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EU referendum live: Bank of England says pound could 'fall sharply' on Brexit EU referendum live: Bank of England says pound could 'fall sharply' on Brexit
(35 minutes later)
12.57pm BST
12:57
Severin Carrell
Nicola Sturgeon has again warned she could call a second Scottish independence referendum if the UK votes to leave the EU next week against the wishes of a majority of Scottish voters.
Speaking during first minister’s questions, she told Scottish Labour leader Kezia Dugdale that if Brexit wins in a week’s time “against the democratically expressed will [of the Scottish people] that all options to protect our relationship with Europe and the EU will require to be explored.”
Dugdale asked Sturgeon three questions on the EU referendum, in clear breach of a ruling by Holyrood officials in May that as it was public body, the Scottish parliament was barred by purdah rules from debating the EU after purdah came into force on 27 May.
Dugdale had asked Sturgeon whether the Scottish government had any contingency plans under way to cope with the economic damage that George Osborne and leading economists predict would follow Brexit. The first minister sidestepped that question.
And her remarks were conditional and cautious: Alex Salmond her predecessor has said explicitly he wants a second referendum within two years of a Brexit vote. Sturgeon is widely thought to oppose that since a host of opinion polls show independence after Brexit does not yet have a commanding majority.
12.54pm BST
12:54
My colleague Anushka Asthana has made a film about the impact of immigration on the EU referendum. It last eight minutes and you can watch it here.
12.48pm BST
12:48
Jeremy Clarkson meets Cameron and backs Remain
With one week to go, and support for Leave surging, Remain are getting desperate. David Cameron has already wheeled out President Obama, the IMF, Angela Merkel, every living former prime minister, the Bank of England, the OECD, Jeremy Corbyn and God know who else - without much effect.
So, understandably, it seems they’ve decided to deploy the one secret weapon they’ve been holding back - Jeremy Clarkson.
Rather unexpectedly, Clarkson is a Remainer.
Here is the Press Association story about the photocall.
Jeremy Clarkson and James May have said Britain remaining in the EU is one of only three things they agree on.
The former Top Gear presenters were speaking as they met prime minister David Cameron in the west London office of their TV production company.
Clarkson said to the PM: “It’s an extraordinary thing that James and I only agree on three things, which is sandwich spread is delicious, the old Subaru Legacy Outback is a good car and Britain staying in.”
During an informal talk with Cameron over cappuccinos in Stronger In-branded mugs and croissants, Clarkson added: “I have not, with the greatest of respect, heard one politician say anything that’s caused me to change my mind.
“There’s huge numbers that don’t understand and get confused. Really, it’s my gut.”
Clarkson has previously declared being in favour of Remain, saying it would be “better to stay in and try to make the damn thing work properly”.
12.36pm BST
12:36
Bank of England says Brexit uncertainty is already slowing business activity
The minutes from the Bank of England’s monetary policy committee yesterday are here (pdf).
They show that the Bank thinks uncertainty generated by the referendum has already had a dampening effect on the economy in some areas. The minutes say:
Monetary policy summary and minutes of the Monetary Policy Committee meeting ending on 15 June 2016
Measures of uncertainty had increased further over the past month, with the UK a clear outlier internationally. And there had been growing evidence that uncertainty about the outcome of the referendum was leading to delays to major economic decisions that were costly or difficult to reverse. In the corporate sector, this included a sharp decline in the value of commercial real estate transactions and M&A, and reports of delayed business investment. Evidence from the Bank’s Agents had suggested increased delays in corporate decision making, which was corroborated by a Deloitte survey of chief financial officers. Survey information from Markit/CIPS and the BCC showed that for a material proportion of responding firms the referendum was having a detrimental effect on business activity, sometimes significantly so. Regarding households, both car purchases and residential housing activity had declined, although it was difficult to isolate the extent to which these effects related to the referendum or a more general underlying slowing.
12.15pm BST12.15pm BST
12:1512:15
Bank of England says pound could fall, 'perhaps sharply', if UK votes to leave EUBank of England says pound could fall, 'perhaps sharply', if UK votes to leave EU
The Bank of England has issued a fresh warning about the impact of Brexit.The Bank of England has issued a fresh warning about the impact of Brexit.
In a statement confirming the latest decision taken by the monetary policy committee to keep interest rates will remain unchanged, it says.In a statement confirming the latest decision taken by the monetary policy committee to keep interest rates will remain unchanged, it says.
Here is the key quote.Here is the key quote.
As the Committee set out last month, the most significant risks to the MPC’s forecast concern the referendum. A vote to leave the EU could materially alter the outlook for output and inflation, and therefore the appropriate setting of monetary policy. Households could defer consumption and firms delay investment, lowering labour demand and causing unemployment to rise. Through financial market and confidence channels, there are also risks of adverse spill-overs to the global economy. At the same time, supply growth is likely to be lower over the forecast period, reflecting slower capital accumulation and the need to reallocate resources. Sterling is also likely to depreciate further, perhaps sharply. This combination of influences on demand, supply and the exchange rate could lead to a materially lower path for growth and a notably higher path for inflation than in the central projections set out in the May Inflation Report. In such circumstances, the MPC would face a trade-off between stabilising inflation on the one hand and output and employment on the other. The implications for the direction of monetary policy will depend on the relative magnitudes of the demand, supply and exchange rate effects. The MPC will take whatever action is needed, following the outcome of the referendum, to ensure that inflation expectations remain well anchored and inflation returns to the target over the appropriate horizon.As the Committee set out last month, the most significant risks to the MPC’s forecast concern the referendum. A vote to leave the EU could materially alter the outlook for output and inflation, and therefore the appropriate setting of monetary policy. Households could defer consumption and firms delay investment, lowering labour demand and causing unemployment to rise. Through financial market and confidence channels, there are also risks of adverse spill-overs to the global economy. At the same time, supply growth is likely to be lower over the forecast period, reflecting slower capital accumulation and the need to reallocate resources. Sterling is also likely to depreciate further, perhaps sharply. This combination of influences on demand, supply and the exchange rate could lead to a materially lower path for growth and a notably higher path for inflation than in the central projections set out in the May Inflation Report. In such circumstances, the MPC would face a trade-off between stabilising inflation on the one hand and output and employment on the other. The implications for the direction of monetary policy will depend on the relative magnitudes of the demand, supply and exchange rate effects. The MPC will take whatever action is needed, following the outcome of the referendum, to ensure that inflation expectations remain well anchored and inflation returns to the target over the appropriate horizon.
12.01pm BST12.01pm BST
12:0112:01
Sturgeon condemns new Ukip poster as "disgusting'Sturgeon condemns new Ukip poster as "disgusting'
Ukip has unveiled a new EU referendum poster.Ukip has unveiled a new EU referendum poster.
It is intended to make a point about immigration, but it uses a picture of refugees.It is intended to make a point about immigration, but it uses a picture of refugees.
Ukip's new poster features a picture of refugees in Slovenia in 2015 pic.twitter.com/0ZLCFr8cLwUkip's new poster features a picture of refugees in Slovenia in 2015 pic.twitter.com/0ZLCFr8cLw
Nicola Sturgeon, the Scottish first minister and SNP leader, has condemned the poster as “disgusting”.Nicola Sturgeon, the Scottish first minister and SNP leader, has condemned the poster as “disgusting”.
This is disgusting. https://t.co/eHHI6KrWvpThis is disgusting. https://t.co/eHHI6KrWvp
11.55am BST11.55am BST
11:5511:55
Juncker says Brexit would start period of 'major uncertainty' for UK, EU and the worldJuncker says Brexit would start period of 'major uncertainty' for UK, EU and the world
Jean-Claude Juncker, the president of the European commission, has been speaking to journalists on a visit to Russia today. He says Brexit would usher in a period of “major uncertainty” for Britain, the EU and the world.Jean-Claude Juncker, the president of the European commission, has been speaking to journalists on a visit to Russia today. He says Brexit would usher in a period of “major uncertainty” for Britain, the EU and the world.
'I think our British friends would be best advised not to do it,’ @JunckerEU pic.twitter.com/GhMzlBKxSw'I think our British friends would be best advised not to do it,’ @JunckerEU pic.twitter.com/GhMzlBKxSw
11.39am BST11.39am BST
11:3911:39
The Corbyn event is now over. I will post a summary soon.The Corbyn event is now over. I will post a summary soon.
11.34am BST11.34am BST
11:3411:34
Corbyn's Q&ACorbyn's Q&A
Q: John McDonnell said today Labour should look again at the free movement of labour in the EU. Do you agree?Q: John McDonnell said today Labour should look again at the free movement of labour in the EU. Do you agree?
Corbyn says the EU depends on free movement of labour. He has set out plans for EU minimum standards. He thinks that is the way foward.Corbyn says the EU depends on free movement of labour. He has set out plans for EU minimum standards. He thinks that is the way foward.
Q: [From the Telegraph’s Michael Deacon] Why are so many Labour supporters planning to vote Leave?Q: [From the Telegraph’s Michael Deacon] Why are so many Labour supporters planning to vote Leave?
Corbyn says people do not appreciate all that the EU has done. He also says there has been a “steady stream of anti-European sentiment” in the papers. Sarcastically, he says he does not include the Telegraph, which he says only has Europe’s best interests at heart. He says a fear strategy will not work. A positive strategy is needed. He says he has tried to set out one today.Corbyn says people do not appreciate all that the EU has done. He also says there has been a “steady stream of anti-European sentiment” in the papers. Sarcastically, he says he does not include the Telegraph, which he says only has Europe’s best interests at heart. He says a fear strategy will not work. A positive strategy is needed. He says he has tried to set out one today.
UpdatedUpdated
at 11.36am BSTat 11.36am BST
11.30am BST11.30am BST
11:3011:30
Corbyn is now wrapping up.Corbyn is now wrapping up.
I have tried to set out today some of Labour vision for Remain and Reform in the European Union.I have tried to set out today some of Labour vision for Remain and Reform in the European Union.
More importantly I hope I’ve been able to restore a bit of faith in what politics can do. If you have a decent government committed to making our country and our world a better place.More importantly I hope I’ve been able to restore a bit of faith in what politics can do. If you have a decent government committed to making our country and our world a better place.
I encourage you all to vote Remain on 23 June and then to support our campaign for the changes we want to see here in Britain and across Europe.I encourage you all to vote Remain on 23 June and then to support our campaign for the changes we want to see here in Britain and across Europe.
Things can and, with your help, they will change.Things can and, with your help, they will change.
11.29am BST11.29am BST
11:2911:29
Corbyn says Labour supports an EU-wide financial transaction taxCorbyn says Labour supports an EU-wide financial transaction tax
Corbyn says Labour should be supporting moves towards a financial transaction tax (aka, the Tobin tax, or Robin Hood tax).Corbyn says Labour should be supporting moves towards a financial transaction tax (aka, the Tobin tax, or Robin Hood tax).
There are currently 10 countries in Europe working together to secure a financial transactions tax across the European Union. This is a small tax on specific financial transactions to help prevent the sort of banking crash we saw a few years back, that led to the deepest economic crisis since the 1930s.There are currently 10 countries in Europe working together to secure a financial transactions tax across the European Union. This is a small tax on specific financial transactions to help prevent the sort of banking crash we saw a few years back, that led to the deepest economic crisis since the 1930s.
What was the British Government’s response to this proposal? To rush to Europe to oppose it, threatening legal action.What was the British Government’s response to this proposal? To rush to Europe to oppose it, threatening legal action.
Labour wants to help drive this reform, to build support for an EU-wide tax as a step towards a global tax. We must reform our banking sector and discourage the dangerous practices that undermined the banks across Europe and globally.Labour wants to help drive this reform, to build support for an EU-wide tax as a step towards a global tax. We must reform our banking sector and discourage the dangerous practices that undermined the banks across Europe and globally.
The process is currently in a fragile state, despite the support of France and Germany, but imagine the impetus Britain’s support could give to the campaign, both in Europe and among major economies around the world.The process is currently in a fragile state, despite the support of France and Germany, but imagine the impetus Britain’s support could give to the campaign, both in Europe and among major economies around the world.
11.26am BST11.26am BST
11:2611:26
This is from the BBC’s Laura Kuenssberg.This is from the BBC’s Laura Kuenssberg.
Corbyn talking about methane capture........ Not quite sure audience is quite staying with him after a strong startCorbyn talking about methane capture........ Not quite sure audience is quite staying with him after a strong start
11.25am BST11.25am BST
11:2511:25
Corbyn calls for an EU-wide minimum wage and EU minimum standards on rights at workCorbyn calls for an EU-wide minimum wage and EU minimum standards on rights at work
Corbyn calls for new European standards on rights at work and minimum pay.Corbyn calls for new European standards on rights at work and minimum pay.
I mentioned the scandal of zero hours contracts earlier too. As well as outlawing these exploitative contracts in Britain, we should go further and work with our allies to establish a European minimum standard of rights at work to stop undercutting and give people the job security they need.I mentioned the scandal of zero hours contracts earlier too. As well as outlawing these exploitative contracts in Britain, we should go further and work with our allies to establish a European minimum standard of rights at work to stop undercutting and give people the job security they need.
And now that Germany has introduced a minimum wage there is an opportunity to move towards a European-wide minimum wage – linked to average pay and the cost of living in each country to halt the race to the bottom in pay and conditions, and increase wages across Europe.And now that Germany has introduced a minimum wage there is an opportunity to move towards a European-wide minimum wage – linked to average pay and the cost of living in each country to halt the race to the bottom in pay and conditions, and increase wages across Europe.
11.22am BST11.22am BST
11:2211:22
Corbyn is now talking about the posting of workers directive, which he has raised at least twice at PMQs.Corbyn is now talking about the posting of workers directive, which he has raised at least twice at PMQs.
There is a little known EU directive, for example, called the Posting of Workers Directive. It allows companies that win contracts in another part of Europe to take workers to other countries. They can post their workers abroad temporarily, rather than go through new recruitment processes.There is a little known EU directive, for example, called the Posting of Workers Directive. It allows companies that win contracts in another part of Europe to take workers to other countries. They can post their workers abroad temporarily, rather than go through new recruitment processes.
But legal judgements have opened up loopholes meaning that these companies are able to undercut the going rate in one country by paying the going rate in another.But legal judgements have opened up loopholes meaning that these companies are able to undercut the going rate in one country by paying the going rate in another.
In extreme cases it has meant workers not being paid the minimum wage of the country they’re working in because it is above the rate of their home nation.In extreme cases it has meant workers not being paid the minimum wage of the country they’re working in because it is above the rate of their home nation.
This loophole can and must be closed and there is a proposal on the table to do so. Labour would work to secure agreement from other countries to back it.This loophole can and must be closed and there is a proposal on the table to do so. Labour would work to secure agreement from other countries to back it.
11.21am BST11.21am BST
11:2111:21
Corbyn says the UK should use its presidency of the EU next year to push for changes.Corbyn says the UK should use its presidency of the EU next year to push for changes.
There are proposals now in Europe for country-by-country tax reporting, which means that companies pay their taxes in the countries where they make their profits.There are proposals now in Europe for country-by-country tax reporting, which means that companies pay their taxes in the countries where they make their profits.
Labour members of the European parliament have backed this plan every time, while Conservatives ones oppose it, time and time again.Labour members of the European parliament have backed this plan every time, while Conservatives ones oppose it, time and time again.