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EU Referendum: How to find out if Brexit or Remain is winning as the results are announced | EU Referendum: How to find out if Brexit or Remain is winning as the results are announced |
(about 1 hour later) | |
UPDATE: After results from the first 137 districts (out of 382) - 40 per cent of the UK - we now have a strong indication that the UK will leave the EU. | |
104 of the 137 results have been more favourable for Brexit than expected if the country was on course for a 50:50 tie. | |
The average extra vote for Leave has been 5.3 per cent across these first 137 districts. | |
One top psephologist now thinks Remain's chances of winning are essentially zero. | |
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You don't need to wait for broadcasters to call tonight's referendum – here's your cheatsheet. | You don't need to wait for broadcasters to call tonight's referendum – here's your cheatsheet. |
Voting for the EU Referendum is made up of 382 individual contests across the UK (that includes the Isles of Scilly and Gibraltar). | Voting for the EU Referendum is made up of 382 individual contests across the UK (that includes the Isles of Scilly and Gibraltar). |
These 382 districts will report the results in the local area as soon as they count them, and we have a good idea of when each district will report. | These 382 districts will report the results in the local area as soon as they count them, and we have a good idea of when each district will report. |
The first results, in Newcastle and Sunderland, are expected tonight at around 12.30am. | The first results, in Newcastle and Sunderland, are expected tonight at around 12.30am. |
They will be followed by the City of London at 12.45am, with Swindon, Oldham and Darlington reporting around then or closer to 1am. | They will be followed by the City of London at 12.45am, with Swindon, Oldham and Darlington reporting around then or closer to 1am. |
Seven other districts are due at 01.30am, with around two dozen due at 2am. The deluge begins at 3am and the result should be known by 5am. | Seven other districts are due at 01.30am, with around two dozen due at 2am. The deluge begins at 3am and the result should be known by 5am. |
As every result comes out, you can get a sense of what's happening by comparing the actual result in every contest with the predictions in the list below. | As every result comes out, you can get a sense of what's happening by comparing the actual result in every contest with the predictions in the list below. |
These predictions are based on a 50:50 overall result. | These predictions are based on a 50:50 overall result. |
In other words, a six-point lead for Leave in Sunderland is what these predictions suggest would happen if the race is a tie overall. | In other words, a six-point lead for Leave in Sunderland is what these predictions suggest would happen if the race is a tie overall. |
So if Remain win in Sunderland, that could be an indication of a strong night for them. While if Leave win by huge margins, perhaps they will win big tonight. | So if Remain win in Sunderland, that could be an indication of a strong night for them. While if Leave win by huge margins, perhaps they will win big tonight. |
The 24 most important results to watch are in bold below – these will tell us who is most likely to win nationally. | The 24 most important results to watch are in bold below – these will tell us who is most likely to win nationally. |
But each estimate is probabilistic, which means they really say “90 times out of 100, anything from a 1-point win for Remain to a 13-point win for Brexit in Sunderland is consistent with a 50:50 overall vote.” | But each estimate is probabilistic, which means they really say “90 times out of 100, anything from a 1-point win for Remain to a 13-point win for Brexit in Sunderland is consistent with a 50:50 overall vote.” |
Nevertheless, if tonight's results differ significantly in many seats all in one direction - significantly more for Leave or for Remain - that will be a very good indication of who's won. | Nevertheless, if tonight's results differ significantly in many seats all in one direction - significantly more for Leave or for Remain - that will be a very good indication of who's won. |
We've highlighted the first few contests and the two dozen that are set to come closest to a tie. Keep your eye on these in particular. | We've highlighted the first few contests and the two dozen that are set to come closest to a tie. Keep your eye on these in particular. |