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EU Referendum: How to find out if Brexit or Remain is winning as the results are announced EU Referendum: How to find out if Brexit or Remain is winning as the results are announced
(about 1 hour later)
UPDATE: After results from the first 137 districts (out of 382) - 40 per cent of the UK - we now have a strong indication that the UK will leave the EU. 
104 of the 137 results have been more favourable for Brexit than expected if the country was on course for a 50:50 tie.
The average extra vote for Leave has been 5.3 per cent across these first 137 districts.
One top psephologist now thinks Remain's chances of winning are essentially zero.
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You don't need to wait for broadcasters to call tonight's referendum – here's your cheatsheet.You don't need to wait for broadcasters to call tonight's referendum – here's your cheatsheet.
Voting for the EU Referendum is made up of 382 individual contests across the UK (that includes the Isles of Scilly and Gibraltar).Voting for the EU Referendum is made up of 382 individual contests across the UK (that includes the Isles of Scilly and Gibraltar).
These 382 districts will report the results in the local area as soon as they count them, and we have a good idea of when each district will report.These 382 districts will report the results in the local area as soon as they count them, and we have a good idea of when each district will report.
The first results, in Newcastle and Sunderland, are expected tonight at around 12.30am.The first results, in Newcastle and Sunderland, are expected tonight at around 12.30am.
They will be followed by the City of London at 12.45am, with Swindon, Oldham and Darlington reporting around then or closer to 1am.They will be followed by the City of London at 12.45am, with Swindon, Oldham and Darlington reporting around then or closer to 1am.
Seven other districts are due at 01.30am, with around two dozen due at 2am. The deluge begins at 3am and the result should be known by 5am.Seven other districts are due at 01.30am, with around two dozen due at 2am. The deluge begins at 3am and the result should be known by 5am.
As every result comes out, you can get a sense of what's happening by comparing the actual result in every contest with the predictions in the list below.As every result comes out, you can get a sense of what's happening by comparing the actual result in every contest with the predictions in the list below.
These predictions are based on a 50:50 overall result.These predictions are based on a 50:50 overall result.
In other words, a six-point lead for Leave in Sunderland is what these predictions suggest would happen if the race is a tie overall.In other words, a six-point lead for Leave in Sunderland is what these predictions suggest would happen if the race is a tie overall.
So if Remain win in Sunderland, that could be an indication of a strong night for them. While if Leave win by huge margins, perhaps they will win big tonight. So if Remain win in Sunderland, that could be an indication of a strong night for them. While if Leave win by huge margins, perhaps they will win big tonight. 
The 24 most important results to watch are in bold below – these will tell us who is most likely to win nationally.The 24 most important results to watch are in bold below – these will tell us who is most likely to win nationally.
But each estimate is probabilistic, which means they really say “90 times out of 100, anything from a 1-point win for Remain to a 13-point win for Brexit in Sunderland is consistent with a 50:50 overall vote.”But each estimate is probabilistic, which means they really say “90 times out of 100, anything from a 1-point win for Remain to a 13-point win for Brexit in Sunderland is consistent with a 50:50 overall vote.”
Nevertheless, if tonight's results differ significantly in many seats all in one direction - significantly more for Leave or for Remain - that will be a very good indication of who's won.Nevertheless, if tonight's results differ significantly in many seats all in one direction - significantly more for Leave or for Remain - that will be a very good indication of who's won.
We've highlighted the first few contests and the two dozen that are set to come closest to a tie. Keep your eye on these in particular.We've highlighted the first few contests and the two dozen that are set to come closest to a tie. Keep your eye on these in particular.