This article is from the source 'independent' and was first published or seen on . It last changed over 40 days ago and won't be checked again for changes.
You can find the current article at its original source at http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/eu-referendum-poll-brexit-remain-vote-leave-live-latest-who-will-win-results-populus-a7097261.html
The article has changed 7 times. There is an RSS feed of changes available.
| Version 2 | Version 3 |
|---|---|
| EU referendum poll: Final Populus survey gives Remain 10-point lead over Brexit | |
| (35 minutes later) | |
| The final opinion poll ahead of today's EU referendum has given the Remain campaign a 10-point lead over Leave. | The final opinion poll ahead of today's EU referendum has given the Remain campaign a 10-point lead over Leave. |
| The Populus poll, carried out online and before voting opened, shows remain on 55 per cent and leave on 45. | The Populus poll, carried out online and before voting opened, shows remain on 55 per cent and leave on 45. |
| Those results are by far the strongest for Remain among the final polls. Almost all of the major polling organisations showed remain ahead, but many did so within the margin of error for political surveys. | Those results are by far the strongest for Remain among the final polls. Almost all of the major polling organisations showed remain ahead, but many did so within the margin of error for political surveys. |
| The scale of the lead has led some polling experts to say that a Remain result is now highly likely. A Leave result now would be a "far far bigger polling disaster" than the general election, when much of the polling industry was embarrassed by failing to predict the Conservative majority, said election analyst Mike Smithson. | The scale of the lead has led some polling experts to say that a Remain result is now highly likely. A Leave result now would be a "far far bigger polling disaster" than the general election, when much of the polling industry was embarrassed by failing to predict the Conservative majority, said election analyst Mike Smithson. |
| But some have suggested that the terrible weather – including rainstorms in the Remain stronghold of London – could keep turnout low and so help skew the results towards Leave. Some have also cast doubt on polling because more people than usual have suggested that they might switch sides before they arrive at the polling station. | But some have suggested that the terrible weather – including rainstorms in the Remain stronghold of London – could keep turnout low and so help skew the results towards Leave. Some have also cast doubt on polling because more people than usual have suggested that they might switch sides before they arrive at the polling station. |
| Unlike in the general election, there will be no exit poll because it wouldn't be possible to understand how accurate it will be. That means that this late-stage polling will be the final indication of how the vote may go, until results start coming in through the early morning. | Unlike in the general election, there will be no exit poll because it wouldn't be possible to understand how accurate it will be. That means that this late-stage polling will be the final indication of how the vote may go, until results start coming in through the early morning. |
| YouGov will however conduct a "re-contact survey" after the polls have closed, which is expected to give some indication of the result before the official counts are completed. | YouGov will however conduct a "re-contact survey" after the polls have closed, which is expected to give some indication of the result before the official counts are completed. |