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‘Brexit’ and Russia Loom Over Obama’s Final NATO Summit Meeting ‘Brexit’ and Russia Loom Over Obama’s Final NATO Summit Meeting
(about 11 hours later)
WASHINGTON — President Obama left for Poland on Thursday morning to attend a NATO summit meeting that is occurring against a tumultuous backdrop of Russian aggression in Eastern Europe, a migrant crisis and terrorism fears on the Continent’s southern rim, and internal disarray in the wake of Britain’s vote to leave the European Union. WARSAW — President Obama arrived here early on Friday morning to attend a NATO summit meeting that is unfolding against a tumultuous backdrop of renewed Russian aggression in Eastern Europe, a migrant crisis and terrorism fears on the Continent’s southern rim and internal disarray in the wake of Britain’s vote to leave the European Union.
Mr. Obama will confront all those forces in two hectic days in his final appearance at a summit meeting of the Atlantic alliance. In addition to his usual schedule, administration officials said they expected him to meet with Prime Minister David Cameron of Britain to discuss what comes next after the British vote. Mr. Obama will confront all those forces in a hectic two days of meetings during his last appearance at a NATO meeting. But it is the last challenge that may prove the most vexing: Britain’s “Brexit” vote utterly changes the landscape, experts said, not just for the European Union but also for the trans-Atlantic alliance that lies at the heart of NATO.
NATO will announce a raft of military initiatives to deal with the threats from Russia and the tide of refugees fleeing the civil war in Syria. What Mr. Obama and the other leaders may find more elusive are the arguments to convey why alliances like this remain vital, at a time when the citizens of Europe’s most important military power just voted to go it alone.
“There hasn’t been another inflection point like this for the alliance since the fall of the Berlin Wall and the dissolution of the Soviet Union in ’89 to ’91,” Douglas E. Lute, the American ambassador to NATO, told reporters on Wednesday. “So this is a bit of a historic point.”“There hasn’t been another inflection point like this for the alliance since the fall of the Berlin Wall and the dissolution of the Soviet Union in ’89 to ’91,” Douglas E. Lute, the American ambassador to NATO, told reporters on Wednesday. “So this is a bit of a historic point.”
NATO will announce several military measures to deter Russia and to counter other threats. The alliance is strengthening its eastern flank by stationing four battalions of troops in Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania and Poland, with one to be led by the United States. NATO will also place a Romanian-led brigade in southeast Europe. The White House has been circumspect in speaking publicly about the fallout from the British vote. Administration officials tend to confine their comments to hopes that the process will be handled in an orderly manner, so as not to harm the economy or disrupt financial markets. Such reticence suggests the White House, like many in Britain itself, is still in denial, in the view of some analysts.
The most important meetings will be held behind closed doors, where the leaders will discuss how to confront President Vladimir V. Putin of Russia, how to battle the foreign fighters of the Islamic State, and how to maintain the cohesion of Europe when its largest military power is leaving the European Union. “The White House has yet to fully acknowledge the shift in Europe today and the challenges that it faces,” said Heather A. Conley, the director of the Europe program at the Center for Strategic and International Studies.
Mr. Obama spoke by phone with Mr. Putin on Wednesday. The White House said the president urged Mr. Putin to press the Syrian government to abide by a partial cease-fire in the civil war there, and to clamp down on a “significant uptick in fighting in Eastern Ukraine.” Administration officials said they expected Mr. Obama to meet one on one in Warsaw with Prime Minister David Cameron of Britain to discuss what comes next after the referendum. Afterward, they acknowledged, the president would need to make an “affirmative case” for the value of the European Union, and more broadly, for an integrated world.
Administration officials said that at the summit meeting, Mr. Obama would emphasize ways that NATO could cooperate militarily with the European Union to compensate for the disruption caused by the British vote. Those include coordinating strategy on countering cyberthreats and patrolling the central Mediterranean. Benjamin J. Rhodes, the deputy national security adviser, said, “All leaders in Europe and the United States, including himself, have a responsibility in the face of all of these challenges to the trans-Atlantic order we built, to make the case.” If they did not, Russia would seek to exploit the divisions in Europe. “That cannot simply be swept under the rug,” Mr. Rhodes said.
The NATO leaders will also discuss the security situation in Afghanistan, which Mr. Obama described on Wednesday as “precarious.” He clarified the American military commitment to the country, announcing that the United States would delay, yet again, its drawdown of troops there, leaving 8,400 American soldiers in Afghanistan until the end of his presidency. To some extent, Russia is the familiar threat at this meeting. Its aggression toward Ukraine dominated the last NATO summit meeting in Wales, and two years later, the alliance has put in place military measures to deter it. NATO is strengthening its eastern flank by deploying four rotational battalions, one led by the United States, in Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania and Poland.
After the NATO meeting in Warsaw, Mr. Obama will travel to Spain, the only major European Union country he has not yet visited as president. He is scheduled for some sightseeing in Seville on Sunday, before touring a Navy destroyer and addressing the troops at the American naval station in Rota. The alliance is expected to declare that the initial phase of its missile-defense system is finally operational. And the leaders are scheduled to discuss ways to deter members from cyberattacks, having elevated cyberwarfare to the same status as air, land and naval warfare.
On Monday, Mr. Obama will have lunch in Madrid with the king of Spain, Felipe VI, and will meet with the country’s acting prime minister, Mariano Rajoy. Over dinner on Friday night, the leaders will discuss how best to deal with President Vladimir V. Putin of Russia. Mr. Obama will be able to deliver a briefing, having spoken with Mr. Putin the day before he left Washington. Officials suggested the conversation was starchy, with the president scolding Mr. Putin for a “significant uptick in fighting in Eastern Ukraine” and urging him to press the Syrian government to abide by a partial cease-fire.
Mr. Rhodes disputed a report from the Kremlin that the two countries were moving toward military cooperation in Syria. “If the trends of the last several weeks continue,” he said, referring to recent Russian behavior regarding Syria, “they’ve been moving in the wrong direction.”
Administration officials said Mr. Obama would emphasize ways NATO could cooperate militarily with the European Union — modest but symbolically significant gestures to counter the rifts exposed by the British vote. Those include joint military exercises, coordinating cyberdefense strategy and joint patrols of the central Mediterranean Sea.
On Afghanistan, too, there is scope for unity. Mr. Obama, who on Wednesday described the security situation in the country as “precarious,” announced that the United States would again delay its drawdown of troops, leaving 8,400 soldiers there until the end of his presidency. That commitment, analysts said, would make it easier for other NATO members to deploy troops.
After the Warsaw meeting, Mr. Obama will get a brief respite from Europe’s turmoil by visiting Spain — though even there, officials have been unable to form a new government since recent elections. In Seville, he is scheduled to do some sightseeing and speak to the troops at the American naval station in Rota. The next day, in Madrid, he will have lunch with King Felipe VI and meet with Spain’s caretaker prime minister, Mariano Rajoy.
White House officials said Mr. Obama was traveling to Spain because it was the last big European Union country he had not visited as president. An equally plausible explanation is that he is friendly with the American ambassador, James Costos, a former HBO executive whose weekend house in Rancho Mirage, Calif., Mr. Obama often uses for golf getaways.