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| Brexit decision day: a last-minute primer as voters cast ballots to leave EU or stay | |
| (35 minutes later) | |
| When the school buildings and church halls traditionally used as polling stations in Britain opened for business at 7am local time on Thursday and voters began arriving to register their verdicts in the referendum on whether the UK should remain part of the EU, first reports reflected the kind of differences this bitter campaign has accentuated. | When the school buildings and church halls traditionally used as polling stations in Britain opened for business at 7am local time on Thursday and voters began arriving to register their verdicts in the referendum on whether the UK should remain part of the EU, first reports reflected the kind of differences this bitter campaign has accentuated. |
| Amid ominous thunder claps and lightning, it rained heavily in London and the south-east. But parts of normally wetter northern England reported bright sunshine. Some enthusiasts in both camps reported a heavy early turnout, others a slow start. Variable turnout will matter more than usual since different ages, groups and regions are sharply divergent: young, educated and a city dweller means a likely Remain vote, and vice versa. | Amid ominous thunder claps and lightning, it rained heavily in London and the south-east. But parts of normally wetter northern England reported bright sunshine. Some enthusiasts in both camps reported a heavy early turnout, others a slow start. Variable turnout will matter more than usual since different ages, groups and regions are sharply divergent: young, educated and a city dweller means a likely Remain vote, and vice versa. |
| Polls stay open until 10pm local time (5pm ET) and, barring recounts in a very tight fight, the final result will be announced in Manchester, not London for a change, at breakfast time on Friday. The last-minute flutter of opinion polls suggested either side might just win narrowly (51 to 49 or 54 to 46 excluding the don’t knows), but there will be no official exit polls. Referendums don’t work that way. | Polls stay open until 10pm local time (5pm ET) and, barring recounts in a very tight fight, the final result will be announced in Manchester, not London for a change, at breakfast time on Friday. The last-minute flutter of opinion polls suggested either side might just win narrowly (51 to 49 or 54 to 46 excluding the don’t knows), but there will be no official exit polls. Referendums don’t work that way. |
| Most of Britain’s powerful press, some of it owned by rich men not residents for tax purposes, roared for Brexit. “Nailed: Four Big EU Lies,” thundered the Daily Mail over a series of transparently misleading claims. “Tensions mount in City” declared the sober Financial Times. | Most of Britain’s powerful press, some of it owned by rich men not residents for tax purposes, roared for Brexit. “Nailed: Four Big EU Lies,” thundered the Daily Mail over a series of transparently misleading claims. “Tensions mount in City” declared the sober Financial Times. |
| Saddest of all the day’s signs of mutual suspicion on Twitter were suggestions by some supporters of Brexit – the campaign to take Britain out of the 28-nation European Union – that supporters take a ballpoint pen to mark their cross. Using the traditional polling booth pencil (it still hangs on a traditional piece of string) might allow Prime Minister David Cameron to find some way of changing your vote from Leave to Remain, they were warned. | Saddest of all the day’s signs of mutual suspicion on Twitter were suggestions by some supporters of Brexit – the campaign to take Britain out of the 28-nation European Union – that supporters take a ballpoint pen to mark their cross. Using the traditional polling booth pencil (it still hangs on a traditional piece of string) might allow Prime Minister David Cameron to find some way of changing your vote from Leave to Remain, they were warned. |
| Who can vote? Like everything else in this messy affair (including the framing of the question on the ballot), that has been disputed. Forty-five million British plus – by longstanding agreement – Irish citizens living in Britain, along with resident Commonwealth citizens from 53 countries, mighty India to tiny Trinidad, can all take part. | Who can vote? Like everything else in this messy affair (including the framing of the question on the ballot), that has been disputed. Forty-five million British plus – by longstanding agreement – Irish citizens living in Britain, along with resident Commonwealth citizens from 53 countries, mighty India to tiny Trinidad, can all take part. |
| So can people from Gibraltar, the “Rock” which guards entrance to the Mediterranean, held by the British since 1713 and coveted since then by its EU Spanish neighbours. Would a win for Brexit threaten Gib’s status? In the closing hours of the campaign the foreign secretary, Philip Hammond, suggested it might and was duly chastised for scaremongering by his former cabinet colleague Liam Fox. The truth is no one knows for certain in assertive nationalistic times. | So can people from Gibraltar, the “Rock” which guards entrance to the Mediterranean, held by the British since 1713 and coveted since then by its EU Spanish neighbours. Would a win for Brexit threaten Gib’s status? In the closing hours of the campaign the foreign secretary, Philip Hammond, suggested it might and was duly chastised for scaremongering by his former cabinet colleague Liam Fox. The truth is no one knows for certain in assertive nationalistic times. |
| Some of the 1.2 million Brits who live elsewhere in Europe, often as pensioners in sunny Spanish beach resorts (309,000) or in idyllic French (189,000) and Irish (255,000) villages, will also be able to vote, provided they have been on the UK electoral roll in the past 15 years. Many (not all) are terrified about what a Brexit vote might do for their residency rights and healthcare access. | Some of the 1.2 million Brits who live elsewhere in Europe, often as pensioners in sunny Spanish beach resorts (309,000) or in idyllic French (189,000) and Irish (255,000) villages, will also be able to vote, provided they have been on the UK electoral roll in the past 15 years. Many (not all) are terrified about what a Brexit vote might do for their residency rights and healthcare access. |
| Some 3 million Europeans with similar fears about their continued rights in Britain, will not be able to vote unless they come from Commonwealth Malta or Cyprus – like Gib, both relics of British imperial naval power. Up to 300,000 entrepreneurial young French professionals live in London – the “sixth city of France” say some –and twitch too. The UK is (rightly) seen as an easier place to start and run a business or earn big bank bonuses. British restaurants have much improved, but (as Americans know) the French would be the last to admit it. They are not here for our food or rain. | Some 3 million Europeans with similar fears about their continued rights in Britain, will not be able to vote unless they come from Commonwealth Malta or Cyprus – like Gib, both relics of British imperial naval power. Up to 300,000 entrepreneurial young French professionals live in London – the “sixth city of France” say some –and twitch too. The UK is (rightly) seen as an easier place to start and run a business or earn big bank bonuses. British restaurants have much improved, but (as Americans know) the French would be the last to admit it. They are not here for our food or rain. |
| Fellow Europeans are unlikely to be deported or mistreated in either direction across the Channel. But unless a Brexit Britain retains the core EU commitment to the free movement of people (along with capital, goods and services) their status will become uncertain. Yet, if Leave campaigners win tonight, it is their vague but emphatic pledge to curb the flow of inward migration – a net 330,000 people last year, half from the EU – that will have delivered victory. | Fellow Europeans are unlikely to be deported or mistreated in either direction across the Channel. But unless a Brexit Britain retains the core EU commitment to the free movement of people (along with capital, goods and services) their status will become uncertain. Yet, if Leave campaigners win tonight, it is their vague but emphatic pledge to curb the flow of inward migration – a net 330,000 people last year, half from the EU – that will have delivered victory. |
| Whatever the eventual solution is – and Cameron has promised to seek a further review of the EU’s free movement rules if he wins – it will not be as easy as Brexit champions have promised voters. They do not need to be racists or xenophobes (plenty of them too) to worry about migrant numbers and the pressure on jobs and services. | Whatever the eventual solution is – and Cameron has promised to seek a further review of the EU’s free movement rules if he wins – it will not be as easy as Brexit champions have promised voters. They do not need to be racists or xenophobes (plenty of them too) to worry about migrant numbers and the pressure on jobs and services. |
| As with much else, the French have a valuable hostage: thousands of Syrian, Afghan and African refugees and migrants live in unruly camps at Calais hoping to smuggle their way though the Channel tunnel to Britain, whose jobs and welfare systems are less regulated. French taxpayers police the disorder – for now. | As with much else, the French have a valuable hostage: thousands of Syrian, Afghan and African refugees and migrants live in unruly camps at Calais hoping to smuggle their way though the Channel tunnel to Britain, whose jobs and welfare systems are less regulated. French taxpayers police the disorder – for now. |
| Overnight a visibly tired Cameron, backed by former prime ministers and other grandees, pleaded with voters to put “jobs and the economy first”. Brexit leader Michael Gove, also tired, withdrew his own “clumsy and inappropriate” comparison between anti-Brexit scientists and the Nazi stooges who denounced Einstein. | Overnight a visibly tired Cameron, backed by former prime ministers and other grandees, pleaded with voters to put “jobs and the economy first”. Brexit leader Michael Gove, also tired, withdrew his own “clumsy and inappropriate” comparison between anti-Brexit scientists and the Nazi stooges who denounced Einstein. |
| A former archbishop of Canterbury admitted the EU is “imperfect” but argued that if it did not exist we would have to invent it. Bankers and brokers in the City of London prepared to stay up all night and make money on the margins of the coming night’s seesaw of results. After a recovery in recent days, few dispute that a Brexit win will throw markets into turmoil around the world, at least for a while. Foreign currencies were being bought by holidaymakers and hedgers alike. Applications for Irish passports also rose. | A former archbishop of Canterbury admitted the EU is “imperfect” but argued that if it did not exist we would have to invent it. Bankers and brokers in the City of London prepared to stay up all night and make money on the margins of the coming night’s seesaw of results. After a recovery in recent days, few dispute that a Brexit win will throw markets into turmoil around the world, at least for a while. Foreign currencies were being bought by holidaymakers and hedgers alike. Applications for Irish passports also rose. |
| Most of the major players and most voters, all but zealots on either side, probably want it all to stop. But it won’t. If the result is as close as polls suggest – they are often wrong, as Britain’s pollsters were uniformly wrong at the last UK general election – it will immediately be contested by the losing side, especially if leave wins. Voters will be told their votes should have been cast with ballpoint pens. | Most of the major players and most voters, all but zealots on either side, probably want it all to stop. But it won’t. If the result is as close as polls suggest – they are often wrong, as Britain’s pollsters were uniformly wrong at the last UK general election – it will immediately be contested by the losing side, especially if leave wins. Voters will be told their votes should have been cast with ballpoint pens. |
| Two parallel dramas will then begin. EU leaders will meet in Brussels and give their initial reaction to the verdict. Sensible ones like Angela Merkel will be emollient whichever way it goes. But others will feel betrayed and express both anger and dismay. | Two parallel dramas will then begin. EU leaders will meet in Brussels and give their initial reaction to the verdict. Sensible ones like Angela Merkel will be emollient whichever way it goes. But others will feel betrayed and express both anger and dismay. |
| The shady tax haven of Luxembourg’s former prime minister, Jean-Claude Juncker, now EU commission president and the embodiment of what Brexiters most dislike in Brussels will give the first reply. “ Out is out,” he said yesterday. Emollient, Juncker is not. | The shady tax haven of Luxembourg’s former prime minister, Jean-Claude Juncker, now EU commission president and the embodiment of what Brexiters most dislike in Brussels will give the first reply. “ Out is out,” he said yesterday. Emollient, Juncker is not. |
| But nor are all of Cameron’s Conservative MPs in parliament keen to bind up the wounds. Overall 478 of Westminster’s 650 MPs in all parties are for Remain, just 159 for Brexit. But disaffected voters despise such “elites” as much as Tea Party Republican and Trumpites do. Tea Party Tories have got the same religion. Win or lose, they will seek to dethrone the prime minister. No long weekend sleep for Cameron. | But nor are all of Cameron’s Conservative MPs in parliament keen to bind up the wounds. Overall 478 of Westminster’s 650 MPs in all parties are for Remain, just 159 for Brexit. But disaffected voters despise such “elites” as much as Tea Party Republican and Trumpites do. Tea Party Tories have got the same religion. Win or lose, they will seek to dethrone the prime minister. No long weekend sleep for Cameron. |
| Michael White is a former political editor and Washington correspondent of the Guardian | Michael White is a former political editor and Washington correspondent of the Guardian |