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| Why a Debate Over Guns Probably Favors Donald Trump Politically | |
| (about 2 hours later) | |
| The gun-control debate could hit a sweet spot for Donald Trump. His position has appeal to a group that he needs to gain the White House — less educated white Democrats — without doing much to alienate traditionally Republican voters. | The gun-control debate could hit a sweet spot for Donald Trump. His position has appeal to a group that he needs to gain the White House — less educated white Democrats — without doing much to alienate traditionally Republican voters. |
| Mr. Trump made the issue a big part of his response to the mass shooting at an Orlando nightclub, saying that his probable opponent, Hillary Clinton, “wants to take away Americans’ guns” and promising to meet with the National Rifle Association “to discuss how to ensure Americans have the means to protect themselves in this age of terror.” | Mr. Trump made the issue a big part of his response to the mass shooting at an Orlando nightclub, saying that his probable opponent, Hillary Clinton, “wants to take away Americans’ guns” and promising to meet with the National Rifle Association “to discuss how to ensure Americans have the means to protect themselves in this age of terror.” |
| According to an Upshot analysis of Pew Research data, nearly half of white working-class Democrats think it’s more important to protect gun rights than to control gun ownership. That’s a larger percentage of Democratic voters than agree with Mr. Trump on many of the other issues that he stresses on the campaign trail. | According to an Upshot analysis of Pew Research data, nearly half of white working-class Democrats think it’s more important to protect gun rights than to control gun ownership. That’s a larger percentage of Democratic voters than agree with Mr. Trump on many of the other issues that he stresses on the campaign trail. |
| At the same time, Mr. Trump’s position has considerable support from Republican-leaning voters. About three-quarters of Republican-leaning voters side with gun rights over gun control, according to the Pew data. | At the same time, Mr. Trump’s position has considerable support from Republican-leaning voters. About three-quarters of Republican-leaning voters side with gun rights over gun control, according to the Pew data. |
| That’s even better for Mr. Trump than a lot of his other populist wedge issues, like trade and immigration. It’s about as good as any issue for Republicans — even general conservative attitudes such as whether the government is wasteful. | That’s even better for Mr. Trump than a lot of his other populist wedge issues, like trade and immigration. It’s about as good as any issue for Republicans — even general conservative attitudes such as whether the government is wasteful. |
| Mr. Trump has a narrow path to the presidency: run up the score among white working-class voters so that he can overwhelm losses among well-educated and nonwhite voters. So far, polls show, he isn’t pulling it off. His gains among working-class white voters have come at an equal or greater cost among other voters. | Mr. Trump has a narrow path to the presidency: run up the score among white working-class voters so that he can overwhelm losses among well-educated and nonwhite voters. So far, polls show, he isn’t pulling it off. His gains among working-class white voters have come at an equal or greater cost among other voters. |
| This makes gun control a potentially useful issue for Mr. Trump. It’s something he can stress to white working-class Democrats without suffering too much attrition among traditional Republican voters. | This makes gun control a potentially useful issue for Mr. Trump. It’s something he can stress to white working-class Democrats without suffering too much attrition among traditional Republican voters. |
| Mr. Trump’s proposal to bar Muslim immigration might be riskier. Back in 2014, only a quarter of white working-class Democrats agreed that Islam was likelier to encourage violence, and only slightly more than half of Republican-leaners agreed. More recent surveys about Mr. Trump’s proposal to bar Muslims from entering the United States show a split over whether a majority of Americans support his position. | Mr. Trump’s proposal to bar Muslim immigration might be riskier. Back in 2014, only a quarter of white working-class Democrats agreed that Islam was likelier to encourage violence, and only slightly more than half of Republican-leaners agreed. More recent surveys about Mr. Trump’s proposal to bar Muslims from entering the United States show a split over whether a majority of Americans support his position. |
| Whether the gun debate actually has the power to sway traditionally Democratic voters is another question. The issue has been debated for decades, and yet these white working-class Democrats have continued to stick with the party that takes a more restrictive view of gun rights. And the specific proposals advanced by President Obama and Mrs. Clinton might be more appealing to these voters than a debate over gun control in the abstract. | Whether the gun debate actually has the power to sway traditionally Democratic voters is another question. The issue has been debated for decades, and yet these white working-class Democrats have continued to stick with the party that takes a more restrictive view of gun rights. And the specific proposals advanced by President Obama and Mrs. Clinton might be more appealing to these voters than a debate over gun control in the abstract. |
| But no single issue needs to do all of the work for Mr. Trump, and gun rights probably do nudge his target voters in his direction. | But no single issue needs to do all of the work for Mr. Trump, and gun rights probably do nudge his target voters in his direction. |