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The post-Brexit landscape: who can keep it all from falling apart? UK referendum: who can keep the post-Brexit landscape from falling apart?
(about 2 hours later)
With its usual talent for misplaced optimism the stock market had decided in the early hours of Friday morning that its complacent bet on a Remain vote was coming good. When the Leave camp’s majority for a British withdrawal from the European Union (EU) later became unmistakable London markets fell by £200bn and sterling suffered its worst drop for 30 years.With its usual talent for misplaced optimism the stock market had decided in the early hours of Friday morning that its complacent bet on a Remain vote was coming good. When the Leave camp’s majority for a British withdrawal from the European Union (EU) later became unmistakable London markets fell by £200bn and sterling suffered its worst drop for 30 years.
It may all calm down as level-headed self-interest reasserts itself over impassioned hearts. But many forces, most of them beyond British voters’ parochial concerns or politicians’ control, are at now work. In Berlin and Brussels, Paris and far beyond, not all are benign.It may all calm down as level-headed self-interest reasserts itself over impassioned hearts. But many forces, most of them beyond British voters’ parochial concerns or politicians’ control, are at now work. In Berlin and Brussels, Paris and far beyond, not all are benign.
Will Thursday’s result – by 17.4m votes to 16.1m – lead to the break-up of the 309-year-old United Kingdom? Quite possibly. Will the EU break up too? Don’t rule it out after such a solid brick as Britain has been removed from its tottering wall. Nato in an era of renewed US isolationism and Washington’s “pivot to Asia”? Who can say? Britain was usually Washington’s best line into Europe.Will Thursday’s result – by 17.4m votes to 16.1m – lead to the break-up of the 309-year-old United Kingdom? Quite possibly. Will the EU break up too? Don’t rule it out after such a solid brick as Britain has been removed from its tottering wall. Nato in an era of renewed US isolationism and Washington’s “pivot to Asia”? Who can say? Britain was usually Washington’s best line into Europe.
Within an hour of the official verdict at 7.22am (2.22am ET), prime minister David Cameron, who so badly misjudged his gamble on a winning a binary In/Out referendum, disabused wishful thinkers about one of the many fresh uncertainties.Within an hour of the official verdict at 7.22am (2.22am ET), prime minister David Cameron, who so badly misjudged his gamble on a winning a binary In/Out referendum, disabused wishful thinkers about one of the many fresh uncertainties.
Defying the appeals of friends and of cabinet colleagues who had campaigned so lethally against him, Cameron – PM since 2010 – announced his resignation. Though he was graceful in defeat, the message was clear: someone else would have to sort out the mess. There was no rush of volunteers. Conservatives know that deep tribal divisions over Europe helped destroy their last two prime ministers, John Major and Margaret Thatcher.Defying the appeals of friends and of cabinet colleagues who had campaigned so lethally against him, Cameron – PM since 2010 – announced his resignation. Though he was graceful in defeat, the message was clear: someone else would have to sort out the mess. There was no rush of volunteers. Conservatives know that deep tribal divisions over Europe helped destroy their last two prime ministers, John Major and Margaret Thatcher.
A leadership vacuum is now a real possibility at a moment of peril when (said Cameron) “determined and committed leadership” is needed. If the opposition Labour party had a more persuasive leadership, calls for an early general election in mid October would signal an opportunity. But opposition leader Jeremy Corbyn, Britain’s mild-mannered Bernie Sanders, struck an ambiguous note in half-heartedly urging a Remain vote after a career saying just the opposite. The Labour heartland vote took little notice. To add to Capitol Hill-style disorder at Westminster a challenge to Corbyn’s own leadership was also launched on Friday by dissident Labour MPs. A leadership vacuum is now a real possibility at a moment of peril when (said Cameron) “determined and committed leadership” is needed. If the opposition Labour party had a more persuasive leadership, calls for an early general election in mid-October would signal an opportunity. But opposition leader Jeremy Corbyn, Britain’s mild-mannered Bernie Sanders, struck an ambiguous note in half-heartedly urging a Remain vote after a career saying just the opposite. The Labour heartland vote took little notice. To add to Capitol Hill-style disorder at Westminster a challenge to Corbyn’s own leadership was also launched on Friday by dissident Labour MPs.
Voter fatigue is evident. But the distraction of a divisive Conservative leadership contest between now and early October is unavoidable, adding to the complexity of unraveling a 43-year-old relationship with the EU which – in a famous judicial phrase – has flowed up “all the estuaries and rivers” of the English legal system, its trade, financial and immigration rivers too.Voter fatigue is evident. But the distraction of a divisive Conservative leadership contest between now and early October is unavoidable, adding to the complexity of unraveling a 43-year-old relationship with the EU which – in a famous judicial phrase – has flowed up “all the estuaries and rivers” of the English legal system, its trade, financial and immigration rivers too.
There is no master plan in London, Berlin or Brussels on how best to proceed with minimum acrimony or damage to either side at a time when European weakness – economic, political, even military – is painfully apparent. How could there be such a plan when the EU’s exhausted and mostly mediocre leadership has been preoccupied with prolonged economic recession since 2008, with the eurozone crisis and waves of desperate refugees and migrants from the south and east?There is no master plan in London, Berlin or Brussels on how best to proceed with minimum acrimony or damage to either side at a time when European weakness – economic, political, even military – is painfully apparent. How could there be such a plan when the EU’s exhausted and mostly mediocre leadership has been preoccupied with prolonged economic recession since 2008, with the eurozone crisis and waves of desperate refugees and migrants from the south and east?
In the present bitter mood – so reminiscent of Middle America’s – plenty of angry people will relish a cathartic bout of nationalistic self-assertion. From the South China Sea to the Crimea, self-assertion is now the fashion, not the painstaking cooperation of the flawed but prosperous post-1945 era. Britain’s vote was also a blue collar constituency win for Donald Trump, who flew in to count his Scottish golf courses overnight. The British “have taken their independence back”, he said on Friday. In the present bitter mood – so reminiscent of Middle America’s – plenty of angry people will relish a cathartic bout of nationalistic self-assertion. From the South China Sea to the Crimea, self-assertion is now the fashion, not the painstaking cooperation of the flawed but prosperous post-1945 era. Britain’s vote was also a blue-collar constituency win for Donald Trump, who flew in to count his Scottish golf courses overnight. The British “have taken their independence back”, he said on Friday.
Who will lead Britain into this uncharted territory? Bookmakers back Brexit leader and former London mayor Boris Johnson, the elitist populist who commands a mixture of public affection and deep mistrust: clever but careless, a spinner of words but not of detail. That outcome is likely but uncertain too. Watch out for home secretary Theresa May, quietly positioning herself as a second Thatcher. In his subdued victory speech Johnson made no mention of his leadership ambitions and sought to reassure young, educated voters – overwhelmingly for Remain – that Britain will not be pulling up the drawbridge.Who will lead Britain into this uncharted territory? Bookmakers back Brexit leader and former London mayor Boris Johnson, the elitist populist who commands a mixture of public affection and deep mistrust: clever but careless, a spinner of words but not of detail. That outcome is likely but uncertain too. Watch out for home secretary Theresa May, quietly positioning herself as a second Thatcher. In his subdued victory speech Johnson made no mention of his leadership ambitions and sought to reassure young, educated voters – overwhelmingly for Remain – that Britain will not be pulling up the drawbridge.
In a country split down the middle (52% to 48% on a 72% turnout) it quickly became clear that this was primarily a victory for latent English nationalism. This was a vote to register resentment among older, poorer and less educated voters outside the mega-city of London, against the malign side effects of globalization that have hurt them. Down with experts and elites too. Don’t they always get it wrong? In a country split down the middle (52% to 48% on a 72% turnout) it quickly became clear that this was primarily a victory for latent English nationalism. This was a vote to register resentment among older, poorer and less-educated voters outside the mega-city of London, against the malign side effects of globalization that have hurt them. Down with experts and elites too. Don’t they always get it wrong?
In the UK the “Peasants’ Revolt” has been accentuated by decades of reasserted Celtic regional nationalism in post-imperial Britain, especially so in Scotland which has had its own “devolved” parliament since 1999. Since Scotland and (narrowly) Northern Ireland voted to stay in the EU, the only regions apart from London to do so, their link to England is now open to renewed challenge.In the UK the “Peasants’ Revolt” has been accentuated by decades of reasserted Celtic regional nationalism in post-imperial Britain, especially so in Scotland which has had its own “devolved” parliament since 1999. Since Scotland and (narrowly) Northern Ireland voted to stay in the EU, the only regions apart from London to do so, their link to England is now open to renewed challenge.
Scotland’s nationalist first minister Nicola Sturgeon was quick to flag up the “highly likely” possibility of a second independence ballot, lost by 55-45% in 2014, if it suits her (if she risks losing twice it may not). Not for the first time the deft tone of Sturgeon’s polished calculation outshone her UK rivals, Cameron and Johnson included.Scotland’s nationalist first minister Nicola Sturgeon was quick to flag up the “highly likely” possibility of a second independence ballot, lost by 55-45% in 2014, if it suits her (if she risks losing twice it may not). Not for the first time the deft tone of Sturgeon’s polished calculation outshone her UK rivals, Cameron and Johnson included.
In Belfast Sinn Féin’s Martin McGuiness, former IRA commander turned politician, suggested another vote on finally uniting Ireland’s 32 counties would avoid the restoration of a 300-mile land border with the EU. As for Celtic Wales, a major beneficiary of EU cash for more deprived regions, it voted to leave. Illogical perhaps, but yet another cry of pain.In Belfast Sinn Féin’s Martin McGuiness, former IRA commander turned politician, suggested another vote on finally uniting Ireland’s 32 counties would avoid the restoration of a 300-mile land border with the EU. As for Celtic Wales, a major beneficiary of EU cash for more deprived regions, it voted to leave. Illogical perhaps, but yet another cry of pain.
The high-end rhetoric from Brexit campaigners has been about reasserting “national sovereignty”, “democracy” and “freedom”, ending the stream of directives and red tape, real and imagined, from Brussels, the EU’s HQ. But as in red state America the rhetoric sometimes clothes freedom from regulation and social protection that works better for capital and corporations than voters stuck in low wage, insecure jobs.The high-end rhetoric from Brexit campaigners has been about reasserting “national sovereignty”, “democracy” and “freedom”, ending the stream of directives and red tape, real and imagined, from Brussels, the EU’s HQ. But as in red state America the rhetoric sometimes clothes freedom from regulation and social protection that works better for capital and corporations than voters stuck in low wage, insecure jobs.
In largely secular Europe, the fiercer aspects of American culture wars – guns and God, abortion – are usually absent from public discourse. More familiar and crucial to today’s outcome has been the Brexit leadership’s low-end rhetoric, channeling anger against the million-plus eastern European jobseekers arriving in the UK since they exercised rights of “free movement” after 10 ex Warsaw Pact countries joined the EU in 2004. In largely secular Europe, the fiercer aspects of American culture wars – guns and God, abortion – are usually absent from public discourse. More familiar and crucial to today’s outcome has been the Brexit leadership’s low-end rhetoric, channeling anger against the million-plus eastern European jobseekers arriving in the UK since they exercised rights of “free movement” after 10 ex-Warsaw Pact countries joined the EU in 2004.
Some canvassers report that Asian migrant families long established in British cities voted Brexit along with white neighbours to stem the flow the newcomers. If Cameron’s strategic error was to concede a risky referendum, the last Labour government led by Tony Blair and Gordon Brown made a grievous one too. It failed to impose transitional restrictions on the “Polish Plumber” as France and Germany did. That fed resentments arising from seven years of fiscal austerity in Britain. Some canvassers report that Asian migrant families long established in British cities voted Brexit along with white neighbours to stem the flow the newcomers. If Cameron’s strategic error was to concede a risky referendum, the last Labour government led by Tony Blair and Gordon Brown made a grievous one too. It failed to impose transitional restrictions on the “Polish plumber” as France and Germany did. That fed resentments arising from seven years of fiscal austerity in Britain.
As with the 2003 Iraq war which most EU states sat out, as with Britain’s propensity to play the passive victim in EU politics, so Britain’s mishandling of immigration policy was its own. But blaming “Brussels” – like blaming “Washington” – is a popular excuse for failure at every level, including the personal. On TV Brexit leader Michael Gove blamed EU fish conservation policy for destroying his father’s Aberdeen wholesale business. Guardian investigation showed it wasn’t true, but many voters were concerned with feelings, not with detail.As with the 2003 Iraq war which most EU states sat out, as with Britain’s propensity to play the passive victim in EU politics, so Britain’s mishandling of immigration policy was its own. But blaming “Brussels” – like blaming “Washington” – is a popular excuse for failure at every level, including the personal. On TV Brexit leader Michael Gove blamed EU fish conservation policy for destroying his father’s Aberdeen wholesale business. Guardian investigation showed it wasn’t true, but many voters were concerned with feelings, not with detail.
Nigel Farage, leader of the UK Independence Party (Ukip), Britain’s populist Tea Party, who played the immigration card with brisk efficiency, celebrated a very personal triumph as “independence day” – a rejection of arrogant elites. Yet the Brexiters’ “What about us?” mood is hardly confined to Britain.Nigel Farage, leader of the UK Independence Party (Ukip), Britain’s populist Tea Party, who played the immigration card with brisk efficiency, celebrated a very personal triumph as “independence day” – a rejection of arrogant elites. Yet the Brexiters’ “What about us?” mood is hardly confined to Britain.
By breakfast time on Friday leaders of the French and Dutch equivalents of the Brexit movements had demanded a similar “sovereignty” referendum against what they routinely present as the tyranny of educated and metropolitan elites. In EU capitals disappointed leaders, who know their own lives have just been made more onerous, were cautious, but want to get Britain out quickly, for fear of contagion.By breakfast time on Friday leaders of the French and Dutch equivalents of the Brexit movements had demanded a similar “sovereignty” referendum against what they routinely present as the tyranny of educated and metropolitan elites. In EU capitals disappointed leaders, who know their own lives have just been made more onerous, were cautious, but want to get Britain out quickly, for fear of contagion.
All concerned stress that life will continue as normal for the time being. But that is not true. Global ad tycoon, Martin Sorrell, stated the obvious when he observed “uncertainty is the enemy of growth”. Contrary to what Cameron said during the campaign Britain will not immediately trigger Article 50 of the EU’s treaties and start the formal two year withdrawal process. All concerned stress that life will continue as normal for the time being. But that is not true. Global ad tycoon, Martin Sorrell, stated the obvious when he observed “uncertainty is the enemy of growth”. Contrary to what Cameron said during the campaign Britain will not immediately trigger Article 50 of the EU’s treaties and start the formal two-year withdrawal process.
Informal talks behind closed doors will come first. But voters who backed Brexit as a panacea for Britain’s woes may expect something on account. The promised relief from austerity as those EU budget contributions are repatriated? An end to the inflow of migrants, half of last year’s 330,000 net being from the EU? It will all take time and patience, qualities in short supply.Informal talks behind closed doors will come first. But voters who backed Brexit as a panacea for Britain’s woes may expect something on account. The promised relief from austerity as those EU budget contributions are repatriated? An end to the inflow of migrants, half of last year’s 330,000 net being from the EU? It will all take time and patience, qualities in short supply.
But even if the Brexiters’ hopes of a “more prosperous future” prove true, it will be tough in the short term. Market turmoil is just the start of it.But even if the Brexiters’ hopes of a “more prosperous future” prove true, it will be tough in the short term. Market turmoil is just the start of it.