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You want to stay in the EU – but what are you voting FOR? You want to stay in the EU – but what are you voting for?
(about 3 hours later)
The British prime minister, Dan Jarvis, wasn’t expecting much media interest in the June 2026 EU summit. There would be the inevitable flurry of 10-year anniversary pieces recalling the day Britain voted to stay in the EU, but these would be drowned out by England crashing out of the World Cup, while the latest volume of Boris Johnson’s memoirs had reopened the Tory wars about the great party split of 2017.The British prime minister, Dan Jarvis, wasn’t expecting much media interest in the June 2026 EU summit. There would be the inevitable flurry of 10-year anniversary pieces recalling the day Britain voted to stay in the EU, but these would be drowned out by England crashing out of the World Cup, while the latest volume of Boris Johnson’s memoirs had reopened the Tory wars about the great party split of 2017.
After the crisis decade of 2008-18, the EU was a routine story again. By 2022 Europe’s unemployment had fallen to a record low, boosted by a switch to renewable energy and booming tech industry. The EU had got a grip on the migration crisis, although pressure had not gone away, as population growth and drought brought a new wave of climate refugees from sub-Saharan Africa.After the crisis decade of 2008-18, the EU was a routine story again. By 2022 Europe’s unemployment had fallen to a record low, boosted by a switch to renewable energy and booming tech industry. The EU had got a grip on the migration crisis, although pressure had not gone away, as population growth and drought brought a new wave of climate refugees from sub-Saharan Africa.
But the EU Marshall-style plan for north Africa and the Middle East had helped to usher in a historic peace settlement. Europe’s borderlands were also more stable: Ukraine and the Balkan states were enjoying an economic boom, after corrupt elites had been kicked out by local voters. The EU special envoy for enlargement, Michael Gove, reported that tiny Montenegro could be ready to join the EU in five years time, becoming the first new member state since Croatia in 2014.But the EU Marshall-style plan for north Africa and the Middle East had helped to usher in a historic peace settlement. Europe’s borderlands were also more stable: Ukraine and the Balkan states were enjoying an economic boom, after corrupt elites had been kicked out by local voters. The EU special envoy for enlargement, Michael Gove, reported that tiny Montenegro could be ready to join the EU in five years time, becoming the first new member state since Croatia in 2014.
If this scenario sounds dreamy, unreal and a long way from today’s European Union, that’s because it is. Even supporters describe the EU as dysfunctional and out-of-touch.If this scenario sounds dreamy, unreal and a long way from today’s European Union, that’s because it is. Even supporters describe the EU as dysfunctional and out-of-touch.
So what is the case for remain, the case that David Cameron and co have found so hard to articulate over the past four months as they try to persuade Britons to vote for the status quo? What kind of project will the UK be staying in? Is the EU doomed to stagger from one crisis to another, or can its leaders overcome the bitter divisions exposed by the Greek debt crisis and failure to manage refugees and migrants? In short, what are Britons being asked to vote FOR?So what is the case for remain, the case that David Cameron and co have found so hard to articulate over the past four months as they try to persuade Britons to vote for the status quo? What kind of project will the UK be staying in? Is the EU doomed to stagger from one crisis to another, or can its leaders overcome the bitter divisions exposed by the Greek debt crisis and failure to manage refugees and migrants? In short, what are Britons being asked to vote FOR?
The first answer, easy to overlook, is that a vote to remain means more of the same – the same undramatic, practical co-operation that oils the wheels of everyday life. British citizens will remain part of what the veteran Labour MEP Richard Corbett describes as “our neighbourhood committee”, a venture that the UK has “idealistic, pragmatic and selfish reasons” to stay in. “The fact that there are a number of interlocking crises is a vindication of the purpose of the EU,” he added. “We don’t always manage it, we don’t always manage it well but it is essential to have this structure.”The first answer, easy to overlook, is that a vote to remain means more of the same – the same undramatic, practical co-operation that oils the wheels of everyday life. British citizens will remain part of what the veteran Labour MEP Richard Corbett describes as “our neighbourhood committee”, a venture that the UK has “idealistic, pragmatic and selfish reasons” to stay in. “The fact that there are a number of interlocking crises is a vindication of the purpose of the EU,” he added. “We don’t always manage it, we don’t always manage it well but it is essential to have this structure.”
This sounds messier and less seductive than the leave slogan “take back control”. But Corbett doesn’t think so: “On matters you can’t solve by yourself you only have control by working with others.”This sounds messier and less seductive than the leave slogan “take back control”. But Corbett doesn’t think so: “On matters you can’t solve by yourself you only have control by working with others.”
For many voters, a lot of what the EU does seems banal or remote, such as regulating sugar quotas or training civil servants in Albania. Corbett cites the EU’s blood classification directive as an unsung example of practical help. This EU rule meant that when terrorists attacked London in 2005, urgently needed blood supplies from the continent could be flown in and used immediately. “That boring piece of technical legislation saved lives.”For many voters, a lot of what the EU does seems banal or remote, such as regulating sugar quotas or training civil servants in Albania. Corbett cites the EU’s blood classification directive as an unsung example of practical help. This EU rule meant that when terrorists attacked London in 2005, urgently needed blood supplies from the continent could be flown in and used immediately. “That boring piece of technical legislation saved lives.”
Not all rules save lives, but they can make life easier. Jonathan Hill, the UK’s European commissioner, points out that a vote to stay keeps Britain in the single market of 500 million consumers, maintaining “something that is working quite well in terms of trade and single market and that isn’t something to be sniffed out”.Not all rules save lives, but they can make life easier. Jonathan Hill, the UK’s European commissioner, points out that a vote to stay keeps Britain in the single market of 500 million consumers, maintaining “something that is working quite well in terms of trade and single market and that isn’t something to be sniffed out”.
“People don’t fall in love with the single market,” Lord Hill told the Guardian. “But people like the fact that as a result of the fact of this funny thing called the single market, they can go on holiday 40% cheaper than used to be the case in an airplane, or when they go on holiday they don’t have to have roaming charges.”“People don’t fall in love with the single market,” Lord Hill told the Guardian. “But people like the fact that as a result of the fact of this funny thing called the single market, they can go on holiday 40% cheaper than used to be the case in an airplane, or when they go on holiday they don’t have to have roaming charges.”
He rejects the leave argument that buying into the single market means ceding control to a European superstate. “The last thing you get is the sense of the great federalist steamroller. It’s just not going to happen.”He rejects the leave argument that buying into the single market means ceding control to a European superstate. “The last thing you get is the sense of the great federalist steamroller. It’s just not going to happen.”
Lost in the frenzy of the UK’s Europe debate, European leaders are already calling for a humbler, less ambitious EU. Whatever the British result, “we must take a long, hard look on the future of the Union”, Donald Tusk, the leader of the European council, said on Monday. This is not just the view of a former Polish prime minister, eyeing a return to national politics. Hubert Védrine, a former French foreign minister and architect of European integration, now argues that the only way to save the European project is to “liberate it from pro-European dogma”. Fifty years of unidirectional movement towards EU integration could have run its course.Lost in the frenzy of the UK’s Europe debate, European leaders are already calling for a humbler, less ambitious EU. Whatever the British result, “we must take a long, hard look on the future of the Union”, Donald Tusk, the leader of the European council, said on Monday. This is not just the view of a former Polish prime minister, eyeing a return to national politics. Hubert Védrine, a former French foreign minister and architect of European integration, now argues that the only way to save the European project is to “liberate it from pro-European dogma”. Fifty years of unidirectional movement towards EU integration could have run its course.
The Dutch finance minister, Jeroen Dijsselbloem, concludes that the EU’s failures have created fertile territory for Eurosceptics. “People are Eurosceptic for a pretty good reason,” he said. “We are not delivering on security, on the economic results.” Dijsselbloem’s answer is for the EU to complete unfinished projects, such as a European border guard or eurozone banking union, rather than “dreaming away” about the next big integrationist step, such as an EU finance minister. “Jumping on the next big adventure, creating a lot of uncertainty for people, would be the worst political reaction to where we are.”The Dutch finance minister, Jeroen Dijsselbloem, concludes that the EU’s failures have created fertile territory for Eurosceptics. “People are Eurosceptic for a pretty good reason,” he said. “We are not delivering on security, on the economic results.” Dijsselbloem’s answer is for the EU to complete unfinished projects, such as a European border guard or eurozone banking union, rather than “dreaming away” about the next big integrationist step, such as an EU finance minister. “Jumping on the next big adventure, creating a lot of uncertainty for people, would be the worst political reaction to where we are.”
The United States of Europe is a pantomime villain that doesn’t exist. In today’s EU there are 28 countries, with different histories and neuralgias. This rules out grand plans to rewrite treaties that occupied EU diplomats for much of the past decade. “Changing the treaties now is almost impossible,” said Jean-Claude Piris, a former legal adviser to the EU council of ministers. “I think it will continue like that because there are 28 and the 28 are so different. There is always an election and there is always a domestic crisis.”The United States of Europe is a pantomime villain that doesn’t exist. In today’s EU there are 28 countries, with different histories and neuralgias. This rules out grand plans to rewrite treaties that occupied EU diplomats for much of the past decade. “Changing the treaties now is almost impossible,” said Jean-Claude Piris, a former legal adviser to the EU council of ministers. “I think it will continue like that because there are 28 and the 28 are so different. There is always an election and there is always a domestic crisis.”
Insiders think the union is too big, too diverse to agree. “We don’t have a joint vision of what we want for our future,” one senior diplomat from a eurozone country told the Guardian. Successive enlargements have made the EU more heterogeneous. But the main barrier to integration is not central European populists such as Hungary’s Viktor Orbán, nor British Europhobes such as Nigel Farage.Insiders think the union is too big, too diverse to agree. “We don’t have a joint vision of what we want for our future,” one senior diplomat from a eurozone country told the Guardian. Successive enlargements have made the EU more heterogeneous. But the main barrier to integration is not central European populists such as Hungary’s Viktor Orbán, nor British Europhobes such as Nigel Farage.
Instead, the reluctance to deepen integration stems from within the six countries that started the European project in 1957. “The seed of division is within the founding fathers,” the diplomat said.Instead, the reluctance to deepen integration stems from within the six countries that started the European project in 1957. “The seed of division is within the founding fathers,” the diplomat said.
People are fed up with the European project and angry with political elites, seemingly embodied by distant Brussels mandarins. A recent survey by the Pew Centre showed that barely half the population in the biggest 10 EU countries had a favourable view of the EU. French people were even more disenchanted than the Brits, with 61% taking an unfavourable view of the EU, compared with only 48% of their neighbours across the channel.People are fed up with the European project and angry with political elites, seemingly embodied by distant Brussels mandarins. A recent survey by the Pew Centre showed that barely half the population in the biggest 10 EU countries had a favourable view of the EU. French people were even more disenchanted than the Brits, with 61% taking an unfavourable view of the EU, compared with only 48% of their neighbours across the channel.
This crisis of confidence has exploded, just as the EU is trying to deepen integration, in response to the twin crises of migration and the eurozone. Both issues are likely to pit EU countries against one another for the foreseeable future. Solutions that make everyone happy are elusive.This crisis of confidence has exploded, just as the EU is trying to deepen integration, in response to the twin crises of migration and the eurozone. Both issues are likely to pit EU countries against one another for the foreseeable future. Solutions that make everyone happy are elusive.
More countries could seek British-style opt-outs in future, suggests Jean De Ruyt, a former EU ambassador. If Britain remains in the EU, he thinks other countries, such as Denmark and the Netherlands, could look to get their own exemptions from EU law – Denmark already has several.More countries could seek British-style opt-outs in future, suggests Jean De Ruyt, a former EU ambassador. If Britain remains in the EU, he thinks other countries, such as Denmark and the Netherlands, could look to get their own exemptions from EU law – Denmark already has several.
Neither is the EU likely to admit new countries in the next decade. De Ruyt, a former Belgian diplomat, argues that the EU integrated too fast “for political reasons” with countries in central and eastern Europe, where living standards were much lower. “Now we are much more demanding and careful.”Neither is the EU likely to admit new countries in the next decade. De Ruyt, a former Belgian diplomat, argues that the EU integrated too fast “for political reasons” with countries in central and eastern Europe, where living standards were much lower. “Now we are much more demanding and careful.”
Anand Menon, professor of European studies at King’s College London, thinks the EU has fundamentally changed since the 1990s, when politicians of all countries could pull together behind the single market. “The age of great projects is gone.” He thinks the EU should return to its economic roots, by “eking out as much growth as it can via the single market”.Anand Menon, professor of European studies at King’s College London, thinks the EU has fundamentally changed since the 1990s, when politicians of all countries could pull together behind the single market. “The age of great projects is gone.” He thinks the EU should return to its economic roots, by “eking out as much growth as it can via the single market”.
Menon added: “It would be great if Britain led a charge to complete the single market in services. It is boring and it is dull and technical, but these are the areas where the European Union can make a difference.”Menon added: “It would be great if Britain led a charge to complete the single market in services. It is boring and it is dull and technical, but these are the areas where the European Union can make a difference.”
Extending the EU’s single market is the most obvious project for Britain to get involved in, as the UK stands outside the euro and Schengen. If Britain votes to stay, David Cameron will ramp up his agenda for “a leaner less bureaucratic union” competing in the “global race”, as outlined in his 2013 Bloomberg speech.Extending the EU’s single market is the most obvious project for Britain to get involved in, as the UK stands outside the euro and Schengen. If Britain votes to stay, David Cameron will ramp up his agenda for “a leaner less bureaucratic union” competing in the “global race”, as outlined in his 2013 Bloomberg speech.
In reality, there is an element of shadow boxing, as the commission has been on a deregulation drive for several years. While everyone can agree on cutting bureaucracy, what this means in reality is hazier. One person’s “burdensome red-tape” adds up to many people’s environmental standards or workplace protection.In reality, there is an element of shadow boxing, as the commission has been on a deregulation drive for several years. While everyone can agree on cutting bureaucracy, what this means in reality is hazier. One person’s “burdensome red-tape” adds up to many people’s environmental standards or workplace protection.
Brexit would shake the EU to its foundations, but a British vote to stay is likely to reinforce the trend towards an EU that is less cohesive, less united, but more focused on proving its worth to voters. The UK will find its own anxieties about globalisation, migration and fairness reflected right back. Perhaps that is the true definition of ever-closer union.Brexit would shake the EU to its foundations, but a British vote to stay is likely to reinforce the trend towards an EU that is less cohesive, less united, but more focused on proving its worth to voters. The UK will find its own anxieties about globalisation, migration and fairness reflected right back. Perhaps that is the true definition of ever-closer union.