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Six things we know about the race to be Tory party leader - and PM Six things we know about the race to be Tory party leader – and PM
(35 minutes later)
1. The next prime minister will be a woman1. The next prime minister will be a woman
Apologies for stating the obvious, but the Conservative leader due to be announced on Friday 9 September will be only the second woman to serve as prime minister of the UK. The UK and Scottish governments and the Welsh assembly will all have female leaders at the same time. And, if Hillary Clinton becomes US president, then, along with Germany’s Angela Merkel, three of the G7 leaders will be women – another first.Apologies for stating the obvious, but the Conservative leader due to be announced on Friday 9 September will be only the second woman to serve as prime minister of the UK. The UK and Scottish governments and the Welsh assembly will all have female leaders at the same time. And, if Hillary Clinton becomes US president, then, along with Germany’s Angela Merkel, three of the G7 leaders will be women – another first.
2. And the next prime minister is likely to be Theresa May2. And the next prime minister is likely to be Theresa May
The home secretary goes into the contest as the clear favourite. With 199 votes, May won the support of 60% of MPs. She is vastly more experienced than Andrea Leadsom and she is attracting significant support from Tories who voted to leave the EU, as well as those who, like her, voted to remain. A YouGov poll of Conservative members earlier this week put her well ahead of Leadsom. The home secretary goes into the contest as the clear favourite. With 199 votes, May won the support of 60% of MPs. She is vastly more experienced than Andrea Leadsom and she is attracting significant support from Tories who voted to leave the EU, as well as those who, like her, voted to remain. A YouGov poll of Conservative members this week put her well ahead of Leadsom.
3. But Andrea Leadsom has a real chance of winning3. But Andrea Leadsom has a real chance of winning
Over the last two days Leadsom has received quite a lot of hostile press coverage, including from rightwing papers such as the Daily Mail and the Times, mostly about the fact that her City career does not seem to have been quite as high-powered as people assumed. But this does not seem to have cost her much support in the Commons. (I’m sad to report that Tory MPs obviously don’t take any notice of my blog.) Leadsom received 84 votes, 18 more than last time. More significantly, there is some evidence that her popularity is soaring among grassroots members. Although the YouGov figures show May well ahead of her among the membership, a ConservativeHome survey of party members this week showed her narrowly ahead of May. Over the last two days Leadsom has received quite a lot of hostile press coverage, including from rightwing papers such as the Daily Mail and the Times, mostly about the fact that her City career does not seem to have been quite as high-powered as people assumed. But this does not seem to have cost her much support in the Commons. (I’m sad to report that Tory MPs obviously don’t take any notice of my blog.) Leadsom received 84 votes, 18 more than last time. More significantly, there is some evidence that her popularity is soaring among grassroots members. Although the YouGov figures show May well ahead of her among the membership, a ConservativeHome survey of party members this week put her narrowly ahead of May.
This was a survey, not a poll, and as such is likely to be less reliable. Tory insiders believe it overstated Leadsom’s support because Eurosceptic activists were probably more likely to take part in the survey than May-leaning armchair moderates. But they also believe that the trend it has identified – a surge towards Leadsom – is real.This was a survey, not a poll, and as such is likely to be less reliable. Tory insiders believe it overstated Leadsom’s support because Eurosceptic activists were probably more likely to take part in the survey than May-leaning armchair moderates. But they also believe that the trend it has identified – a surge towards Leadsom – is real.
4. Leadsom has two big advantages - and May might end up having to attack her inexperience to overcome them 4. Leadsom has two big advantages – and May might end up having to attack her inexperience to overcome them
Leadsom’s plus points are: Leadsom’s plus points are: a) she is the most anti-Europe candidate, and b) she is relatively new. In most of the Tory leadership contests anyone can remember, the winner tended to be the relative newcomer with the most Eurosceptic pitch. This is particularly true of the only two previous contests that involved all-member votes: 2001, when Iain Duncan Smith beat Ken Clarke; and 2005, when David Cameron beat David Davis. (Cameron is not more Eurosceptic than Davis now, but at the time he committed to taking the Tories out of the federalist EPP group in the European parliament.)
In most of the Tory leadership contests anyone can remember the winner tended to be the relative newcomer with the most Eurosceptic pitch. This is particularly true of the only two previous contests which involved all-member votes: 2001, which saw Iain Duncan Smith beat Ken Clarke; and 2005, when David Cameron beat David Davis. (Cameron is not more Eurosceptic than Davis now, but at the time he committed to taking the Tories out of the federalist EPP group in the European parliament.) But this is the first all-member ballot to elect a prime minister, rather than just an opposition leader, and therefore it will be surprising if May does not end up stressing the dangers of electing someone so inexperienced. But this is the first all-member ballot to elect a prime minister rather than an opposition leader, and therefore it will be surprising if May does not end up stressing the dangers of electing someone so inexperienced.
5. Michael Gove has paid a heavy price for his treachery5. Michael Gove has paid a heavy price for his treachery
It was a week ago today when the justice secretary announced he was no longer supporting Boris Johnson as a leadership candidate, and was standing himself instead. Until that point the prospects of the Johnson/Gove ticket winning the leadership seemed very high indeed. But as of Thursday’s vote, all that’s left of that are Gove’s 46 votes – a mere 14% of the parliamentary party. Gove was clearly being punished for disloyalty to his sometime friend. Interestingly, Gove actually lost two votes since Tuesday, possibly because his ally Nick Boles was caught trying to hobble the Leadsom campaign. It was a week ago today that the justice secretary announced he was no longer supporting Boris Johnson as a leadership candidate, and was standing himself instead. Until that point the prospects of the Johnson/Gove ticket winning the leadership seemed very high indeed. But as of Thursday’s vote, all that’s left of that are Gove’s 46 votes – a mere 14% of the parliamentary party. Gove was clearly being punished for disloyalty to his sometime friend. Interestingly, Gove actually lost two votes since Tuesday, possibly because his ally Nick Boles was caught trying to hobble the Leadsom campaign.
6. There will be intense interest in discovering whether ‘insurgency fever’ has gripped the Tory membership6. There will be intense interest in discovering whether ‘insurgency fever’ has gripped the Tory membership
In the past, members have picked novice anti-Europeans as their leader. But this election is taking place against the backdrop of a general election victory last year, not a general election defeat, and it is hard to detect an appetite for radical change in the party. Also, members will be electing a prime minister. But the election of Jeremy Corbyn as Labour leader last year showed just how easy it is now for a candidate backed by a grassroots insurgency to beat a stuffy establishment rival. There is a limit to how far one can push the Leadsom/Corbyn parallel – she is a minister with mainstream backing, Corbyn was a maverick backbencher until being elected leader – but they are both “change” candidates, with enthusiastic backing from outside the party (Ukip and the Greens respectively). If the Tory membership has become Kipperish in recent years, May will be in trouble. In the past, members have picked novice anti-Europeans as their leader. But this election is taking place against the backdrop of a general election victory last year, not a general election defeat, and it is hard to detect an appetite for radical change in the party. Also, members will be electing a prime minister. But the election of Jeremy Corbyn as Labour leader last year showed just how easy it is now for a candidate backed by a grassroots insurgency to beat a stuffy establishment rival.
There is a limit to how far one can push the Leadsom/Corbyn parallel – she is a minister with mainstream backing; Corbyn was a maverick backbencher until being elected leader – but they are both “change” candidates, with enthusiastic backing from outside the party (Ukip and the Greens respectively). If the Tory membership has become Kipperish in recent years, May will be in trouble.