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| Clinton on Trump's economic plan: he will 'drive us off a cliff' – campaign live | Clinton on Trump's economic plan: he will 'drive us off a cliff' – campaign live |
| (35 minutes later) | |
| 4.59pm BST | |
| 16:59 | |
| Mark Cuban, the Dallas Mavericks owner and media mogul, whose skepticism about Trump’s fortune we cited in the previous post, has served up a new round of Trump-doubt. | |
| Cuban, a bona fide billionaire, does not think Trump is as rich as Trump claims he is. (Trump claims he is worth $10bn; Forbes last fall said $4.5bn; but there are at least 10 reasons to doubt that Trump is indeed a billionaire.) | |
| If @realDonaldTrump were fractionally as rich as he says he is,he would write a$200mm check to propel his campaign. He doesn't have the cash | |
| 4.48pm BST | |
| 16:48 | |
| Trump says fundraising so far 'incredible' | |
| The Donald Trump campaign has released a statement explaining FEC filings that showed the campaign raised only $3m in May and has just $1.3m on hand, compared with Clinton’s $42.5m cash on hand. | |
| Trump recapitulates an explanation he used Friday to explain his slumping poll numbers. Basically, he says, he hasn’t started yet: | |
| The month of June represents the first full month of fundraising activity for the campaign and this will be reflected in the June FEC report,” the statement says. “The campaign held its first campaign fundraising event on May 25th, 2016. To date, the campaign’s fundraising has been incredible and we continue to see a tremendous outpouring of support for Mr. Trump and money to the Republican Party. | |
| In an addendum to the statement, Trump promises that he “would put up my own money” for the general election, implicitly claiming a personal liquidity and willingness to spend big that critics have questioned, for example: | |
| 1) I expect @realDonaldTrump to try to calm down. He doesn't have the cash to fund his campaign, he needs to appease donors quickly | |
| Trump said: | |
| If need be, there could be unlimited “cash on hand” as I would put up my own money, as I have already done through the primaries, spending over $50 million dollars. Our campaign is leaner and more efficient, like our government should be. | |
| Updated | |
| at 4.55pm BST | |
| 4.33pm BST | |
| 16:33 | |
| Clinton to attack Trump on economy | |
| Hillary Clinton is scheduled to begin her remarks on Donald Trump and the economy in Columbus, Ohio, shortly. Here’s a live video stream: | |
| 4.26pm BST | 4.26pm BST |
| 16:26 | 16:26 |
| The Pennsylvania question | The Pennsylvania question |
| The Quinnipiac University poll of the swing states of Florida, Ohio and Pennsylvania we mentioned in the intro bears further examination, if only because it’s a great excuse to have a look at the electoral map. | The Quinnipiac University poll of the swing states of Florida, Ohio and Pennsylvania we mentioned in the intro bears further examination, if only because it’s a great excuse to have a look at the electoral map. |
| The best news in the poll for Hillary Clinton is in Florida, where she leads Donald Trump by eight points, 47-39, compared with a one-point lead, 43-42, in the same poll on 10 May. | The best news in the poll for Hillary Clinton is in Florida, where she leads Donald Trump by eight points, 47-39, compared with a one-point lead, 43-42, in the same poll on 10 May. |
| Florida is very important. If Clinton wins the 18 states (plus Washington, DC) that Democrats have won in every presidential election going back to 1992, and then wins Florida, she wins the presidency with 271 electoral votes. | Florida is very important. If Clinton wins the 18 states (plus Washington, DC) that Democrats have won in every presidential election going back to 1992, and then wins Florida, she wins the presidency with 271 electoral votes. |
| Here’s a map of the stronghold states (WHICH, one should note, can and will change, but here’s how it’s been going): | Here’s a map of the stronghold states (WHICH, one should note, can and will change, but here’s how it’s been going): |
| Can Clinton count on those 18 states to hold in 2016? Trump has vowed to flip his home state, New York, and other states such as California and New Jersey to the Republicans. The idea bespeaks wild optimism crossing over into the “delusional”, to borrow a word from keen elections observer Stuart Rothenberg. | Can Clinton count on those 18 states to hold in 2016? Trump has vowed to flip his home state, New York, and other states such as California and New Jersey to the Republicans. The idea bespeaks wild optimism crossing over into the “delusional”, to borrow a word from keen elections observer Stuart Rothenberg. |
| Clinton could well build on those 18 states, starting with New Mexico, with its large Latino population, and Colorado, ditto, and Virginia, which Obama won twice and which is currently governed by Clinton best friend Terry McAuliffe who this spring returned the right to vote to as many as 200,000 former felons in the state. | Clinton could well build on those 18 states, starting with New Mexico, with its large Latino population, and Colorado, ditto, and Virginia, which Obama won twice and which is currently governed by Clinton best friend Terry McAuliffe who this spring returned the right to vote to as many as 200,000 former felons in the state. |
| But say Clinton must keep those 18 plus DC. Which brings us to Pennsylvania, with its 20 electoral votes. The Quinnipiac poll finds the race virtually unchanged from a month ago, at 42-41 Clinton-Trump. | But say Clinton must keep those 18 plus DC. Which brings us to Pennsylvania, with its 20 electoral votes. The Quinnipiac poll finds the race virtually unchanged from a month ago, at 42-41 Clinton-Trump. |
| Can Clinton hold Pennsylvania? Dave Wasserman of the Cook Political Report and others have identified the state as a possible surprise pickup for Republicans, based on the growth of Republican-leaning, former mining and steel territory in the west, versus Philadelphia and its suburbs, which are bedrock Democratic territory. Wasserman wrote last month: | Can Clinton hold Pennsylvania? Dave Wasserman of the Cook Political Report and others have identified the state as a possible surprise pickup for Republicans, based on the growth of Republican-leaning, former mining and steel territory in the west, versus Philadelphia and its suburbs, which are bedrock Democratic territory. Wasserman wrote last month: |
| As it turns out, Colorado and Virginia are among the top 10 fastest Democratic-trending states in the nation — they are, respectively, getting about 0.9 percentage points and 1.2 points more Democratic-leaning compared with the country every four years. By contrast, Pennsylvania has gradually migrated in the opposite direction. It’s gotten about 0.4 percentage points more Republican every four years. | As it turns out, Colorado and Virginia are among the top 10 fastest Democratic-trending states in the nation — they are, respectively, getting about 0.9 percentage points and 1.2 points more Democratic-leaning compared with the country every four years. By contrast, Pennsylvania has gradually migrated in the opposite direction. It’s gotten about 0.4 percentage points more Republican every four years. |
| Projecting this trend forward another four years from 2012’s results would reorder the existing battleground states on the 2016 electoral map. | Projecting this trend forward another four years from 2012’s results would reorder the existing battleground states on the 2016 electoral map. |
| If Clinton did lose Pennsylvania, it would have serious electoral implications (not least owing to what such a loss would imply about the strength of her campaign in general). She would have much more need for Florida, in addition to a couple other swing states. | If Clinton did lose Pennsylvania, it would have serious electoral implications (not least owing to what such a loss would imply about the strength of her campaign in general). She would have much more need for Florida, in addition to a couple other swing states. |
| So let the argument over Pennsylvania commence. Rothenberg notes that “Republican strategists begin almost every presidential election talking about snatching Pennsylvania and Wisconsin from the Democratic column, and each time they have failed.” Maybe this year’s different? | So let the argument over Pennsylvania commence. Rothenberg notes that “Republican strategists begin almost every presidential election talking about snatching Pennsylvania and Wisconsin from the Democratic column, and each time they have failed.” Maybe this year’s different? |
| Former Barack Obama campaign manager David Plouffe throws a little cold water on Clinton’s Florida lead in the Quinnipiac poll – but outright dismisses the notion of a close Pennsylvania race: | |
| The Q(uestionable) Polls out today causing lots of commotion. Clinton won't win FL by 8 and has zero chance of losing PA. Zero. | The Q(uestionable) Polls out today causing lots of commotion. Clinton won't win FL by 8 and has zero chance of losing PA. Zero. |
| Really? Have you been to PA this year and talked to folks? https://t.co/KkoEKZ7pqB | Really? Have you been to PA this year and talked to folks? https://t.co/KkoEKZ7pqB |
| Finally, a reminder: it’s one poll and the election is more than four months away. | Finally, a reminder: it’s one poll and the election is more than four months away. |
| Here's a thought: maybe state polls 4+ months before the election are a little noisy and we should mostly ignore them. | Here's a thought: maybe state polls 4+ months before the election are a little noisy and we should mostly ignore them. |
| Updated | |
| at 4.37pm BST | |
| 3.27pm BST | 3.27pm BST |
| 15:27 | 15:27 |
| Trump to attack Clinton in speech | Trump to attack Clinton in speech |
| The Trump campaign has announced a speech tomorrow in Manhattan in which the candidate will describe the failings of his all-but-certain-general-election opponent, Hillary Clinton. | The Trump campaign has announced a speech tomorrow in Manhattan in which the candidate will describe the failings of his all-but-certain-general-election opponent, Hillary Clinton. |
| Trump originally planned to deliver the speech last week but shelved it after the Orlando shooting, his campaign said. | Trump originally planned to deliver the speech last week but shelved it after the Orlando shooting, his campaign said. |
| I will be making a big speech tomorrow to discuss the failed policies and bad judgment of Crooked Hillary Clinton. | I will be making a big speech tomorrow to discuss the failed policies and bad judgment of Crooked Hillary Clinton. |
| 3.18pm BST | 3.18pm BST |
| 15:18 | 15:18 |
| Trump makes fundraising push | Trump makes fundraising push |
| In an effort to goose fundraising, Donald Trump has vowed to match donations in the next 48 hours up to $2m, “personally”. | In an effort to goose fundraising, Donald Trump has vowed to match donations in the next 48 hours up to $2m, “personally”. |
| The email is goofy bordering on self-parodic in the Trump way. The email boasts that it is the first fundraising email the Trump campaign has ever sent and predicts that it will be “the most successful introductory fundraising email in modern political history”: | The email is goofy bordering on self-parodic in the Trump way. The email boasts that it is the first fundraising email the Trump campaign has ever sent and predicts that it will be “the most successful introductory fundraising email in modern political history”: |
| Trump fundraising email "personally matching every dollar that comes in WITHIN THE NEXT 48 HOURS, up to $2 million!" pic.twitter.com/4oHUggS4cy | Trump fundraising email "personally matching every dollar that comes in WITHIN THE NEXT 48 HOURS, up to $2 million!" pic.twitter.com/4oHUggS4cy |
| Update: heh. | Update: heh. |
| Dear Beloved Friend, I know this message comes as a surprise but I am the nominee for the GOP and have lost my wallet. Can you please send | Dear Beloved Friend, I know this message comes as a surprise but I am the nominee for the GOP and have lost my wallet. Can you please send |
| Updated | Updated |
| at 3.42pm BST | at 3.42pm BST |
| 1.45pm BST | 1.45pm BST |
| 13:45 | 13:45 |
| Hello, and welcome to our live-wire coverage of the 2016 race for the White House. Hillary Clinton plans to attack Donald Trump’s business record and policy plans in a speech in Columbus, Ohio, today. “If you put Donald Trump in the steering wheel of the American economy, he is very likely to drive us off a cliff,” Clintons plans to say, according to senior policy adviser Jake Sullivan (quoted in Bloomberg). | Hello, and welcome to our live-wire coverage of the 2016 race for the White House. Hillary Clinton plans to attack Donald Trump’s business record and policy plans in a speech in Columbus, Ohio, today. “If you put Donald Trump in the steering wheel of the American economy, he is very likely to drive us off a cliff,” Clintons plans to say, according to senior policy adviser Jake Sullivan (quoted in Bloomberg). |
| Clinton may also choose to dwell on the startling revelation from FEC filings on Monday evening that the Trump campaign is basically a pauper campaign, with only $1.3m cash on hand, which stacks up miserably next to Clinton, who reported $42.5m cash on hand, and to past campaigns (in May 2012, Mitt Romney raised $23.4m and had more than $17m in the bank). | Clinton may also choose to dwell on the startling revelation from FEC filings on Monday evening that the Trump campaign is basically a pauper campaign, with only $1.3m cash on hand, which stacks up miserably next to Clinton, who reported $42.5m cash on hand, and to past campaigns (in May 2012, Mitt Romney raised $23.4m and had more than $17m in the bank). |
| Trouble for Trump? Hillary Clinton’s campaign has more cash than ever https://t.co/MwY5xBb7Ag | Trouble for Trump? Hillary Clinton’s campaign has more cash than ever https://t.co/MwY5xBb7Ag |
| If there's one thing GOP grandees know it's money and Trump is looking seriously small time here, like tiny tiny hands time | If there's one thing GOP grandees know it's money and Trump is looking seriously small time here, like tiny tiny hands time |
| More disturbing for Trump supporters, perhaps, was the amount of money flowing directly from the campaign to Trump companies and family members. Trump’s single biggest campaign expense in May was a payment of $423,371.70 to Mar-a-Lago, his Florida resort. More than $1m went to his companies or to his family, out of less than $7m spending total. Viz: | More disturbing for Trump supporters, perhaps, was the amount of money flowing directly from the campaign to Trump companies and family members. Trump’s single biggest campaign expense in May was a payment of $423,371.70 to Mar-a-Lago, his Florida resort. More than $1m went to his companies or to his family, out of less than $7m spending total. Viz: |
| Recipients of payments from Trump campaign with “Trump” in name, through May 31. Doesn’t include Mar-a-Lago/planes. pic.twitter.com/JF6skaWYGF | Recipients of payments from Trump campaign with “Trump” in name, through May 31. Doesn’t include Mar-a-Lago/planes. pic.twitter.com/JF6skaWYGF |
| Not only is he not "self-funding," he's grifting from his own campaign. https://t.co/ygp25KURXC | Not only is he not "self-funding," he's grifting from his own campaign. https://t.co/ygp25KURXC |
| Trump defended his balance sheet on Tuesday morning, reported NBC’s Mark Murray: | Trump defended his balance sheet on Tuesday morning, reported NBC’s Mark Murray: |
| Trump on @TODAYshow on his May FEC report: "I understand money far better than anybody" | Trump on @TODAYshow on his May FEC report: "I understand money far better than anybody" |
| Trump says he *might* dip into his wallet for the general-elex: I have a lot of cash and I may do it again in the general election | Trump says he *might* dip into his wallet for the general-elex: I have a lot of cash and I may do it again in the general election |
| Meanwhile, Trump said on the @TODAYshow that replacing Corey Lewandowski as campaign manager was a matter of moving from the primaries to the general election. “We are going in a different direction.” | Meanwhile, Trump said on the @TODAYshow that replacing Corey Lewandowski as campaign manager was a matter of moving from the primaries to the general election. “We are going in a different direction.” |
| Meanwhile, Bernie Sanders has about 8x as much money in the bank as Trump https://t.co/Yuccf4ZGzj | Meanwhile, Bernie Sanders has about 8x as much money in the bank as Trump https://t.co/Yuccf4ZGzj |
| Clinton up in new polls | Clinton up in new polls |
| A new CNN/ORC national poll, conducted 16-19 June, had Clinton ahead of Trump 47-42. A new NBC/Survey Monkey poll on the same dates had Clinton ahead by six points, steady from the week before, but among Republican and Republican-leaning voters, Trump’s support “grew two points this week from last week, from 84% to 86%”. | A new CNN/ORC national poll, conducted 16-19 June, had Clinton ahead of Trump 47-42. A new NBC/Survey Monkey poll on the same dates had Clinton ahead by six points, steady from the week before, but among Republican and Republican-leaning voters, Trump’s support “grew two points this week from last week, from 84% to 86%”. |
| Clinton had opened up a lead on Trump in the key swing state of Florida, meanwhile, according to a new Quinnipiac poll, and the candidates were in tight races in Ohio and Pennsylvania: | Clinton had opened up a lead on Trump in the key swing state of Florida, meanwhile, according to a new Quinnipiac poll, and the candidates were in tight races in Ohio and Pennsylvania: |
| New Q polls (via @mmurraypolitics)FLClinton 47Trump 39OHClinton 40Trump 40PAClinton 42Trump 41 pic.twitter.com/cWKfNfoeSI | New Q polls (via @mmurraypolitics)FLClinton 47Trump 39OHClinton 40Trump 40PAClinton 42Trump 41 pic.twitter.com/cWKfNfoeSI |
| Gun safety measures fall in Senate | Gun safety measures fall in Senate |
| Republicans voted down four gun safety measures in the Senate on Monday evening. In reply, Clinton issued a one-word statement: “enough”. | Republicans voted down four gun safety measures in the Senate on Monday evening. In reply, Clinton issued a one-word statement: “enough”. |
| Hillary Clinton's statement on the Senate gun vote is just one word ("Enough"), and many names. pic.twitter.com/lYrwBWKP5h | Hillary Clinton's statement on the Senate gun vote is just one word ("Enough"), and many names. pic.twitter.com/lYrwBWKP5h |
| Benghazi panel misses deadline | Benghazi panel misses deadline |
| Benghazi panel misses self-imposed deadline to issue report, by @MatthewDalyWDC:https://t.co/qTMHe3kPA6 | Benghazi panel misses self-imposed deadline to issue report, by @MatthewDalyWDC:https://t.co/qTMHe3kPA6 |
| Video: British man arrested at Trump rally ‘after trying to seize police gun’ | Video: British man arrested at Trump rally ‘after trying to seize police gun’ |
| Updated | Updated |
| at 2.15pm BST | at 2.15pm BST |