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| David Cameron isn't the only leader facing conflicting pressures about Brexit David Cameron isn't the only leader facing conflicting pressures about Brexit | |
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| The British prime minister, David Cameron, is not the only party political leader facing conflicting pressures from his supporters as the country staggers towards Thursday’s divisive Brexit referendum on whether it should leave the 28-nation European Union. In Scotland’s devolved government in Edinburgh, the ruling Scottish National party (SNP) is widely suspected of gaming the campaign to secure a second referendum on independence north of the border. | The British prime minister, David Cameron, is not the only party political leader facing conflicting pressures from his supporters as the country staggers towards Thursday’s divisive Brexit referendum on whether it should leave the 28-nation European Union. In Scotland’s devolved government in Edinburgh, the ruling Scottish National party (SNP) is widely suspected of gaming the campaign to secure a second referendum on independence north of the border. |
| Tensions within the UK’s main opposition Labour party are well documented. Jeremy Corbyn – the Bernie Sanders of Westminster politics – was elected as Labour’s most leftwing leader in 80 years during the activist revolt against two successive election defeats last year. His has been a vocal anti-EU analysis throughout his 30-year career as an MP. | Tensions within the UK’s main opposition Labour party are well documented. Jeremy Corbyn – the Bernie Sanders of Westminster politics – was elected as Labour’s most leftwing leader in 80 years during the activist revolt against two successive election defeats last year. His has been a vocal anti-EU analysis throughout his 30-year career as an MP. |
| But the overwhelming bulk of his parliamentary party insisted that the new leader (for whom most of them did not vote) back the pro-EU Remain campaign as a price for their support. Corbyn is widely considered to have done so half-heartedly, saying “Vote Remain to protect workers’ rights from unbridled capitalism” while also stressing his disdain for the EU. It “isn’t perfect”, he admits, although he rejects the fall-guy role being shaped for him, especially if too few Labour voters turn out. | But the overwhelming bulk of his parliamentary party insisted that the new leader (for whom most of them did not vote) back the pro-EU Remain campaign as a price for their support. Corbyn is widely considered to have done so half-heartedly, saying “Vote Remain to protect workers’ rights from unbridled capitalism” while also stressing his disdain for the EU. It “isn’t perfect”, he admits, although he rejects the fall-guy role being shaped for him, especially if too few Labour voters turn out. |
| Sounds tortured? It is straightforward by comparison with the position of Nicola Sturgeon, first minister of Scotland since her SNP predecessor, Alex Salmond, resigned in the wake of the relatively narrow (55:45%) defeat of the 2014 referendum on ending Scotland’s 309-year Act of Union with England. | Sounds tortured? It is straightforward by comparison with the position of Nicola Sturgeon, first minister of Scotland since her SNP predecessor, Alex Salmond, resigned in the wake of the relatively narrow (55:45%) defeat of the 2014 referendum on ending Scotland’s 309-year Act of Union with England. |
| Far from defeat deflating the SNP, the party went on to take 56 of the 59 Scottish seats in the subsequent UK general election last year, having already won a majority at Scotland’s parliament in Edinburgh. Labour has all but collapsed there, as the Tories did in the Thatcherite 1980s. But the SNP and its allies believe that only full independence from London will allow Scotland to fulfill its thwarted destiny. Nationalists are prone to discount their own considerable role in – and profit from – the British empire’s heyday. | Far from defeat deflating the SNP, the party went on to take 56 of the 59 Scottish seats in the subsequent UK general election last year, having already won a majority at Scotland’s parliament in Edinburgh. Labour has all but collapsed there, as the Tories did in the Thatcherite 1980s. But the SNP and its allies believe that only full independence from London will allow Scotland to fulfill its thwarted destiny. Nationalists are prone to discount their own considerable role in – and profit from – the British empire’s heyday. |
| Stugeon, a 46-year-old lawyer, is a tough politician with high personal ratings. So she has been able to throw into reverse many of her own “Take Back Control” arguments from 2014 and claim that Britain, Scotland included, would be better off inside a single market of 500 million people than one of 65 million. She is a “civic nationalist”, internationalist and pro-EU, she insists, campaigning vigorously for Remain. | Stugeon, a 46-year-old lawyer, is a tough politician with high personal ratings. So she has been able to throw into reverse many of her own “Take Back Control” arguments from 2014 and claim that Britain, Scotland included, would be better off inside a single market of 500 million people than one of 65 million. She is a “civic nationalist”, internationalist and pro-EU, she insists, campaigning vigorously for Remain. |
| In fact, it is easier to argue for Brexit than for what some Scots have called Scexit. No one disputes that Britain pays around £8.5bn ($12.4bn) a year net to the EU, whereas Scotland benefits in cash terms from its UK partnership. Edinburgh would also lack its own currency; the UK would not. | In fact, it is easier to argue for Brexit than for what some Scots have called Scexit. No one disputes that Britain pays around £8.5bn ($12.4bn) a year net to the EU, whereas Scotland benefits in cash terms from its UK partnership. Edinburgh would also lack its own currency; the UK would not. |
| The SNP has long argued that Scotland is more progressive than reactionary England, more generous to the poor, more welcoming to migrants. Yet Scotland has now elected an anti-EU member of the UK Independence party to the European parliament, its resentments perhaps less different from England’s than claimed. | The SNP has long argued that Scotland is more progressive than reactionary England, more generous to the poor, more welcoming to migrants. Yet Scotland has now elected an anti-EU member of the UK Independence party to the European parliament, its resentments perhaps less different from England’s than claimed. |
| Up to a third of SNP voters – for whom “sovereignty” is the Holy Grail – may thus defy Sturgeon and vote for Brexit on Thursday. But how disappointed would Sturgeon be? She has repeatedly said that if England votes for Brexit on Thursday, but Scotland votes for Remain, that will justify a second independence referendum. Whether Scotland would readily be readmitted by an EU fearful of breakaway movements in Spain and elsewhere remains a moot point. | Up to a third of SNP voters – for whom “sovereignty” is the Holy Grail – may thus defy Sturgeon and vote for Brexit on Thursday. But how disappointed would Sturgeon be? She has repeatedly said that if England votes for Brexit on Thursday, but Scotland votes for Remain, that will justify a second independence referendum. Whether Scotland would readily be readmitted by an EU fearful of breakaway movements in Spain and elsewhere remains a moot point. |
| Across Britain, some voters may vote Remain rather than risk a UK break-up. Cameron hammers home the point. With global oil prices still less than half what they were when the SNP did its (optimistic) feasibility studies for financial independence, most analysts think Sturgeon would be keen to avoid risking a second defeat. Who is bluffing whom? | Across Britain, some voters may vote Remain rather than risk a UK break-up. Cameron hammers home the point. With global oil prices still less than half what they were when the SNP did its (optimistic) feasibility studies for financial independence, most analysts think Sturgeon would be keen to avoid risking a second defeat. Who is bluffing whom? |
| Smaller and poorer (3 million people to Scotland’s 5 million), Wales knows much of its regional development funding comes from Europe, which has long promoted such development (better than London does, some say), and is broadly pro-EU. Even Wales has now been penetrated by Ukip, the protest party for disaffected blue-collar workers. The fate of the great steelworks at Port Talbot, which its Indian owners, Tata, wish to sell, may tip some votes. Who is to blame for not curbing Chinese dumped steel, London or Brussels? | Smaller and poorer (3 million people to Scotland’s 5 million), Wales knows much of its regional development funding comes from Europe, which has long promoted such development (better than London does, some say), and is broadly pro-EU. Even Wales has now been penetrated by Ukip, the protest party for disaffected blue-collar workers. The fate of the great steelworks at Port Talbot, which its Indian owners, Tata, wish to sell, may tip some votes. Who is to blame for not curbing Chinese dumped steel, London or Brussels? |
| As usual, Northern Ireland is divided. The republican Sinn Féin – historically the political wing of the IRA – is nowadays pro-EU. The Democratic Unionist party, its coalition partner in the devolved parliament at Stormont in the Belfast suburbs, is naturally pro-Brexit, “loyalist” to British nationalism in its own tribal way. Will a Brexit win weaken the still-ongoing Northern Irish peace process, hasten or lessen prospects for a united Ireland? No one knows. | As usual, Northern Ireland is divided. The republican Sinn Féin – historically the political wing of the IRA – is nowadays pro-EU. The Democratic Unionist party, its coalition partner in the devolved parliament at Stormont in the Belfast suburbs, is naturally pro-Brexit, “loyalist” to British nationalism in its own tribal way. Will a Brexit win weaken the still-ongoing Northern Irish peace process, hasten or lessen prospects for a united Ireland? No one knows. |
| When the hyperbole is over and Thursday’s votes counted – sterling and the London stock market rallied overnight on signs that Remain is regaining ground – Britain’s national and devolved governments will have to muddle through whatever voters have decided. | When the hyperbole is over and Thursday’s votes counted – sterling and the London stock market rallied overnight on signs that Remain is regaining ground – Britain’s national and devolved governments will have to muddle through whatever voters have decided. |
| Either way, centuries of living in an unusually centralised unitary UK state with its flexible, unwritten constitution – so different from the federal structures devised by the 13 ex-colonies after 1783 – is already coming to an end. The Brits devised a federal constitution for Germany in 1945 but declined to embrace its principles themselves. | Either way, centuries of living in an unusually centralised unitary UK state with its flexible, unwritten constitution – so different from the federal structures devised by the 13 ex-colonies after 1783 – is already coming to an end. The Brits devised a federal constitution for Germany in 1945 but declined to embrace its principles themselves. |
| But since 1999 power is slowly being devolved from Whitehall and Westminster to regional parliaments such as Holyrood and elected big city mayors such as New York, Paris or Berlin. Cosmopolitan London (strongly pro-Remain) went first, soon to be followed by Manchester and others. In or out of the EU, the drive for better, more accountable and responsive government will not stop. | But since 1999 power is slowly being devolved from Whitehall and Westminster to regional parliaments such as Holyrood and elected big city mayors such as New York, Paris or Berlin. Cosmopolitan London (strongly pro-Remain) went first, soon to be followed by Manchester and others. In or out of the EU, the drive for better, more accountable and responsive government will not stop. |
| Michael White is a former political editor and Washington correspondent of the Guardian | Michael White is a former political editor and Washington correspondent of the Guardian |