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| How Low Can the G.O.P. Go? | How Low Can the G.O.P. Go? |
| (about 5 hours later) | |
| As Donald Trump’s campaign continues to spiral, a crucial question arises: How much collateral damage could he inflict on the Republican Party? If recent patterns in straight-ticket voting hold and Trump’s campaign continues to falter, Trump could carry a host of Republican down-ballot candidates with him to defeat. | As Donald Trump’s campaign continues to spiral, a crucial question arises: How much collateral damage could he inflict on the Republican Party? If recent patterns in straight-ticket voting hold and Trump’s campaign continues to falter, Trump could carry a host of Republican down-ballot candidates with him to defeat. |
| Take a look at the presidential election of 2012. That year, in 410 of 435 congressional districts, voters chose the presidential and House candidates of the same party. Put another way, voters split their tickets in only 5.7 percent of all congressional districts. That year, the number of congressional districts in which majorities of voters cast ballots for presidential and House candidates of different parties was the lowest since 1920, according to Vital Statistics of Congress. | Take a look at the presidential election of 2012. That year, in 410 of 435 congressional districts, voters chose the presidential and House candidates of the same party. Put another way, voters split their tickets in only 5.7 percent of all congressional districts. That year, the number of congressional districts in which majorities of voters cast ballots for presidential and House candidates of different parties was the lowest since 1920, according to Vital Statistics of Congress. |
| In the 1980s, by contrast, the percentage of congressional districts in which voters split their tickets ranged from 32.9 percent to 43.7 percent. | In the 1980s, by contrast, the percentage of congressional districts in which voters split their tickets ranged from 32.9 percent to 43.7 percent. |
| This year, according to Larry Sabato, a political scientist at the University of Virginia: | This year, according to Larry Sabato, a political scientist at the University of Virginia: |
| This concern for the fate of the broader Republican Party can be seen in the skittishness of party activists, conservatives and congressional leaders. | This concern for the fate of the broader Republican Party can be seen in the skittishness of party activists, conservatives and congressional leaders. |
| The Washington Post reported on June 20 that | The Washington Post reported on June 20 that |
| “The GOP is so screwed and it has only itself to blame,” Erick Erickson, the influential conservative commentator, wrote that same day on his website, The Resurgent. | “The GOP is so screwed and it has only itself to blame,” Erick Erickson, the influential conservative commentator, wrote that same day on his website, The Resurgent. |
| A week earlier, Mitch McConnell, the Senate majority leader, cut off reporters’ questions about Trump, declaring | A week earlier, Mitch McConnell, the Senate majority leader, cut off reporters’ questions about Trump, declaring |
| John Cornyn of Texas, the Senate Majority whip, told Politico last week that he will not discuss Trump until Nov. 8, adding wistfully, “Wish me luck.” | John Cornyn of Texas, the Senate Majority whip, told Politico last week that he will not discuss Trump until Nov. 8, adding wistfully, “Wish me luck.” |
| For other officeholders, replies to questions about Trump have become steadily more contorted. On June 19, Paul Ryan, the House Speaker, told Chuck Todd on Meet The Press: | For other officeholders, replies to questions about Trump have become steadily more contorted. On June 19, Paul Ryan, the House Speaker, told Chuck Todd on Meet The Press: |
| As if that were not enough, Ryan continued down this path: | As if that were not enough, Ryan continued down this path: |
| Asked twice by CNN’s Wolf Blitzer on Wednesday night, “Do you trust Donald Trump,” Ryan equivocated: “Like I said, you know, it depends on the issue.” | Asked twice by CNN’s Wolf Blitzer on Wednesday night, “Do you trust Donald Trump,” Ryan equivocated: “Like I said, you know, it depends on the issue.” |
| The accompanying RealClearPolitics chart of trends over the last 30 days illustrates the downward trend in support for Trump — and thus the potential for broader setbacks on Election Day. The chart shows Trump going from a 1 point lead in late May to a 6 point deficit on June 19. | The accompanying RealClearPolitics chart of trends over the last 30 days illustrates the downward trend in support for Trump — and thus the potential for broader setbacks on Election Day. The chart shows Trump going from a 1 point lead in late May to a 6 point deficit on June 19. |
| Less publicized trends among key demographic groups are compounding Republican anxiety. Trump’s heaviest losses, according to survey data, are among those voters he most needs to remain competitive: whites and especially white men. | Less publicized trends among key demographic groups are compounding Republican anxiety. Trump’s heaviest losses, according to survey data, are among those voters he most needs to remain competitive: whites and especially white men. |
| When you compare polls taken between May 22 and 25 (the high point to date for Trump in matchups with Hillary Clinton) with polls published over the last week, you can see how much damage Trump has inflicted on himself. In matchups with Clinton, Trump has experienced double digit declines in support from men, from young voters, from all whites and from white college graduates in particular. | When you compare polls taken between May 22 and 25 (the high point to date for Trump in matchups with Hillary Clinton) with polls published over the last week, you can see how much damage Trump has inflicted on himself. In matchups with Clinton, Trump has experienced double digit declines in support from men, from young voters, from all whites and from white college graduates in particular. |
| Polls are also showing an increase in the percentage of Republicans who are indicating that they might sit out the 2016 election. The Reuters-Ipsos tracking poll measures how many voters refuse to say whether or how they will vote. Among Republicans, the percentage of these voters has risen since early May from 17.2 percent to 26.6 percent. Among Democrats, the percentage has remained relatively constant, fluctuating between 19 and 21 percent. | Polls are also showing an increase in the percentage of Republicans who are indicating that they might sit out the 2016 election. The Reuters-Ipsos tracking poll measures how many voters refuse to say whether or how they will vote. Among Republicans, the percentage of these voters has risen since early May from 17.2 percent to 26.6 percent. Among Democrats, the percentage has remained relatively constant, fluctuating between 19 and 21 percent. |
| There are other recent measures of Republican disaffection and Democratic enthusiasm. | There are other recent measures of Republican disaffection and Democratic enthusiasm. |
| A Marquette Law School survey of Wisconsin voters, published on June 15, shows that among Democrats an increasing number of people are committing to vote in November – from 80 percent in March to 84 percent in June – while the percentage of Republicans committed to voting fell from 87 percent to 78 percent over the same time period. | A Marquette Law School survey of Wisconsin voters, published on June 15, shows that among Democrats an increasing number of people are committing to vote in November – from 80 percent in March to 84 percent in June – while the percentage of Republicans committed to voting fell from 87 percent to 78 percent over the same time period. |
| Trump may well have contributed to declining excitement among Republican voters when, at a rally in Atlanta on June 15, he unleashed a frenzied attack on Republican leaders: | Trump may well have contributed to declining excitement among Republican voters when, at a rally in Atlanta on June 15, he unleashed a frenzied attack on Republican leaders: |
| Paul Ryan, asked to comment on Trump’s remarks, laughed incredulously and said, “You can’t make this up sometimes.” | Paul Ryan, asked to comment on Trump’s remarks, laughed incredulously and said, “You can’t make this up sometimes.” |
| As Trump becomes the indelible image of the Republican Party, the problems for Republican candidates seeking to distance themselves from him are only going to worsen. Trump’s imprint on the party will be cemented in the minds of many voters during the convention in Cleveland from July 18-21, which Trump intends to turn into a four-day spectacle focused on his persona — an entertainment extravaganza designed to hold millions of voters to their television (and other) screens. | As Trump becomes the indelible image of the Republican Party, the problems for Republican candidates seeking to distance themselves from him are only going to worsen. Trump’s imprint on the party will be cemented in the minds of many voters during the convention in Cleveland from July 18-21, which Trump intends to turn into a four-day spectacle focused on his persona — an entertainment extravaganza designed to hold millions of voters to their television (and other) screens. |
| If Trump’s poll numbers continue to slide, Clinton is positioned to damage his campaign before the general election is fully engaged. She has already begun an attempt to do so: Clinton and allied groups have so far spent $26 million on television ads, many of them featuring hard-nosed anti-Trump attacks, while Trump has aired no ads over the past month. | If Trump’s poll numbers continue to slide, Clinton is positioned to damage his campaign before the general election is fully engaged. She has already begun an attempt to do so: Clinton and allied groups have so far spent $26 million on television ads, many of them featuring hard-nosed anti-Trump attacks, while Trump has aired no ads over the past month. |
| Clinton now has a huge financial advantage over Trump, with $42 million in the bank at the end of May compared to Trump’s $1.8 million. | Clinton now has a huge financial advantage over Trump, with $42 million in the bank at the end of May compared to Trump’s $1.8 million. |
| A number of analyses confirm that Republicans are correct to worry that their Senate or even their House majority could be overturned. | A number of analyses confirm that Republicans are correct to worry that their Senate or even their House majority could be overturned. |
| As Charlie Cook wrote presciently on March 25, | As Charlie Cook wrote presciently on March 25, |
| In the House, Cook wrote, a | In the House, Cook wrote, a |
| “Throughout history, very popular presidential candidates have had ‘coattails,’ ” Elaine Kamarck of Brookings wrote in an essay on May 19, | “Throughout history, very popular presidential candidates have had ‘coattails,’ ” Elaine Kamarck of Brookings wrote in an essay on May 19, |
| For the Republican Party, which has achieved major gains in state and local elections across the country since the election of 2010, the stakes in the 2016 contest are exceptionally high. In addition to the House and Senate, the party now holds 32 governorships to the Democrats’ 18; has total control of 30 state legislatures; has split control in 8 others; and has gained a total of 913 state Senate and House seats since 2010. | For the Republican Party, which has achieved major gains in state and local elections across the country since the election of 2010, the stakes in the 2016 contest are exceptionally high. In addition to the House and Senate, the party now holds 32 governorships to the Democrats’ 18; has total control of 30 state legislatures; has split control in 8 others; and has gained a total of 913 state Senate and House seats since 2010. |
| This November, with Trump at the top of the ticket, 86 of the country’s 99 state legislative chambers will be up for grabs, along with 1,210 state senate seats (61.4 percent of the total), 4,710 state house seats (87 percent of the total), according to Ballotpedia, an online encyclopedia of American politics and elections. | This November, with Trump at the top of the ticket, 86 of the country’s 99 state legislative chambers will be up for grabs, along with 1,210 state senate seats (61.4 percent of the total), 4,710 state house seats (87 percent of the total), according to Ballotpedia, an online encyclopedia of American politics and elections. |
| Thomas Mann, also of Brookings, gave a sense of how Washington sees current Republican vulnerability when he wrote earlier this month that “Trump is arguably the most unlikely, unsuitable, and unpopular presidential nominee of a major party in American history.” | Thomas Mann, also of Brookings, gave a sense of how Washington sees current Republican vulnerability when he wrote earlier this month that “Trump is arguably the most unlikely, unsuitable, and unpopular presidential nominee of a major party in American history.” |
| Still, it would be premature to count Trump out — the contest is far from settled. On Wednesday, Trump gave a speech combining his populist message with an all-out assault on Clinton. Chris Cillizza, of The Washington Post, was impressed by the rhetoric if not the candidate: | |
| Trump has placed himself in a vulnerable position with a vivid display of his eccentricity, his excesses and his uncertain financial resources, all of which add up to a diminishing opportunity to turn things around. It’s still possible, however, that Trump — who has successfully tapped a reservoir of right-populist conviction — could yet prefigure the revival of a conservative movement, just as Senator Barry Goldwater kicked off a long Republican reign even as he went down to a landslide defeat in 1964. | Trump has placed himself in a vulnerable position with a vivid display of his eccentricity, his excesses and his uncertain financial resources, all of which add up to a diminishing opportunity to turn things around. It’s still possible, however, that Trump — who has successfully tapped a reservoir of right-populist conviction — could yet prefigure the revival of a conservative movement, just as Senator Barry Goldwater kicked off a long Republican reign even as he went down to a landslide defeat in 1964. |