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You can find the current article at its original source at https://www.theguardian.com/politics/yougov-polling-blog/2016/jun/23/last-minute-polling-data-on-eu-referendum
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| Last-minute EU referendum polls put remain support ahead | Last-minute EU referendum polls put remain support ahead |
| (2 months later) | |
| Support for the remain camp in the EU referendum showed a lead in four polls conducted shortly before voting day, giving hope to the in campaign of a swing to the status quo. | Support for the remain camp in the EU referendum showed a lead in four polls conducted shortly before voting day, giving hope to the in campaign of a swing to the status quo. |
| As people braved squally weather and flooding to cast their ballots in the EU referendum, several polling companies released data collected over a couple of days before the voting started. | As people braved squally weather and flooding to cast their ballots in the EU referendum, several polling companies released data collected over a couple of days before the voting started. |
| The most recent poll was from Populus, which put remain ahead by 10 points at 55%, against 45% for leaving the EU. The online survey was carried out from a sample of 4,700 people from Tuesday to midnight on Wednesday. | The most recent poll was from Populus, which put remain ahead by 10 points at 55%, against 45% for leaving the EU. The online survey was carried out from a sample of 4,700 people from Tuesday to midnight on Wednesday. |
| Another poll, by Ipsos Mori, for the Evening Standard gave remain a four-point lead at 52%, against 48%. Other polls, by ComRes and YouGov, also showed narrow leads for Britain staying in the EU. TNS and Opinium still put the leave camp slightly ahead. | Another poll, by Ipsos Mori, for the Evening Standard gave remain a four-point lead at 52%, against 48%. Other polls, by ComRes and YouGov, also showed narrow leads for Britain staying in the EU. TNS and Opinium still put the leave camp slightly ahead. |
| The pound rose to a 2016 high against the dollar before falling back slightly and the FTSE 100 index of shares also rose as traders betted on a vote to remain. | The pound rose to a 2016 high against the dollar before falling back slightly and the FTSE 100 index of shares also rose as traders betted on a vote to remain. |
| Remain led in the early months of the campaign but last month the Brexit camp rallied and appeared to overtake their rivals. In the last week the two campaigns have been neck and neck, with online polls tending to favour leave and phone polls tending to give the edge to remain. | Remain led in the early months of the campaign but last month the Brexit camp rallied and appeared to overtake their rivals. In the last week the two campaigns have been neck and neck, with online polls tending to favour leave and phone polls tending to give the edge to remain. |
| Although the polls failed to predict the general election majority for the Conservatives last year, they are still being closely watched for any movement in the national opinion. | Although the polls failed to predict the general election majority for the Conservatives last year, they are still being closely watched for any movement in the national opinion. |
| For the referendum there will be no exit poll at 10pm – because there is no comparative historical data upon which to make a judgment. However, YouGov will be contacting people it surveyed in its final poll before voting day to see if there are any last-minute changes. It will announce the results on Sky News just after 10pm. | For the referendum there will be no exit poll at 10pm – because there is no comparative historical data upon which to make a judgment. However, YouGov will be contacting people it surveyed in its final poll before voting day to see if there are any last-minute changes. It will announce the results on Sky News just after 10pm. |
| There have been strong rumours circulating within the polling industry and the City that hedge funds and other investors have commissioned their own private polling. This is legal as long as the results are not published. | There have been strong rumours circulating within the polling industry and the City that hedge funds and other investors have commissioned their own private polling. This is legal as long as the results are not published. |