On Trade, Donald Trump Breaks with G.O.P., and Economists

http://www.nytimes.com/2016/07/06/us/politics/donald-trump-trade.html

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Donald J. Trump has declared his independence.

Speaking on trade last week before the United States’ signature holiday, the presumptive Republican nominee for president declared his independence from the “financial elite,” “powerful corporations” and “Wall Street funders,” saying they “rigged the system for their benefit” at the expense of average workers.

He vowed to unravel “job killing” trade deals and has threatened “consequences” for American companies that move factories abroad.

He denounced Chinese trade policies, accusing Beijing of “the greatest jobs theft in history.”

And he had no patience for politicians who accepted “economic surrender.” He accused them of abandoning the 18th-century wisdom of the Founding Fathers and the protective tariffs they used to safeguard American industry from overseas competition.

“It’s time,” he said in Pennsylvania’s steel country, “to declare our economic independence once again.”

For Mr. Trump’s White House chances, so far so good.

His problem lies beyond those appealing catchphrases. In rejecting recent trade deals, Mr. Trump also declared his independence from mainstream modern economic thinking, which holds that freer flows of capital and goods make the United States and the world richer by letting economic activity occur more efficiently.

He would abandon the policy of seeking lower prices for American consumers by smoothing the path for less-expensive imports.

Mr. Trump would reject the path taken by recent Republican presidents, including Ronald Reagan, who put those ideas into practice through trade agreements, and from Republican lawmakers who voted for those agreements in large numbers.

He would also reject the views of influential Republicans who view tariffs as likely to damage the economy, not protect jobs. They include Speaker Paul D. Ryan and business groups such as the U.S. Chamber of Commerce that support Republican candidates financially.

“Under Trump’s trade plans, we would see higher prices, fewer jobs and a weaker economy,” the Chamber of Commerce said on Twitter.

Many disaffected Americans, facing diminished prospects because of foreign competition, automation and other economic trends, distrust those in power. They applaud Mr. Trump.

But Mr. Trump needs a majority. He currently draws around 40 percent in opinion polls, and he must find a way to raise more money fast to compete with Hillary Clinton, his presumptive Democratic challenger.

Mitt Romney, the Republican nominee four years ago, has denounced his candidacy. The two most recent Republican presidents have declined to support him.

Henry M. Paulson Jr., a Treasury secretary for former President George W. Bush, announced that he would vote for Mrs. Clinton and called a Trump presidency “unthinkable.” Paul E. Singer, a prominent investor and Republican donor, warned that his trade policies would trigger a depression.

Few Americans know Mr. Paulson or Mr. Singer. But like other Republican senators and governors who publicly refuse to back Mr. Trump, they send signals to college-educated, business-oriented voters and contributors who traditionally support the party’s nominee but are wavering this year.

Recent Republican candidates have drawn 90 percent or more of the vote from self-described Republicans. In a Fox News poll released last week, Mr. Trump drew 74 percent.

He could compensate with unusually robust support from Democrats and independents, but that seems unlikely. In the Fox poll, he drew 6 percent and 39 percent from those groups.

Mr. Trump aims to swell the blue-collar backing that powered his primary victories. His path to the White House requires support from whites without college degrees even greater than the 62 percent they gave Mr. Romney.

To do that, he will have to overcome vehement opposition from union organizations. The A.F.L.-C.I.O., which backs Democrats but shares his views on trade, condemns Mr. Trump as a “fraud” because some of his businesses manufacture their products abroad.

Twenty years ago, Patrick J. Buchanan mounted an insurgent Republican campaign using anti-trade rhetoric as ammunition. He, too, invoked the War of Independence.

“Do not wait for orders from headquarters,” he exhorted his ragtag political militia after winning the New Hampshire primary. “Ride to the sound of the guns!”

For Mr. Buchanan, too few followed the muskets. Mr. Trump has four months to muster an army capable of winning a 21st-century war.