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Australian election count: everything that could possibly happen now Australian election count: everything that could possibly happen now
(35 minutes later)
At the moment we have called 72 seats for the Coalition, 66 for Labor and 5 for others. We believe that Gilmore is almost certain to go to the Liberal party and Cowan to go to Labor. At the moment we have called 72 seats for the Coalition, 66 for Labor and five for others. We believe Gilmore is almost certain to go to the Liberal party and Cowan to go to Labor.
If Gilmore and Cowan go as expected, that leaves the Coalition three seats short of a majority, with five seats left in play.These five are:If Gilmore and Cowan go as expected, that leaves the Coalition three seats short of a majority, with five seats left in play.These five are:
These are the possible outcomes:These are the possible outcomes:
Labor wins all five - 73 Coalition, 72 Labor, 5 others Labor wins all five – 73 Coalition, 72 Labor, 5 others
The Coalition is only one seat ahead of Labor. The Coalition either needs the support of three crossbenchers, or Labor needs the support of four. The Coalition is only one seat ahead of Labor. The Coalition needs the support of three crossbenchers, or Labor needs the support of four.
Related: Who’s up for another election in eight weeks’ time? | Dominic KnightRelated: Who’s up for another election in eight weeks’ time? | Dominic Knight
Bob Katter has clearly indicated that he will support the Coalition and Adam Bandt has likewise telegraphed support for Labor. So the Coalition needs to win over two out of Andrew Wilkie, Cathy McGowan and Rebekha Sharkie to have a majority. Labor would need all three. And Wilkie said on Friday there is “no conceivable way” Labor would govern. Bob Katter has clearly indicated he will support the Coalition and Adam Bandt has likewise telegraphed support for Labor. So the Coalition needs to win over two out of Andrew Wilkie, Cathy McGowan and Rebekha Sharkie to have a majority. Labor would need all three. And Wilkie said on Friday there was “no conceivable way” Labor would govern.
Labor wins four - 74 Coalition, 71 Labor, 5 others Labor wins four – 74 Coalition, 71 Labor, 5 others
At this point the Coalition is the only viable government, but not particularly stable.Bob Katter’s conditional support gives them half the seats, and one more gives them a majority - but only a slender 75-74 majority once the government elects a speaker.If the Coalition can get guarantees from Wilkie, McGowan and Sharkie to not vote for no confidence then the government would have a 77-72 majority, but this wouldn’t apply to ordinary legislation. At this point the Coalition is the only viable government, but not particularly stable.Bob Katter’s conditional support gives them half the seats, and one more gives them a majority – but only a slender 75-74 majority once the government elects a speaker.If the Coalition can get guarantees from Wilkie, McGowan and Sharkie to support the government in a confidence vote, it would have a 77-72 majority, but their vote could not be guaranteed for ordinary legislation.
Labor wins three - 75 Coalition, 70 Labor, 5 others Labor wins three – 75 Coalition, 70 Labor, 5 others
The Coalition has half the seats, and the support of Katter gives them a majority, but a very precarious majority - it would still make sense to seek out the support of more crossbenchers. The Coalition has half the seats, and the support of Katter gives them a majority, but a very precarious majority – it would still make sense to seek out the support of more crossbenchers.
Coalition wins three - 76 Coalition, 69 Labor, 5 others Coalition wins three – 76 Coalition, 69 Labor, 5 others
The Coalition has a majority in their own right. Theoretically they don’t need any assurances of support from crossbenchers and should be able to pass legislation through the House of Representatives - as long as nothing goes wrong.A political defection, or a death, or a political scandal forcing a Coalition MP onto the crossbench, will leave the government vulnerable and unable to govern. The Coalition has a majority in its own right. Theoretically it needs no assurances of support from crossbenchers and should be able to pass legislation through the House of Representatives – as long as nothing goes wrong.A political defection, or a death, or a scandal forcing a Coalition MP onto the crossbench, would leave the government vulnerable.
Coalition wins four - 77 Coalition, 68 Labor, 5 others Coalition wins four – 77 Coalition, 68 Labor, 5 others
The Turnbull government will be a bit more stable now, and will require more than one shock event to be less than stable, but any rebellions on his backbench could hurt. The Turnbull government will be a bit more stable now, and will require more than one shock event to be less than stable, but any rebellions on his backbench could still hurt.
Coalition wins five - 78 Coalition, 67 Labor, 5 others Coalition wins five – 78 Coalition, 67 Labor, 5 others
This is the best-case scenario for the Coalition, and would likely result in fairly conventional Coalition control of the lower house. It should be noted that even in this scenario the Coalition is a long way short of a majority in a joint sitting. If the legislation which was used to trigger the double dissolution is reintroduced, passed by a Coalition majority House and blocked by the Senate, a joint sitting can be called. 114 votes are needed to pass legislation at this sitting. The best-case scenario for the Coalition would see them win 31 seats in the Senate, which leaves them five votes short of a joint sitting majority. This is the best-case scenario for the Coalition, and would likely result in fairly conventional Coalition control of the lower house. It should be noted that even in this scenario the Coalition is a long way short of a majority in a joint sitting. If the legislation which was used to trigger the double dissolution was reintroduced, passed by a Coalition majority House and blocked by the Senate, a joint sitting could be called. It would need 114 votes to pass legislation at this sitting. The Coalition can win 31 seats at best in the Senate, which would leaves it five votes short of a joint sitting majority.