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| Version 2 | Version 3 |
|---|---|
| How Tory party members will choose the next prime minister | How Tory party members will choose the next prime minister |
| (about 2 months later) | |
| Now that Conservative MPs have chosen their two leadership candidates, Theresa May and Andrea Leadsom, the party’s members will decide who will be the UK’s next prime minister. | Now that Conservative MPs have chosen their two leadership candidates, Theresa May and Andrea Leadsom, the party’s members will decide who will be the UK’s next prime minister. |
| Each of the 150,000 members will have a vote, with the candidates campaigning over the summer. | Each of the 150,000 members will have a vote, with the candidates campaigning over the summer. |
| The result will be announced by 9 September, in time for the Conservative party conference on 2 October, the date David Cameron gave for his successor to be in place when he resigned after the vote to leave the EU. | The result will be announced by 9 September, in time for the Conservative party conference on 2 October, the date David Cameron gave for his successor to be in place when he resigned after the vote to leave the EU. |
| The result date was initially expected to be 2 September but was extended by a week, a decision understood to be linked to Cameron’s desire to attend his last G20 meeting, which takes place in Hangzhou, China, on 4 and 5 September. | The result date was initially expected to be 2 September but was extended by a week, a decision understood to be linked to Cameron’s desire to attend his last G20 meeting, which takes place in Hangzhou, China, on 4 and 5 September. |
| However, with May’s lead so significant among Tory MPs – she won 199 votes to Leadsom’s 84 – and the post-Brexit volatility in the markets, many MPs say they are keen to install a prime minister much quicker than September. | However, with May’s lead so significant among Tory MPs – she won 199 votes to Leadsom’s 84 – and the post-Brexit volatility in the markets, many MPs say they are keen to install a prime minister much quicker than September. |
| Grant Shapps, the former party co-chair, wrote to the current chairman, Andrew Feldman, on Wednesday, asking him to consider significantly shortening the process given that MPs had decided on the final two candidates in less than a week. | Grant Shapps, the former party co-chair, wrote to the current chairman, Andrew Feldman, on Wednesday, asking him to consider significantly shortening the process given that MPs had decided on the final two candidates in less than a week. |
| Here is Shapps letter. Rumour is that Feldman said 9 sept so PM & Osborne cd go to G20 in sept. pic.twitter.com/vYEM1hZ6QH | Here is Shapps letter. Rumour is that Feldman said 9 sept so PM & Osborne cd go to G20 in sept. pic.twitter.com/vYEM1hZ6QH |
| “This country desperately needs post-Brexit direction in order to avoid a political vacuum bearing serious consequences for all those we represent,” wrote Shapps, who is understood to be gathering cross-party support for the fast-tracked process. | “This country desperately needs post-Brexit direction in order to avoid a political vacuum bearing serious consequences for all those we represent,” wrote Shapps, who is understood to be gathering cross-party support for the fast-tracked process. |
| In order to vote, Conservative members must have joined at least three months before voting closes in September. It means the contest is unlikely to see a significant number of “entryists” signing up to vote for the Tory leadership to skew the result. | In order to vote, Conservative members must have joined at least three months before voting closes in September. It means the contest is unlikely to see a significant number of “entryists” signing up to vote for the Tory leadership to skew the result. |
| Votes are given to fully paid-up members only; nothing similar to Labour’s £3 supporter scheme exists for the Conservatives. | Votes are given to fully paid-up members only; nothing similar to Labour’s £3 supporter scheme exists for the Conservatives. |
| Membership decides | Membership decides |
| As both Conservative and Labour MPs know from recent experience, when members have the final say on who leads the party, you never quite know what’s going to happen. Labour, of course, have the most dramatic example of this: Jeremy Corbyn only just made it on to the ballot with the necessary 35 nominations from fellow MPs but then obliterated his three opponents in the members’ vote. | As both Conservative and Labour MPs know from recent experience, when members have the final say on who leads the party, you never quite know what’s going to happen. Labour, of course, have the most dramatic example of this: Jeremy Corbyn only just made it on to the ballot with the necessary 35 nominations from fellow MPs but then obliterated his three opponents in the members’ vote. |
| The Conservatives limit members’ choices slightly more – under revamped rules introduced under William Hague in 1998, MPs whittle down the roster of candidates to a final two, from whom the members then decide. But both elections since have produced surprises, with the Tory membership not always agreeing with the MPs’ verdict. | The Conservatives limit members’ choices slightly more – under revamped rules introduced under William Hague in 1998, MPs whittle down the roster of candidates to a final two, from whom the members then decide. But both elections since have produced surprises, with the Tory membership not always agreeing with the MPs’ verdict. |
| In 2001 Iain Duncan Smith was never the first choice of MPs in three rounds of voting, losing out twice to Michael Portillo and then to Kenneth Clarke. What had begun as a presumed Portillo coronation ended up with the former defence secretary not even making the final two. Faced with a choice of the rumpled and resoundingly pro-Europe Clarke and the harder-edged approach of Duncan Smith, the faithful voted overwhelmingly for the latter, with difficult results. | In 2001 Iain Duncan Smith was never the first choice of MPs in three rounds of voting, losing out twice to Michael Portillo and then to Kenneth Clarke. What had begun as a presumed Portillo coronation ended up with the former defence secretary not even making the final two. Faced with a choice of the rumpled and resoundingly pro-Europe Clarke and the harder-edged approach of Duncan Smith, the faithful voted overwhelmingly for the latter, with difficult results. |
| In 2005, the result was also not as initially billed, though there was less ultimate disconnect between the parliamentary party and members. | In 2005, the result was also not as initially billed, though there was less ultimate disconnect between the parliamentary party and members. |
| David Davis, the pre-contest favourite, narrowly won the first round of MPs’ votes. But as momentum ebbed away after what was regarded as a lacklustre speech to the Conservative party conference earlier in the month, Davis was soundly beaten by David Cameron in the second round, and then in the members’ vote. | David Davis, the pre-contest favourite, narrowly won the first round of MPs’ votes. But as momentum ebbed away after what was regarded as a lacklustre speech to the Conservative party conference earlier in the month, Davis was soundly beaten by David Cameron in the second round, and then in the members’ vote. |
| It remains to be seen whether the current Tory grassroots, seen as staunchly pro-Brexit, will embrace May, who was part of the remain camp, albeit a semi-detached member. In contrast, both Michael Gove, who lost to the other two MPs on Thursday, and Leadsom were clearly in favour of leaving the EU. | It remains to be seen whether the current Tory grassroots, seen as staunchly pro-Brexit, will embrace May, who was part of the remain camp, albeit a semi-detached member. In contrast, both Michael Gove, who lost to the other two MPs on Thursday, and Leadsom were clearly in favour of leaving the EU. |
| A poll of party activists by the Conservative Home website previously found Leadsom and May almost neck and neck, with Gove lagging, although a YouGov poll of members for the Times saw May, the home secretary, having a clear lead over both. | A poll of party activists by the Conservative Home website previously found Leadsom and May almost neck and neck, with Gove lagging, although a YouGov poll of members for the Times saw May, the home secretary, having a clear lead over both. |