The Guardian view on Turkey and Europe: separating facts from fiction
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Version 0 of 1. It is now more than 50 years since Turkey was promised membership of the European club, and despite some cynical scaremongering in the UK during the EU referendum debate – with fears stoked that a country of 79 million might suddenly gain freedom of movement for its citizens across Europe – there is simply no sign that the old accession promise of 1963 will be upheld. When looking at relations between Turkey and Europe, it is important to take the long view – just as it is important to look at facts, and not let irrational passions drown out reason. Simply put: no one in Europe is ready to let Turkey in – now, or in the foreseeable future. Claiming otherwise is either ignorant, or deliberately misleading. Long before Turkey’s president, Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, put his country on an authoritarian path, opposition to the nation’s membership of the EU was widely shared on the European continent. Take France: a decade ago its then president, Jacques Chirac, radically shifted away from his earlier pronouncements in favour of bringing Turkey closer to Europe, after fears about the populous Muslim country metaphorically turning up on France’s doorstep were actively instrumentalised in French domestic politics. And Germany: Angela Merkel has never been enthusiastic about Turkey’s hopes of EU integration, and nor has her party, the Christian Democrats. When she almost singlehandedly negotiated a deal with Turkey in March to stem refugee flows to Europe, the prospect of EU membership was much more of a symbolic slogan than a plausible reality. There’s a difference between the constructive ambiguity that diplomacy often tries to rely on, and genuine political will. Long gone are the heady days of the 1990s when Turkey seemed to be on track towards political liberalisation, economic strength and EU prospects. It is true that Mr Erdoğan’s Islamist-conservative party pushed for a rapprochement when it came to power in 2002, which allowed EU accession talks to begin formally in 2005. But since then, the process has all but stalled. Turkey’s dismal human rights record, and its attitude to the long-running dispute with Cyprus, remain obvious obstacles. And whatever geopolitical arguments may have existed in the past about the advantages of bringing Turkey into the EU, the chaos in the Middle East has largely swept them away. Then, there is the question of fast-tracking visa-free travel for Turkish citizens to Europe. Contrary to the claims of some voices in Britain, this was always more of an illusion than a serious prospect. For that part of March’s deal to materialise, Turkey needed to meet 72 criteria by June, including the scrapping of anti-terrorism legislation which the Erdoğan regime has used to crush political dissent. On Wednesday the EU commission declared Turkey had missed the deadline. Claims that Europe is about to be overrun by “millions” of Turks are outright lies. In any case, since Britain is not part of the Schengen passport-free area, it would not be directly affected by Turkish visa-free travel in the first place. Turkey’s accession into the EU may be an old promise, but circumstances have changed in ways that make its fulfilment as good as impossible for the foreseeable future. In any case, any EU member state could choose to veto it. Those are the facts: and in this case, facts are the best antidote to fear. |