their heads dip down to read the line: ‘Now time to abuse Boris Johnson’.
Ukip’s Suzanne Evans thought Labour’s most high-profile Out spokeswoman was a hit:Ukip’s Suzanne Evans thought Labour’s most high-profile Out spokeswoman was a hit:
Positivity, passion & patriotism from @GiselaStuart. Simply wonderful. #ITVEURefPositivity, passion & patriotism from @GiselaStuart. Simply wonderful. #ITVEURef
You should also knowYou should also know
Poll positionPoll position
Bolstering news for leave campaigners from an Ipsos Mori poll yesterday commissioned by the UK in a Changing Europe, a group of non-partisan academics. It found 63% believed leaving the EU would reduce immigration and just 25% thought it would reduce their own living standards – and 13% said they reckoned they would be better off.Bolstering news for leave campaigners from an Ipsos Mori poll yesterday commissioned by the UK in a Changing Europe, a group of non-partisan academics. It found 63% believed leaving the EU would reduce immigration and just 25% thought it would reduce their own living standards – and 13% said they reckoned they would be better off.
Less scientifically robust, but another debate last night – which saw Michael Howard, Jenny Jones and Daniel Hannan argue the leave case against Michael Heseltine, Alex Salmond and Vicky Pryce – resulted in an Oxford Union vote in favour of staying in, by 74% to 26%.Less scientifically robust, but another debate last night – which saw Michael Howard, Jenny Jones and Daniel Hannan argue the leave case against Michael Heseltine, Alex Salmond and Vicky Pryce – resulted in an Oxford Union vote in favour of staying in, by 74% to 26%.
DiaryDiary
Plenty going on today, with many of last night’s panellists doing the rounds again.Plenty going on today, with many of last night’s panellists doing the rounds again.
Read theseRead these
ITV political editor Robert Peston, in his snap verdict on the debate, said it was “extraordinary” to see Tory MPs attacking each other:ITV political editor Robert Peston, in his snap verdict on the debate, said it was “extraordinary” to see Tory MPs attacking each other:
The Remain camp were aware that some of the research shows that voters don’t think that they are putting forward their case with enough enthusiasm and we saw a lot of gusto tonight and actually strikingly, also lots of personal attacks – particularly on Boris Johnson.The Remain camp were aware that some of the research shows that voters don’t think that they are putting forward their case with enough enthusiasm and we saw a lot of gusto tonight and actually strikingly, also lots of personal attacks – particularly on Boris Johnson.
Accusations that he’s mainly motivated not by a desire to get us out of the EU but more by a desire to get into Number 10 – Amber Rudd, his close colleague, making that charge.Accusations that he’s mainly motivated not by a desire to get us out of the EU but more by a desire to get into Number 10 – Amber Rudd, his close colleague, making that charge.
In the New Statesman, Helen Walmsley-Johnson wants to know how her pension would be affected in the event of Brexit:In the New Statesman, Helen Walmsley-Johnson wants to know how her pension would be affected in the event of Brexit:
We, the over-50s, are statistically not only most likely to vote in the forthcoming EU referendum but are also most likely to vote to leave. Apparently this is down to two things: a misty-eyed nostalgia for Britain before straight bananas and concern over net migration …We, the over-50s, are statistically not only most likely to vote in the forthcoming EU referendum but are also most likely to vote to leave. Apparently this is down to two things: a misty-eyed nostalgia for Britain before straight bananas and concern over net migration …
The Treasury’s analysis shows that if we leave the European Union millions of current and future pensioners will be worse off. Predictably Vote Leave, in the person of former pensions secretary Iain Duncan Smith, said this is ‘utterly outrageous’ and ‘cynical’.The Treasury’s analysis shows that if we leave the European Union millions of current and future pensioners will be worse off. Predictably Vote Leave, in the person of former pensions secretary Iain Duncan Smith, said this is ‘utterly outrageous’ and ‘cynical’.
I don’t know about you but given his record I find IDS less than credible on the subject of pensions or anything else really, which makes him an odd spokesperson to choose. But that aside, when you unpick the Treasury’s analysis, it’s broadly this: that leaving the EU would cause inflation to rise and that rise would erode the value of state pension increases to the tune of £137 per year, per state pensioner.I don’t know about you but given his record I find IDS less than credible on the subject of pensions or anything else really, which makes him an odd spokesperson to choose. But that aside, when you unpick the Treasury’s analysis, it’s broadly this: that leaving the EU would cause inflation to rise and that rise would erode the value of state pension increases to the tune of £137 per year, per state pensioner.
And in the Guardian, Martin Kettle wonders what happened to Michael Gove:And in the Guardian, Martin Kettle wonders what happened to Michael Gove:
Gove has come a long way from that elegant but restrained initial statement of rejection of government policy at the start of the campaign.Gove has come a long way from that elegant but restrained initial statement of rejection of government policy at the start of the campaign.
As Gove himself might put it, it is as though he, in US Republican terms a Rand Paul-style doctrinal conservative, has morphed in the space of a few weeks into a Donald Trump-style scaremonger. The campaign on which Gove is now embarked is at odds with much of what he once stood for. The campaign is narrow, nasty, dishonest and driven by polling, while apparently spurning any of the old Govian high-minded argument. It is almost unrecognisable as the work of a man whose occasional willingness to give questioners the run of his mind meant that an hour in his company was always one of the more fascinating experiences in politics.As Gove himself might put it, it is as though he, in US Republican terms a Rand Paul-style doctrinal conservative, has morphed in the space of a few weeks into a Donald Trump-style scaremonger. The campaign on which Gove is now embarked is at odds with much of what he once stood for. The campaign is narrow, nasty, dishonest and driven by polling, while apparently spurning any of the old Govian high-minded argument. It is almost unrecognisable as the work of a man whose occasional willingness to give questioners the run of his mind meant that an hour in his company was always one of the more fascinating experiences in politics.
Baffling claim of the dayBaffling claim of the day
The Sun claims a – I must stress, non-official – pro-EU group planned to create a spoof pornographic film featuring a half-naked Boris Johnson:The Sun claims a – I must stress, non-official – pro-EU group planned to create a spoof pornographic film featuring a half-naked Boris Johnson:
We Are Europe hoped it would go viral before the EU referendum on June 23 and create a ‘spike of interest’ among Britain’s youth. They wanted randy Brits to look for it on explicit adult websites …We Are Europe hoped it would go viral before the EU referendum on June 23 and create a ‘spike of interest’ among Britain’s youth. They wanted randy Brits to look for it on explicit adult websites …
One scene involved a man having sex with a woman and looking at a photo of David Cameron and Angela Merkel. He asks his partner ‘Am I In?’ and she responds ‘YES BABY!’One scene involved a man having sex with a woman and looking at a photo of David Cameron and Angela Merkel. He asks his partner ‘Am I In?’ and she responds ‘YES BABY!’
With apologies to readers eating breakfast.With apologies to readers eating breakfast.
Celebrity endorsement of the dayCelebrity endorsement of the day
Michael Moore, in the UK to promote his new film, Where to Invade Next, wondered aloud:Michael Moore, in the UK to promote his new film, Where to Invade Next, wondered aloud:
Why would you do this? … Why would you want to leave? It costs too much money? Immigrants? Really? That’s not who you are, come on.Why would you do this? … Why would you want to leave? It costs too much money? Immigrants? Really? That’s not who you are, come on.
The day in a tweetThe day in a tweet
From Jakub Krupa, UK correspondent for the Polish Press Agency, a neat summing-up:From Jakub Krupa, UK correspondent for the Polish Press Agency, a neat summing-up:
Incumbent minister facing deputy in a TV debate, anti-immigration MP of migrant background & a Scottish nationalist arguing for the UK. +Incumbent minister facing deputy in a TV debate, anti-immigration MP of migrant background & a Scottish nationalist arguing for the UK. +
If today were a Madonna tour ...If today were a Madonna tour ...
It would be Blond Ambition. But without the pointy bras.It would be Blond Ambition. But without the pointy bras.
And another thingAnd another thing
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