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| EU referendum is biggest political betting event in British history | |
| (about 1 hour later) | |
| At least£40.5m has been gambled so far on the outcome of the EU referendum, making it the biggest political betting event in British history. | At least£40.5m has been gambled so far on the outcome of the EU referendum, making it the biggest political betting event in British history. |
| The looming vote has prompted some people to place bets for the first time, including a woman from central London who has placed her first bet by putting £100,000 on the UK voting to stay. She stands to make £40,000 if the vote goes her way. | The looming vote has prompted some people to place bets for the first time, including a woman from central London who has placed her first bet by putting £100,000 on the UK voting to stay. She stands to make £40,000 if the vote goes her way. |
| Another woman, from Kingston, south-west London, has gambled for the first time by staking £10,000 on leave, according to William Hill. | Another woman, from Kingston, south-west London, has gambled for the first time by staking £10,000 on leave, according to William Hill. |
| Betfair says £40.5m has already been traded on the Betfair Exchange on the referendum, split equally between backers and layers. | Betfair says £40.5m has already been traded on the Betfair Exchange on the referendum, split equally between backers and layers. |
| This means it has beaten the Scottish independence referendum to become the most gambled upon political event in British history, although a spike in betting is anticipated on Thursday as most people wait until the last minute to decide to gamble. | This means it has beaten the Scottish independence referendum to become the most gambled upon political event in British history, although a spike in betting is anticipated on Thursday as most people wait until the last minute to decide to gamble. |
| William Hill spokesman Graham Sharpe said: “We are expecting to see a big flurry of betting on Thursday, that’s what happened in the Scottish independence referendum.” | William Hill spokesman Graham Sharpe said: “We are expecting to see a big flurry of betting on Thursday, that’s what happened in the Scottish independence referendum.” |
| He added: “There is a growing appetite for betting in politics – the Scottish independence referendum showed us that. We saw a similar phenomenon in the general election, the Labour leadership and the London mayor. | He added: “There is a growing appetite for betting in politics – the Scottish independence referendum showed us that. We saw a similar phenomenon in the general election, the Labour leadership and the London mayor. |
| “It has spread from a niche market with people in the Westminster bubble the main clients seeking bets; now there is much more interest, people feel much more connected to this event.” | “It has spread from a niche market with people in the Westminster bubble the main clients seeking bets; now there is much more interest, people feel much more connected to this event.” |
| Bookies said that with just a few days to go until the vote betting has swung behind remain. | Bookies said that with just a few days to go until the vote betting has swung behind remain. |
| On Monday William Hill cut their odds for remain twice, as they went from 4/11 to 1/3 and then to 2/7 (a 77% chance), while leave was lengthened twice, from 11/5 to 9/4, then to 13/5 (a 27% chance). | On Monday William Hill cut their odds for remain twice, as they went from 4/11 to 1/3 and then to 2/7 (a 77% chance), while leave was lengthened twice, from 11/5 to 9/4, then to 13/5 (a 27% chance). |
| While Betfair also placed the odds for remain at 2/7 – the best since May – while Brexit odds have drifted to 7/2, equivalent to a 22% chance. | While Betfair also placed the odds for remain at 2/7 – the best since May – while Brexit odds have drifted to 7/2, equivalent to a 22% chance. |
| Betfair spokeswoman Naomi Totten said: “With just three days left until the vote the Betfair market momentum is now all behind remain, which was backed as low as 1/5 this morning, with one customer backing it to the tune of £100k. | Betfair spokeswoman Naomi Totten said: “With just three days left until the vote the Betfair market momentum is now all behind remain, which was backed as low as 1/5 this morning, with one customer backing it to the tune of £100k. |
| “This market continues to mimic the pattern of the Scottish referendum, where historical confidence in the eventual ‘no’ vote slipped slightly 10 days before referendum day only to resettle in the week of the vote.” | “This market continues to mimic the pattern of the Scottish referendum, where historical confidence in the eventual ‘no’ vote slipped slightly 10 days before referendum day only to resettle in the week of the vote.” |
| Sharpe said so far 66% of all the money staked on the EU referendum has been placed on remain, but 69% of all individual bets placed are for leave. | Sharpe said so far 66% of all the money staked on the EU referendum has been placed on remain, but 69% of all individual bets placed are for leave. |