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| EU referendum poll on a knife-edge as votes counted | |
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| Britain’s referendum on EU membership was on a knife-edge after a much larger than expected win for leave in the Labour stronghold of Sunderland suggested that the result would be extremely close. | |
| The result, in which there was a 61.3% vote for leave against 38.7% for remain, was quickly followed by a plunge in the value of the pound on international markets. | |
| The Sunderland result followed a win for remain in Newcastle although the 54% to 46% split was not as large a victory as had been forecast given the city’s demography, which includes large numbers of students. | |
| The Ukip leader, Nigel Farage, had said earlier that it “looks like remain will edge it” after a poll published shortly after the conclusion of voting at 10pm suggested that remain would narrowly win. | |
| Related: EU referendum results – live tracker | Related: EU referendum results – live tracker |
| YouGov polled almost 5,000 people on Wednesday and found that the remain camp was just in front at 51%. Returning to the same people on the day of the vote, the number edged up to 52%. | YouGov polled almost 5,000 people on Wednesday and found that the remain camp was just in front at 51%. Returning to the same people on the day of the vote, the number edged up to 52%. |
| Joe Twyman, the head of political and social research at the polling company, said: “Based on the move that we’ve seen today, and on the trends that we’ve seen in our data and on historical precedents, we expect the United Kingdom to remain in the EU but it is too early to know for definite.” | Joe Twyman, the head of political and social research at the polling company, said: “Based on the move that we’ve seen today, and on the trends that we’ve seen in our data and on historical precedents, we expect the United Kingdom to remain in the EU but it is too early to know for definite.” |
| Farage, who had said earlier that he thought Britain had voted to stay in the EU based on “what I know from some of my friends in the financial markets who have done some big polling,” later said that it would be “very tight.” | |
| Following the Sunderland result, there was another jolt for remain when leave won in Swindon – a ”swing” town of middle England – with a 54.7% vote. | |
| Among leading remain figures, the Labour MP Chuka Umunna said earlier he was “quietly confident” of a victory. However, he later said: “It could go either way. If you were to force me to call it I would say that remain could just get it but it could go the other way.” | |
| “We are a divided country that is the big conclusion you can draw from this EU referendum campaign.” | |
| Investors had earlier welcomed initial indications of a strong remain vote, sending the pound above $1.50 at one point – its highest level since December. The FTSE 100 index of Britain’s largest listed companies is also forecast to open strongly on Friday. However, one currency broker warned of a “biblical” market collapse on Friday morning if the latest polls were proved wrong. | |
| One source from the leave campaign said: “Nigel Farage is probably right, 55-45 remain on the cards. But that means about as many will have voted for Brexit as voted for every government since the war.” But another source from the official Vote Leave group said the Ukip leader had been “unhelpful” throughout the final week, including when he unveiled a controversial poster of fleeing refugees under the words “breaking point”. | One source from the leave campaign said: “Nigel Farage is probably right, 55-45 remain on the cards. But that means about as many will have voted for Brexit as voted for every government since the war.” But another source from the official Vote Leave group said the Ukip leader had been “unhelpful” throughout the final week, including when he unveiled a controversial poster of fleeing refugees under the words “breaking point”. |
| The comments came as 84 Conservative MPs who have campaigned for out, including Boris Johnson, Michael Gove, Chris Grayling and Priti Patel, wrote to the prime minister to thank him for offering them the referendum and calling on him to stay in position whatever the outcome. | The comments came as 84 Conservative MPs who have campaigned for out, including Boris Johnson, Michael Gove, Chris Grayling and Priti Patel, wrote to the prime minister to thank him for offering them the referendum and calling on him to stay in position whatever the outcome. |
| The letter, organised by Robert Syms and delivered to Cameron’s parliamentary private secretary, Gavin Williamson, said they felt he had a “mandate and a duty to continue leading the nation implementing our 2015 manifesto”. The move could anger a handful of die-hard Eurosceptics who want the prime minister gone. | The letter, organised by Robert Syms and delivered to Cameron’s parliamentary private secretary, Gavin Williamson, said they felt he had a “mandate and a duty to continue leading the nation implementing our 2015 manifesto”. The move could anger a handful of die-hard Eurosceptics who want the prime minister gone. |
| But Chris Grayling, one of the cabinet ministers who has been campaigning for out, told the Guardian: “Regardless of the result of the referendum, the Conservative party has to get behind David Cameron and unite. We have a big job to do in the country, it is only 15 months since we won our first majority since 1992.” | But Chris Grayling, one of the cabinet ministers who has been campaigning for out, told the Guardian: “Regardless of the result of the referendum, the Conservative party has to get behind David Cameron and unite. We have a big job to do in the country, it is only 15 months since we won our first majority since 1992.” |
| His cabinet colleague, the Northern Ireland secretary, Theresa Villiers, who is also a leave campaigner and another signatory of the letter, said her instinct was that remain had won. She said: “I would put it down to ‘project fear’ succeeding”. | His cabinet colleague, the Northern Ireland secretary, Theresa Villiers, who is also a leave campaigner and another signatory of the letter, said her instinct was that remain had won. She said: “I would put it down to ‘project fear’ succeeding”. |
| A record 46.5 million voters across the UK and Gibraltar were registered to vote in the historic referendum, with early indications suggesting a high turnout in areas with strong support for remain and those where Brexit is more popular. | A record 46.5 million voters across the UK and Gibraltar were registered to vote in the historic referendum, with early indications suggesting a high turnout in areas with strong support for remain and those where Brexit is more popular. |
| Overall, remain campaigners sounded the more confident during the day, with Labour MPs engaged in a get-out-the-vote operation reporting a more positive mood on the doorsteps than in recent weeks. Some said they had met people who had already voted leave by post and regretted their decision, although Downing Street insiders urged caution. | Overall, remain campaigners sounded the more confident during the day, with Labour MPs engaged in a get-out-the-vote operation reporting a more positive mood on the doorsteps than in recent weeks. Some said they had met people who had already voted leave by post and regretted their decision, although Downing Street insiders urged caution. |
| Voters in London complained on social media that they might miss out on the opportunity to vote after severe weather conditions in southern England caused chaos across the transport system. | Voters in London complained on social media that they might miss out on the opportunity to vote after severe weather conditions in southern England caused chaos across the transport system. |
| Both Cameron and Jeremy Corbyn were preparing to reach out on Friday to the millions of British people who voted to leave the EU, as they seek to heal the wounds of a bitterly fought referendum that has divided the nation. | Both Cameron and Jeremy Corbyn were preparing to reach out on Friday to the millions of British people who voted to leave the EU, as they seek to heal the wounds of a bitterly fought referendum that has divided the nation. |
| Related: The polls say remain. This time, can we trust them? | Tom Clark | Related: The polls say remain. This time, can we trust them? | Tom Clark |
| Labour’s deputy leader, Tom Watson, said the prime minister’s first job should be to confront the anxieties of voters who backed Brexit, however Britain votes. “Whatever the outcome, it seems to me that the country is more divided at the end of this process than at the beginning, and it’s beholden on political leaders to listen to voters, and respond to the concerns they’ve raised. Labour will be doing that, and we very much hope that the prime minister will do that too.” | Labour’s deputy leader, Tom Watson, said the prime minister’s first job should be to confront the anxieties of voters who backed Brexit, however Britain votes. “Whatever the outcome, it seems to me that the country is more divided at the end of this process than at the beginning, and it’s beholden on political leaders to listen to voters, and respond to the concerns they’ve raised. Labour will be doing that, and we very much hope that the prime minister will do that too.” |
| The Conservative leader will deliver a speech on Friday morning that will attempt to reach out across the divide and reassure the millions of individuals who voted against him that his government has listened to their concerns over immigration, public services and democracy. | The Conservative leader will deliver a speech on Friday morning that will attempt to reach out across the divide and reassure the millions of individuals who voted against him that his government has listened to their concerns over immigration, public services and democracy. |
| The prime minister, who had dinner with his family and planned to spend the night in Downing Street with close advisers, is hoping to hail a remain result, before making a pledge to rebuild alliances with Conservative grassroots and the dozens of MPs who campaigned against him. | The prime minister, who had dinner with his family and planned to spend the night in Downing Street with close advisers, is hoping to hail a remain result, before making a pledge to rebuild alliances with Conservative grassroots and the dozens of MPs who campaigned against him. |
| He will also promise to take his mandate back to Europe and insist that British voters want further reform. | He will also promise to take his mandate back to Europe and insist that British voters want further reform. |
| In the case of Brexit, there will be calls by out campaigners for the prime minister to remain in position, as he has suggested he will, in order to secure stability as negotiations for a EU exit are opened. | In the case of Brexit, there will be calls by out campaigners for the prime minister to remain in position, as he has suggested he will, in order to secure stability as negotiations for a EU exit are opened. |
| Labour will also unveil a charm offensive to win back Brexit-supporting voters in the party’s working-class heartlands after the electoral battle also exposed widespread frustration about immigration as well as jobs and living standards. | Labour will also unveil a charm offensive to win back Brexit-supporting voters in the party’s working-class heartlands after the electoral battle also exposed widespread frustration about immigration as well as jobs and living standards. |
| If the result is a vote to remain, then Corbyn, who will gather his shadow cabinet for an emergency meeting at 10am on Friday, will insist Labour was critical in winning the campaign – a strategy one insider described as “badging success” – and blame Cameron for a failure of leadership in allowing the referendum to be fought on such bitter terms. | If the result is a vote to remain, then Corbyn, who will gather his shadow cabinet for an emergency meeting at 10am on Friday, will insist Labour was critical in winning the campaign – a strategy one insider described as “badging success” – and blame Cameron for a failure of leadership in allowing the referendum to be fought on such bitter terms. |
| If Britain has voted leave, Corbyn is likely to face recriminations from across the Labour movement. including MPs. amid claims that the lifelong Eurosceptic has run a half-hearted campaign. | If Britain has voted leave, Corbyn is likely to face recriminations from across the Labour movement. including MPs. amid claims that the lifelong Eurosceptic has run a half-hearted campaign. |
| One senior source in the party warned that Labour risked being badly hit by a backlash following an election that laid bare the divisions between the party’s liberal, metropolitan supporters and working-class voters across the north. | One senior source in the party warned that Labour risked being badly hit by a backlash following an election that laid bare the divisions between the party’s liberal, metropolitan supporters and working-class voters across the north. |
| “This campaign has shown us that concerns about migration run very deep and Labour has to show that it has really listened and understood the sources of people’s frustration,” he said, arguing that much of the party was looking for a significant intervention from Corbyn on Friday morning. | “This campaign has shown us that concerns about migration run very deep and Labour has to show that it has really listened and understood the sources of people’s frustration,” he said, arguing that much of the party was looking for a significant intervention from Corbyn on Friday morning. |
| The Labour leader plans to tour the party’s traditional working-class seats over the summer, making the case for policies to soften the impact of immigration on low-paid workers – including banning zero-hours contracts and cracking down on unscrupulous employers. | The Labour leader plans to tour the party’s traditional working-class seats over the summer, making the case for policies to soften the impact of immigration on low-paid workers – including banning zero-hours contracts and cracking down on unscrupulous employers. |
| Shadow ministers from outside London, including Lisa Nandy, Lucy Powell and Jon Trickett, are also expected to be given a more prominent public role in reaching out to disillusioned Labour supporters. | Shadow ministers from outside London, including Lisa Nandy, Lucy Powell and Jon Trickett, are also expected to be given a more prominent public role in reaching out to disillusioned Labour supporters. |
| Related: 10 things we’ve learned from the EU referendum campaign | Deborah Orr | Related: 10 things we’ve learned from the EU referendum campaign | Deborah Orr |
| Corbyn knows he will have to fight off attempts by the prime minister to turn Conservative fire from internal spats to a concerted attack on the opposition with a string of domestic policies being unveiled in the coming days and weeks. | Corbyn knows he will have to fight off attempts by the prime minister to turn Conservative fire from internal spats to a concerted attack on the opposition with a string of domestic policies being unveiled in the coming days and weeks. |
| The Conservatives hope that plans to unveil the Human Rights Act with a British bill of rights, and calling a vote to confirm the renewal of Britain’s Trident nuclear deterrent will expose divisions in the Labour party. | The Conservatives hope that plans to unveil the Human Rights Act with a British bill of rights, and calling a vote to confirm the renewal of Britain’s Trident nuclear deterrent will expose divisions in the Labour party. |
| Another priority for the prime minister will also be his life chances strategy, a cross-government agenda to improve the lives of the most disadvantaged from the early years, through school and into the workplace. Cameron hopes to use the agenda to secure a legacy that is not all about Europe. | Another priority for the prime minister will also be his life chances strategy, a cross-government agenda to improve the lives of the most disadvantaged from the early years, through school and into the workplace. Cameron hopes to use the agenda to secure a legacy that is not all about Europe. |
| However, he knows that a vote for Brexit will be the defining point of his premiership and speed up his departure from Downing street. | However, he knows that a vote for Brexit will be the defining point of his premiership and speed up his departure from Downing street. |
| Deborah Mattinson, founding director of Britain Thinks, said the battle showed how divided Britain was becoming. “The referendum campaign has highlighted the deepening divide in Britain today. Remain leaners are younger, educated, and more affluent; leave leaners are older, less well off and less likely to have formal qualifications,” she said. | Deborah Mattinson, founding director of Britain Thinks, said the battle showed how divided Britain was becoming. “The referendum campaign has highlighted the deepening divide in Britain today. Remain leaners are younger, educated, and more affluent; leave leaners are older, less well off and less likely to have formal qualifications,” she said. |
| “But the greater difference is in their attitudes – each group views the other with suspicion, even contempt. Whatever the outcome tonight, the challenge will be how to heal our fractured nation.” | “But the greater difference is in their attitudes – each group views the other with suspicion, even contempt. Whatever the outcome tonight, the challenge will be how to heal our fractured nation.” |
| Both camps fought bitterly until the polls closed, with emails in the final hours sent by leading campaigners, including Boris Johnson. The message, designed to look personal with “sent from my iPhone” at the end of the message, told voters: “Don’t lose this chance to make today our Independence Day!!!” | Both camps fought bitterly until the polls closed, with emails in the final hours sent by leading campaigners, including Boris Johnson. The message, designed to look personal with “sent from my iPhone” at the end of the message, told voters: “Don’t lose this chance to make today our Independence Day!!!” |
| One Londoner tweeted a picture of the Tory MP on the underground, claiming that Johnson had asked him how he voted, before conceding that his side was likely to lose the election. | One Londoner tweeted a picture of the Tory MP on the underground, claiming that Johnson had asked him how he voted, before conceding that his side was likely to lose the election. |