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| As the vote looms, the reptilian core of the Tory brain is asserting itself | As the vote looms, the reptilian core of the Tory brain is asserting itself |
| (about 9 hours later) | |
| Well,” the senior Tory said to me, “I’m off now to test the waters, and to see how much support for me there’d be in a leadership contest.” | Well,” the senior Tory said to me, “I’m off now to test the waters, and to see how much support for me there’d be in a leadership contest.” |
| This remark, I hasten to add, predated the killing of Jo Cox: the prominent Conservative surveying the field as a potential successor to David Cameron would never have declared their brash ambition in the wake of such a horror. I mention what was said only because such sentiments – quite rightly reined in after the Birstall tragedy – are already flaring back into life. Even as the tributes to a remarkable MP continue, the reptilian core of the Tory brain is asserting itself in preparation for this week’s vote – only the third nationwide referendum in British history, and the most important. | This remark, I hasten to add, predated the killing of Jo Cox: the prominent Conservative surveying the field as a potential successor to David Cameron would never have declared their brash ambition in the wake of such a horror. I mention what was said only because such sentiments – quite rightly reined in after the Birstall tragedy – are already flaring back into life. Even as the tributes to a remarkable MP continue, the reptilian core of the Tory brain is asserting itself in preparation for this week’s vote – only the third nationwide referendum in British history, and the most important. |
| Liam Fox was quite right to tell the Sunday Times that: “There’s an earthquake coming on Thursday, and none of us knows which bits of the edifice may come down.” Win or lose, Cameron will confront a party that is disaggregated to the point of collapse but – thanks to the Fixed-Term Parliaments Act 2011, passed by his own coalition – must find a way of governing for almost four more years. | Liam Fox was quite right to tell the Sunday Times that: “There’s an earthquake coming on Thursday, and none of us knows which bits of the edifice may come down.” Win or lose, Cameron will confront a party that is disaggregated to the point of collapse but – thanks to the Fixed-Term Parliaments Act 2011, passed by his own coalition – must find a way of governing for almost four more years. |
| Yesterday’s polls suggested that remain is closing the gap with leave – a trend that the psephologists attribute less to horror at Cox’s death (the man charged with her murder gave his name in court as “Death to traitors, freedom for Britain”) than to growing caution among the hitherto undecided over the potential economic consequences of Brexit. The pollsters also know that their speculations are of diminishing importance. Reality is about to bite – hard. | Yesterday’s polls suggested that remain is closing the gap with leave – a trend that the psephologists attribute less to horror at Cox’s death (the man charged with her murder gave his name in court as “Death to traitors, freedom for Britain”) than to growing caution among the hitherto undecided over the potential economic consequences of Brexit. The pollsters also know that their speculations are of diminishing importance. Reality is about to bite – hard. |
| Related: Whether it’s Brexit or remain, David Cameron is not going anywhere | Matthew d’Ancona | Related: Whether it’s Brexit or remain, David Cameron is not going anywhere | Matthew d’Ancona |
| If Cameron does indeed prevail, there will be a reshuffle that more closely resembles an amnesty than a purge. Should the PM choose that strategy, rather than a tougher response to the liberties taken by some of his cabinet colleagues, he should at least recognise those on the Brexit side who have behaved with quiet honour: Chris Grayling, the leader of the house, and Theresa Villiers, the Northern Ireland secretary, spring to mind. | If Cameron does indeed prevail, there will be a reshuffle that more closely resembles an amnesty than a purge. Should the PM choose that strategy, rather than a tougher response to the liberties taken by some of his cabinet colleagues, he should at least recognise those on the Brexit side who have behaved with quiet honour: Chris Grayling, the leader of the house, and Theresa Villiers, the Northern Ireland secretary, spring to mind. |
| Equally, Cameron should not listen to those who want George Osborne to be the fall guy. As one very well-placed source observes: “The only thing everyone seems to agree on in this debate is that the British economy is strong.” Well, perhaps not everyone – Jeremy Corbyn, for a start, would demur. But the general point is well-made. Much of the campaign has been occupied by claims and counter-claims about the damage that Brexit or continued membership would do to British prosperity. | Equally, Cameron should not listen to those who want George Osborne to be the fall guy. As one very well-placed source observes: “The only thing everyone seems to agree on in this debate is that the British economy is strong.” Well, perhaps not everyone – Jeremy Corbyn, for a start, would demur. But the general point is well-made. Much of the campaign has been occupied by claims and counter-claims about the damage that Brexit or continued membership would do to British prosperity. |
| Since 2010, the impulse to blame Osborne for just about everything and to call for his scalp has become instinctive to the point that it is meaningless. What is already certain is that “Brexit”, as a political idea, a symbol of liberation from outside control and a focus for campaigning, is here to stay; it will not be drained from the nation’s cultural plumbing by a vote to remain. | Since 2010, the impulse to blame Osborne for just about everything and to call for his scalp has become instinctive to the point that it is meaningless. What is already certain is that “Brexit”, as a political idea, a symbol of liberation from outside control and a focus for campaigning, is here to stay; it will not be drained from the nation’s cultural plumbing by a vote to remain. |
| Vote Leave has been an effective leadership campaign masquerading as a referendum team. As disclosed in this column in April, Cameron’s allies have been preparing for the vote of confidence that they believe may be ahead of their boss, irrespective of the referendum result. | Vote Leave has been an effective leadership campaign masquerading as a referendum team. As disclosed in this column in April, Cameron’s allies have been preparing for the vote of confidence that they believe may be ahead of their boss, irrespective of the referendum result. |
| Related: Take your country back from those who seek to destroy it | Nick Cohen | Related: Take your country back from those who seek to destroy it | Nick Cohen |
| Such a vote would be triggered by the collection of 50 names of Tory MPs – 15% of the parliamentary party – demanding that the collective faith in their boss be formally tested. Inasmuch as they can ever be certain about such matters, the PM’s inner circle is confident that he has the numbers to see him through. What they cannot do yet is taste the bitter adrenaline that will surge through the Tory body when the result of the referendum is known, and what impact that will have upon the mood of the party. | |
| Yes, in 10 and a half years of leadership, Cameron has accrued his fair share of enemies within and, much worse, stocked the benches with the disenfranchised, disappointed and plain bored. Some Tories have not forgiven him for gay marriage (absurd, I know – but remember that some of them really are Conservative). Many deplored the coalition with the Lib Dems. Boris makes them feel good. Dave reminds them of the complexity of government and the steepness of the climb. As ever, heart quarrels with head. But the Tories are not ready to dump Cameron as they were Iain Duncan Smith in 2003 or as Labour was to force Tony Blair to name the date in 2006. He can still hang on – if he wants to. | Yes, in 10 and a half years of leadership, Cameron has accrued his fair share of enemies within and, much worse, stocked the benches with the disenfranchised, disappointed and plain bored. Some Tories have not forgiven him for gay marriage (absurd, I know – but remember that some of them really are Conservative). Many deplored the coalition with the Lib Dems. Boris makes them feel good. Dave reminds them of the complexity of government and the steepness of the climb. As ever, heart quarrels with head. But the Tories are not ready to dump Cameron as they were Iain Duncan Smith in 2003 or as Labour was to force Tony Blair to name the date in 2006. He can still hang on – if he wants to. |
| Will he? For now, I suspect he will. If Britain chooses departure, Cameron will immediately find himself at odds with Vote Leave. He regards it as his solemn duty to mobilise exit from the EU as soon as possible, by invoking Article 50 of the Treaty on European Union. This would give the UK negotiators two years to complete their work, unless an extension were granted by the other 27 member states. | Will he? For now, I suspect he will. If Britain chooses departure, Cameron will immediately find himself at odds with Vote Leave. He regards it as his solemn duty to mobilise exit from the EU as soon as possible, by invoking Article 50 of the Treaty on European Union. This would give the UK negotiators two years to complete their work, unless an extension were granted by the other 27 member states. |
| The leave team would prefer a more relaxed, evolutionary pace. As Michael Gove put it on 8 June in a piece for Portland, the communication agency: “The day after we vote to leave, no laws will have changed, no iron shutters will have clanked down at the portal of the Channel Tunnel … It will be in Britain’s hands how we manage it and how long it takes.” | The leave team would prefer a more relaxed, evolutionary pace. As Michael Gove put it on 8 June in a piece for Portland, the communication agency: “The day after we vote to leave, no laws will have changed, no iron shutters will have clanked down at the portal of the Channel Tunnel … It will be in Britain’s hands how we manage it and how long it takes.” |
| In truth, this is more an expression of hope than a statement of fact. Of course our soon-to-be-former EU partners would have an interest in preserving their trade with the UK. But it stretches credulity to claim that the recently spurned 27 will be helpful and smiley as we reject their union. At any rate, the negotiating team should be small and have a clear chain of command. If the need for such a body becomes clear, why not put David Davis at its head? He is a former minister of state for Europe, and also chaired the public accounts committee. He is a Brexiter, but has seen Osborne three times in the last month or so. He might just fit the bill. | In truth, this is more an expression of hope than a statement of fact. Of course our soon-to-be-former EU partners would have an interest in preserving their trade with the UK. But it stretches credulity to claim that the recently spurned 27 will be helpful and smiley as we reject their union. At any rate, the negotiating team should be small and have a clear chain of command. If the need for such a body becomes clear, why not put David Davis at its head? He is a former minister of state for Europe, and also chaired the public accounts committee. He is a Brexiter, but has seen Osborne three times in the last month or so. He might just fit the bill. |
| Whatever happens on 23 June, a reckoning lies ahead. We are plunging into the depths of the national psyche in search of answers, and the consequences will be with us for decades. Whether we decide to stay or dare to go, be in no doubt that this is, most assuredly, only the beginning. | |