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| Version 17 | Version 18 |
|---|---|
| Tory leadership election: Leadsom beats Gove to join May on shortlist - live | Tory leadership election: Leadsom beats Gove to join May on shortlist - live |
| (35 minutes later) | |
| 5.35pm BST | |
| 17:35 | |
| What the Tory leadership election result means | |
| Andrew Sparrow | |
| 1 - The next prime minister will be a woman. Apologies for stating the obvious, but the new Conservative leader due to be announced on Friday 9 September will be only the second woman to serve as prime minister. The UK and Scottish governments will both have female leaders at the same time. And, if Hillary Clinton becomes US president, then three of the G7 leaders will be women - another first. | |
| 2 - And the next prime minister is likely to be Theresa May. May goes into the contest as the clear favourite. With 199 votes, May won the support of 60% of MPs. She is vastly more experienced than Andrea Leadsom and she is attracting significant support from Tories who voted leave, as well as those who, like her, voted remain. A YouGov poll of Conservative members earlier this week showed her well ahead of Leadsom. | |
| 3 - But Andrea Leadsom has a real chance of winning. Over the last two days she was received quite a lot of hostile press coverage, including from rightwing papers like the Daily Mail and the Times, mostly about the fact that her City career does not seem to have been quite as high-powered as people assumed. But this does not seem to have cost her much support in the Commons. (I’m sad to report that Tory MPs obviously don’t take any notice of my blog.) Leadsom received 84 votes, 18 more than last time. More significantly, there is some evidence that her popularity is soaring amongst the grassroots. Although the YouGov figures show May well ahead of her amongst the membership, a ConservativeHome survey of party members this week showed her narrowly ahead of May. | |
| This was a survey, not a poll, and therefore it is likely to be less reliable. Tory insiders believe it over-stated Leadsom’s support, because activist Eurosceptics were probably more likely to participate than May-leaning armchair moderates. But they also believe that the trend it has identified - a surge towards Leadsom - is real. | |
| 4 - Leadsom has two big advantages - and May might have to end up having to attack Leadsom’s inexperience quite brutally to overcome them. Leadsom’s plus points are: 1) that she is the most anti-Europe candidate; and 2) that she is the most new. In most Tory leaderships that anyone can remember the winner has tended to a fresh-faced newcomer with a strong Eurosceptic pitch. This is particularly true of the only two previous contests involving all party members having a vote: 2001, which saw Iain Duncan Smith beat Ken Clarke; and 2005, which saw David Cameron beat David Davis. (Cameron is not more Eurosceptic than Davis now, but at the time he committed to taking the Tories out of the federalist EPP group in the European parliament.) But this is the first such contest to elect a prime minister, instead of an opposition leader, and therefore it will be surprising if May does not end up stressing the dangers of electing someone so inexperienced. | |
| 5 - Michael Gove has paid a heavy price for his treachery. It was a week ago today when he announced he was no longer supporting Boris Johnson and instead standing for leader on his own. Until that point the prospects of the Johnson/Gove ticket winning the leadership seemed very high indeed. But today all that’s of that are Gove’s 46 votes - a mere 14% of the parliamentary party. Gove was clearly being punished for his disloyalty to his sometime friend. Interestingly, Gove’s vote actually went down by two since Tuesday - possibly because his ally Nick Boles was caught trying to hobble the Leadsom campaign aggressively. | |
| 6 - There will be intense now in discovering whether “insurgency fever” has gripped the Conservative membership. In the past they have picked novice anti-Europeans as leader. But this leadership election is taking place against the backdrop of a general election victory last year, not a general election defeat, and it is hard to pick up an appetite for radical change in the party. Also, members will be electing a prime minister. But the election of Jeremy Corbyn as Labour leader last year showed just how easy it is now for a candidate backed by a grassroots insurgency to beat a stuffy establishment rival. There is a limit to how far one can push the Leadsom/Corbyn parallel - she is minister with mainstream backing, Corbyn was a maverick backbench until elected leader - but they are both change candidates, with backing from outside the party (Ukip and the Greens respectively). If the Tory membership has become Kipperish in recent year, May will be in trouble. | |
| Updated | |
| at 5.39pm BST | |
| 4.52pm BST | 4.52pm BST |
| 16:52 | 16:52 |
| Michael Gove is speaking now. | Michael Gove is speaking now. |
| He thanks his supporters. He had some of the brightest and the best supporting him. | He thanks his supporters. He had some of the brightest and the best supporting him. |
| He congratulates Theresa May and Andrea Leadsom. | He congratulates Theresa May and Andrea Leadsom. |
| He says he is pleased the next PM will be a female PM with formidable skills. | He says he is pleased the next PM will be a female PM with formidable skills. |
| He says members must assess their skills. He hopes the party will have a debate that is civilised, inclusive and optimistic. | He says members must assess their skills. He hopes the party will have a debate that is civilised, inclusive and optimistic. |
| He has played his part by saying the party’s first concern should be standing up for the dispossessed and the voiceless. | He has played his part by saying the party’s first concern should be standing up for the dispossessed and the voiceless. |
| 4.29pm BST | 4.29pm BST |
| 16:29 | 16:29 |
| Theresa May says she is delighted to have won support from all over the party. | Theresa May says she is delighted to have won support from all over the party. |
| This shows she can unite the party, she says. | This shows she can unite the party, she says. |
| She says she has always said there should be a contest. She will take her case to the country. | She says she has always said there should be a contest. She will take her case to the country. |
| She wants a united party. And she wants a Britain that works for everyone, not just the privileged few. | She wants a united party. And she wants a Britain that works for everyone, not just the privileged few. |
| Updated | |
| at 5.09pm BST | |
| 4.28pm BST | 4.28pm BST |
| 16:28 | 16:28 |
| Theresa May is addressing the media outside parliament now. | Theresa May is addressing the media outside parliament now. |
| 4.22pm BST | 4.22pm BST |
| 16:22 | 16:22 |
| Leadsom beats Gove to join May on shortlist for Conservative leadership ballot | Leadsom beats Gove to join May on shortlist for Conservative leadership ballot |
| Here are the results. | Here are the results. |
| Theresa May - 199 | Theresa May - 199 |
| Andrea Leadsom - 84 | Andrea Leadsom - 84 |
| Michael Gove - 46 | Michael Gove - 46 |
| 4.19pm BST | 4.19pm BST |
| 16:19 | 16:19 |
| This is from the Spectator’s James Forsyth. | This is from the Spectator’s James Forsyth. |
| Campaign managers just went in | Campaign managers just went in |
| 4.18pm BST | 4.18pm BST |
| 16:18 | 16:18 |
| This is from the BBC’s Peter Henley. | This is from the BBC’s Peter Henley. |
| The stage is set for the result of voting in the Conservative Leadership pic.twitter.com/TJNfUcGBfP | The stage is set for the result of voting in the Conservative Leadership pic.twitter.com/TJNfUcGBfP |
| 4.17pm BST | 4.17pm BST |
| 16:17 | 16:17 |
| This is from Huffington Post’s Owen Bennett. | This is from Huffington Post’s Owen Bennett. |
| In committee room 8 waiting for to hear who has made it to the final 2 in the Tory leadership contest. Leadsom team are confident | In committee room 8 waiting for to hear who has made it to the final 2 in the Tory leadership contest. Leadsom team are confident |
| Updated | Updated |
| at 4.18pm BST | at 4.18pm BST |
| 4.17pm BST | 4.17pm BST |
| 16:17 | 16:17 |
| This is from the Times’s Frances Elliott. | This is from the Times’s Frances Elliott. |
| Team Gove talking down prospects -Boles text did real damage they say | Team Gove talking down prospects -Boles text did real damage they say |
| 4.15pm BST | 4.15pm BST |
| 16:15 | 16:15 |
| This is from the Conservative MP Christopher Pincher. | This is from the Conservative MP Christopher Pincher. |
| Snapping the snappers outside Westminster awaiting the leadership ballot announcement #TM4PM pic.twitter.com/9emLK3zNU7 | Snapping the snappers outside Westminster awaiting the leadership ballot announcement #TM4PM pic.twitter.com/9emLK3zNU7 |
| 4.14pm BST | 4.14pm BST |
| 16:14 | 16:14 |
| According to Guido Fawkes, Theresa May has hired a leading Conservative remain campaigner, Alison Griffiths, to run her campaign. | According to Guido Fawkes, Theresa May has hired a leading Conservative remain campaigner, Alison Griffiths, to run her campaign. |