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The Brexit doesn't mean Trump will triumph – despite what he says Brexit doesn't mean Trump will triumph – despite what he says
(about 1 hour later)
Britain’s decision to leave the European Union will have little bearing on Donald Trump’s chances of winning the White House in November.Britain’s decision to leave the European Union will have little bearing on Donald Trump’s chances of winning the White House in November.
Related: Donald Trump arrives in UK and hails Brexit vote as 'great victory'Related: Donald Trump arrives in UK and hails Brexit vote as 'great victory'
There are, admittedly, similarities between the populist and anti-immigration attitudes that motivated many to vote for Trump in the Republican primary and many to push the UK towards the door marked “Brexit”.There are, admittedly, similarities between the populist and anti-immigration attitudes that motivated many to vote for Trump in the Republican primary and many to push the UK towards the door marked “Brexit”.
Brexit voters were also whiter, older, less well educated and from areas that had not participated in the recent economic recovery. They were motivated by resentment towards immigrants and refugees and disdain for metropolitan elites.Brexit voters were also whiter, older, less well educated and from areas that had not participated in the recent economic recovery. They were motivated by resentment towards immigrants and refugees and disdain for metropolitan elites.
But the American and British electorates are so different that it is impossible to productively compare the two.But the American and British electorates are so different that it is impossible to productively compare the two.
The biggest difference is that the UK is a lot whiter. According to the most recent census data, 86% of the British population is white. In the US, only 63% is non-Hispanic white.The biggest difference is that the UK is a lot whiter. According to the most recent census data, 86% of the British population is white. In the US, only 63% is non-Hispanic white.
A recent national poll from the Washington Post and ABC News showed that non-white voters viewed Trump with almost unprecedented levels of disdain. Only 4% of black voters and 11% of Hispanic voters had a favorable view of him. Another national poll, from Monmouth, showed Trump to have the support of a mere 17% of black, Hispanic and Asian voters.A recent national poll from the Washington Post and ABC News showed that non-white voters viewed Trump with almost unprecedented levels of disdain. Only 4% of black voters and 11% of Hispanic voters had a favorable view of him. Another national poll, from Monmouth, showed Trump to have the support of a mere 17% of black, Hispanic and Asian voters.
In the UK, minority voters were overwhelmingly for staying in the European Union. Polling data from Lord Ashcroft shows that two thirds of Asian voters and nearly three quarters of black voters supported the Remain campaign. It was just that the electorate wasn’t diverse enough for this to make a difference.In the UK, minority voters were overwhelmingly for staying in the European Union. Polling data from Lord Ashcroft shows that two thirds of Asian voters and nearly three quarters of black voters supported the Remain campaign. It was just that the electorate wasn’t diverse enough for this to make a difference.
In the US, it is anticipated that more than 30% of voters in the presidential election will be members of a minority group. The Brexit vote looked a lot more like that in a Republican presidential primary.In the US, it is anticipated that more than 30% of voters in the presidential election will be members of a minority group. The Brexit vote looked a lot more like that in a Republican presidential primary.
There are other differences. A US presidential election, for example, is a fierce and partisan campaign in which tribal loyalties span generations. In the EU referendum, the British electorate splintered across party lines.There are other differences. A US presidential election, for example, is a fierce and partisan campaign in which tribal loyalties span generations. In the EU referendum, the British electorate splintered across party lines.
The Liberal Democrats have long been the most pro-European British party. On Thursday, according to the Ashcroft data, 30% of their voters were for leaving. Americans do not depart from party lines: in 2012, 92% of self-identified Democrats voted for Barack Obama and 93% of self-identified Republicans voted for Mitt Romney.The Liberal Democrats have long been the most pro-European British party. On Thursday, according to the Ashcroft data, 30% of their voters were for leaving. Americans do not depart from party lines: in 2012, 92% of self-identified Democrats voted for Barack Obama and 93% of self-identified Republicans voted for Mitt Romney.
The mechanics of the Brexit campaign were also different. The UK has strict campaign finance laws. In comparison, American presidential campaigns are the wild west. Trump is at massive disadvantage, having raised little money. Hillary Clinton has 32 times as much cash on hand and has reserved more than $20m of TV ads in swing states.The mechanics of the Brexit campaign were also different. The UK has strict campaign finance laws. In comparison, American presidential campaigns are the wild west. Trump is at massive disadvantage, having raised little money. Hillary Clinton has 32 times as much cash on hand and has reserved more than $20m of TV ads in swing states.
None of this, of course, stopped Trump from trying to tie the referendum result to his campaign.None of this, of course, stopped Trump from trying to tie the referendum result to his campaign.
“The people of the United Kingdom have exercised the sacred right of all free peoples,” he said, on his visit to his golf courses in Scotland. “They have declared their independence from the European Union and have voted to reassert control over their own politics, borders and economy.”“The people of the United Kingdom have exercised the sacred right of all free peoples,” he said, on his visit to his golf courses in Scotland. “They have declared their independence from the European Union and have voted to reassert control over their own politics, borders and economy.”
Trump continued: “Come November, the American people will have the chance to re-declare their independence. Americans will have a chance to vote for trade, immigration and foreign policies that put our citizens first.Trump continued: “Come November, the American people will have the chance to re-declare their independence. Americans will have a chance to vote for trade, immigration and foreign policies that put our citizens first.
“They will have the chance to reject today’s rule by the global elite, and to embrace real change that delivers a government of, by and for the people.”“They will have the chance to reject today’s rule by the global elite, and to embrace real change that delivers a government of, by and for the people.”
Trump may yet regret this attempt to tie his campaign to the Brexit victory. After all, he is facing a different electorate, one familiar with the precipitous collapse in global markets that followed Thursday’s vote.Trump may yet regret this attempt to tie his campaign to the Brexit victory. After all, he is facing a different electorate, one familiar with the precipitous collapse in global markets that followed Thursday’s vote.
American voters may not have a very nuanced understanding of the European Union, but they are very aware of the balance in their 401k.American voters may not have a very nuanced understanding of the European Union, but they are very aware of the balance in their 401k.