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Second general election looks set to leave Spain divided Second general election looks set to leave Spain divided
(about 1 hour later)
Even before Spaniards went to the polls on Sunday, there was talk that Spain might need a third general election to sort out its problems. As the first official results came through early in the night, it looked as though the country remained evenly divided between a left-wing bloc of socialists with the insurgent, anti-austerity Podemos and a right-wing bloc headed by acting prime minister Mariano Rajoy’s People’s Party (PP). Indeed, very little has changed since Spaniards went to the polls in December. A third round of elections remains a possibility – meaning Spain could spend a whole year in leaderless limbo. In December Spain’s leftwing parties scored a narrow triumph over the incumbent, pro-austerity People’s party (PP) of prime minister Mariano Rajoy. They won more votes and were in a much better position to form a government.
Yet Spanish voters have delivered a clear message that politics is no longer a game of absolute winners and absolute losers. In December they transformed the two-party system that emerged during Spain’s transition to democracy in the 1970s by voting for a fractured parliament where no party has more than 35% of the vote. On Sunday the insurgents lost some ground, but the message remained the same. They failed, however, to reach agreement, so a second election was held on Sunday. Rajoy, whose party is awash with corruption scandals but has overseen a return to growth in the Spanish economy, won. Now Spain faces several years more of austerity and internal devaluation.
Related: What's the mood in Spain following the election? The so-called “Spanish revolution” proclaimed by the indignados (outraged) who turned out in their hundreds of thousands in Spanish city squares in 2011 and which was later taken up the remarkable Podemos party appears to have fizzled. Last night, it was PP supporters who shouted “Yes, we can!” to Mr Rajoy, taunting Podemos by using its own famous slogan.
Political leaders in Madrid, in other words, must get used to the idea of power-sharing. They failed to get that message after December’s close-run elections; will they now?
The most significant result of this election was meant to be a so-called “sorpasso” (overtaking) on the left, with the traditional social democrats of the Spanish Socialists Workers Party (PSOE) overtaken by the clever young upstarts from Podemos. Yet in terms of parliamentary seats, that clearly has not happened.
A shift back towards the traditional parties – with the liberal insurgents of Ciudadanos losing a large share of their votes – means that Rajoy’s PP is even more clearly in charge of the right-wing bloc.
Much will now depend on whether the left can forget its differences and win the backing of nationalist and separatist parties in Catalonia and the Basque country to form a government. The socialists and Podemos failed to do that after the December elections, provoking this second round.
The other option is that Rajoy returns as prime minister, either at the head of a minority government or in a “grand coalition” with the socialists.
The results were a major blow for Podemos – the first in its short, two and a half year life. Pablo Iglesias, the ponytailed young politics lecturer who almost singlehandedly made the party popular with his television debate show appearances, may find his leadership questioned.
Related: Will a brave new Spain rise from the election stalemate? | Ana RomeroRelated: Will a brave new Spain rise from the election stalemate? | Ana Romero
Traditional socialist voters were offended by Iglesias’s fierce criticisms of former party leaders, such as four-times prime minister Felipe González, as soon as he entered parliament. In one notorious speech he blamed González for the death squads that operated against suspected armed Basque separatists in the 1980s. This second round of elections was sparked by several things, including the battle between insurgents and established parties – with socialists and PP battling against the newcomers of Podemos and Ciudadanos respectively. But it was also the result of a parliament which was so fractured that any government would necessarily have required a pact between people who disagreed on at least one of the two fundamental issues facing Spain.
Podemos was founded, in part, by anti-capitalists. The raised, radical fist was often present at party meetings in its early days. Yet the party has almost proved to be a chameleon. Strategy – and winning power – have often appeared to trump policy and principle. One of those issues is the economy and how to get a country with 20% unemployment back to work. The other is the battle over the rise of separatism in Catalonia and calls for a referendum to settle the matter.
In its latest incarnation, Podemos had branded itself as representing what it called “new social democracy”. In simple terms that meant going back to a form of social democracy that existed before Tony Blair set off on his “third way” politics, taking the Labour party with him. Indeed, the former prime minister was often held up by Iglesias as the man responsible for leading leftwing politics in the wrong direction. The latter proved an insurmountable obstacle to the left – which is split on whether a referendum should be allowed. The socialists do not want one; Podemos does. Yet, in order to govern, the two parties would have needed the backing of Catalan separatist parties in the Madrid parliament.
Yet while Podemos tries to shed the “radical” tag, it also went into these elections in coalition with communist-led Izquierda Unida (IU) – which may have brought it more than 10% of its total vote. Some disgruntled IU members complain that its new partner is a “catchall party” with no real beliefs. Related: What's the mood in Spain following the election?
Socialist leader Pedro Sanchez will find his leadership reinforced by this result, but he may face internal rebellion in his party if he chooses to go with Podemos and Catalan separatists. Podemos was not too worried. It thought it could overtake the socialists as the leading force on the left and, so, either lead the government or lead the opposition. It will now do neither.
Just as in December, in fact, the balance of power lies in Catalonia and – more specifically – in the hands of parties demanding a referendum on independence. Rajoy will never give them that. The socialists also, for the moment, refuse. It would take a near miracle to form a left-wing government now. Pedro Sanchez, the socialist leader, was cheered by his followers for holding off the Podemos challenge. If he wants to govern, however, he must first persuade Podemos to back him. Then he must also reverse his party’s policy on Catalonia in order to win the support of separatists there. That seems unlikely to happen.
That returns Spain to impasse, with Catalonia as its greatest headache. It also means a third round of elections is possible. Rajoy may also struggle to form a government, but is far better placed to do so. If he can strike a deal with the liberal Ciudadanos and with moderate nationalists and regional parties in the Basque Country and the Canary Islands, he will be just one seat short of a majority.
Related: Unidos Podemos: Spain's leftwing alliance hoping to end political impasse
That does not mean Spain is returning to its old ways. Voters have delivered a clear message that politics is no longer a game of absolute winners and absolute losers. In December they transformed the two-party system that had emerged during Spain’s transition to democracy in the 1970s by voting for a fractured parliament where no party has more than 35 percent of the vote.
Corruption, unemployment and recession had knocked popular support for both PP and socialists. On Sunday, even though the insurgents lost ground, the message remained the same.
Political leaders in Madrid, in other words, must get used to the idea of power-sharing. The left failed to get that message after December’s close-run elections. Will the right, with PP and Ciudadanos, now show that they understand?
The results were a major blow for Podemos – the first in its short, two-and-a-half year life. Pablo Iglesias, the ponytailed young politics lecturer who almost single-handedly made the party popular, may find his leadership questioned.
Many potential voters were offended by Iglesias’s fierce criticisms of former party leaders, like four-times prime minister Felipe González, as soon as he entered parliament. In one notorious speech, he blamed González for the death squads which operated against suspected armed Basque separatists in the 1980s.
Other voters may have blamed Podemos for refusing to back a proposed government led by Sanchez with the support of Ciudadanos.
Podemos was founded, in part, by anti-capitalists. The raised, radical fist was often present at party meetings in its early days. Yet the party has also proved to be a chameleon. Strategy, and winning power, have often appeared to trump policy and principal.
In its latest incarnation, Podemos branded itself as representing what it called “new social democracy”. In simple terms that meant going back to a form of social democracy that existed before Tony Blair set off on his “third way” politics, taking Britain’s Labour Party with him. Yet while trying to shed the “radical” tag, Podemos also went into these elections in coalition with communist-led Izquierda Unida (IU). Either way, it is no closer to power than it was six months ago.