This article is from the source 'guardian' and was first published or seen on . It last changed over 40 days ago and won't be checked again for changes.
You can find the current article at its original source at https://www.theguardian.com/business/live/2016/jul/08/pound-steadies-as-markets-await-key-us-jobs-report-business-live
The article has changed 15 times. There is an RSS feed of changes available.
| Version 2 | Version 3 |
|---|---|
| Pound steadies as markets await key US jobs report - business live | Pound steadies as markets await key US jobs report - business live |
| (35 minutes later) | |
| 9.33am BST | |
| 09:33 | |
| Breaking: UK trade deficit widens in May | |
| The UK trade in goods deficit widened slightly in May, to £9.9bn from £9.4bn in April. | |
| The figure for April was a downward revision from an earlier estimate of a £10.5bn goods deficit. | |
| 9.29am BST | |
| 09:29 | |
| Connor Campbell, analyst at Spreadex, has a take on the markets this morning: | |
| It was a fairly typical start to a non-farm Friday for the European indices, which have little to occupy themselves with until this afternoon’s US data dump. | |
| At most rising by 10 points the FTSE continued to hover around the 6550 mark this morning, that level having become the UK index’s safe space for much of the week. | |
| The pound was similarly settled (it’s all relative) at the start of Friday, trading just above $1.29 against dollar and €1.165 against the euro. | |
| 9.22am BST | |
| 09:22 | |
| UK trade data is coming up. The goods deficit with the rest of the world is expected to widen slightly to £10.65bn in May from £10.52bn in April. | |
| The figures should be out at 9.30. | |
| 9.10am BST | |
| 09:10 | |
| German exports take a dive in May | |
| German exports fell at the sharpest rate in nine months in May. | |
| It was an unexpected drop, and a weaker than expected rise in exports was another sign that demand is slowing in Europe’s largest economy. | |
| Exports fell by 1.8% over the month, following a 0.1% rise in April. Imports increased by 0.1%, so Germany’s trade balance narrowed to €22.1bn from €24.1bn in April. | |
| Carsten Brzeski, economist at ING, says it tops off a bad week for Germany, both in economic and footballing terms... | |
| Another indicator signalling that Germany’s performance is currently not champion-like. | |
| Today’s trade data mark the end of a disappointing week for the German industry. All May data point to a sharp slowdown of the German industry. | |
| Probably the entire batch of industrial data will not get the attention it deserves. Germany will be mainly busy digesting and analysing its own exit; the exit from the Euro2016, the European Soccer Championships. | |
| However, to offer some solace: if there is any economic impact from soccer, last night’s result was the best possible outcome for the eurozone: stimulus and psychological support for France, while at the same time Germany can still feel superior. | |
| Updated | |
| at 9.12am BST | |
| 8.39am BST | 8.39am BST |
| 08:39 | 08:39 |
| Markets are steady this morning, with no big lurches in the pound or equities. | Markets are steady this morning, with no big lurches in the pound or equities. |
| But European shares are on track for their worst week in five months. Following a rebound in the week immediately after the Brexit vote, investors appear to have taken a step back this week. | But European shares are on track for their worst week in five months. Following a rebound in the week immediately after the Brexit vote, investors appear to have taken a step back this week. |
| Michael Hewson, chief market analyst at CMC Markets UK, says that some harsh realities have been sinking in: | Michael Hewson, chief market analyst at CMC Markets UK, says that some harsh realities have been sinking in: |
| It’s been a strange week for equity markets with heavy falls for European markets reversing a lot of the gains that we saw in the week post Brexit, though US markets and the FTSE100 have stood out as outperforming, and managing to hang on to a good proportion of their gains thus far this week. | It’s been a strange week for equity markets with heavy falls for European markets reversing a lot of the gains that we saw in the week post Brexit, though US markets and the FTSE100 have stood out as outperforming, and managing to hang on to a good proportion of their gains thus far this week. |
| Having got caught up in the euphoria of the prospect of lower for a lot longer interest rates, investors forgot about the vulnerability of the European banking system and its sclerotic banks and soon saw the error of their ways, smashing the Italian banking sector, as well as Swiss giants UBS and Credit Suisse and German giant Deutsche Bank to new record all-time lows. | Having got caught up in the euphoria of the prospect of lower for a lot longer interest rates, investors forgot about the vulnerability of the European banking system and its sclerotic banks and soon saw the error of their ways, smashing the Italian banking sector, as well as Swiss giants UBS and Credit Suisse and German giant Deutsche Bank to new record all-time lows. |
| 8.22am BST | 8.22am BST |
| 08:22 | 08:22 |
| European markets open roughly flat | European markets open roughly flat |
| Markets are not exactly off to a flying start this morning, as investors await the main event of the day from the US at 1.30pm (UK time), when the June payrolls report will be published. | Markets are not exactly off to a flying start this morning, as investors await the main event of the day from the US at 1.30pm (UK time), when the June payrolls report will be published. |
| The FTSE 100 is up 8 points. | The FTSE 100 is up 8 points. |
| 8.10am BST | 8.10am BST |
| 08:10 | 08:10 |
| UK consumer confidence plunges | UK consumer confidence plunges |
| A report published overnight shows consumer sentiment has taken a hammering in the aftermath of the Brexit vote. | A report published overnight shows consumer sentiment has taken a hammering in the aftermath of the Brexit vote. |
| GfK’s long-running index of consumer confidence dropped eight points to -9 in a special report to measure sentiment after the vote. | GfK’s long-running index of consumer confidence dropped eight points to -9 in a special report to measure sentiment after the vote. |
| It was the sharpest drop in 21 years. A breakdown of responses showed that people who voted to remain in the EU were feeling the least confident, at -13, while leavers were less pessimistic at -5. | It was the sharpest drop in 21 years. A breakdown of responses showed that people who voted to remain in the EU were feeling the least confident, at -13, while leavers were less pessimistic at -5. |
| GfK noted a fall across all the survey’s key indicators, including the outlook for household finances and people’s appetite for splashing out on major purchases. | GfK noted a fall across all the survey’s key indicators, including the outlook for household finances and people’s appetite for splashing out on major purchases. |
| Joe Staton, head of market dynamics at GfK: | Joe Staton, head of market dynamics at GfK: |
| In these extraordinary times this one-off Brexit special gauges the temperature of consumer confidence right now. | In these extraordinary times this one-off Brexit special gauges the temperature of consumer confidence right now. |
| During this period of uncertainty, we’ve seen a very significant drop in confidence, as is clear from the fact that every one of our key measures has fallen, with the biggest decrease occurring in the outlook for the general economic situation in the next 12 months. | During this period of uncertainty, we’ve seen a very significant drop in confidence, as is clear from the fact that every one of our key measures has fallen, with the biggest decrease occurring in the outlook for the general economic situation in the next 12 months. |
| Read our full story on the report here: | Read our full story on the report here: |
| Related: Brexit vote batters consumer confidence | Related: Brexit vote batters consumer confidence |
| 7.50am BST | 7.50am BST |
| 07:50 | 07:50 |
| The agenda: US payrolls and UK trade | The agenda: US payrolls and UK trade |
| Good morning, and welcome to our rolling coverage of the world economy, the financial markets, the eurozone and business. | Good morning, and welcome to our rolling coverage of the world economy, the financial markets, the eurozone and business. |
| The main focus of the day is the US payrolls report for June. | The main focus of the day is the US payrolls report for June. |
| The report has particular significance this month following an absolute shocker last month, when it emerged the number of jobs added in May was just 38,000. Economists were expecting a 164,000 increase in jobs... | The report has particular significance this month following an absolute shocker last month, when it emerged the number of jobs added in May was just 38,000. Economists were expecting a 164,000 increase in jobs... |
| It was the weakest growth in jobs since September 2010, and the numbers for March and April were also revised down. | It was the weakest growth in jobs since September 2010, and the numbers for March and April were also revised down. |
| Related: US economy adds paltry 38,000 jobs in May for weakest growth since 2010 | Related: US economy adds paltry 38,000 jobs in May for weakest growth since 2010 |
| Investors will be looking for improvement in today’s numbers, and hoping the sharp slowdown in May was just a blip. Economists polled by Reuters are forecasting a 175,000 increase in payrolls in June. | Investors will be looking for improvement in today’s numbers, and hoping the sharp slowdown in May was just a blip. Economists polled by Reuters are forecasting a 175,000 increase in payrolls in June. |
| If the number comes in strong, the expectation will be that the Federal Reserve will raise rates sooner rather than later, possibly in September. | If the number comes in strong, the expectation will be that the Federal Reserve will raise rates sooner rather than later, possibly in September. |
| Another shockingly weak number would raise concerns that a worrying trend is emerging in the US labour market, putting a rate rise off the table for the time being. | Another shockingly weak number would raise concerns that a worrying trend is emerging in the US labour market, putting a rate rise off the table for the time being. |
| The Fed is, of course, weighing up other factors, not least what impact Britain’s decision to leave the EU will have on the US economy. | The Fed is, of course, weighing up other factors, not least what impact Britain’s decision to leave the EU will have on the US economy. |
| Meanwhile the pound is settled at the moment, hovering around $1.29 and currently at $1.2934. | Meanwhile the pound is settled at the moment, hovering around $1.29 and currently at $1.2934. |
| Also coming up today we have UK trade data for May. Although it covers the period before the referendum on 23 June, it will serve as a timely reminder of Britain’s current trade position with the rest of the world. | Also coming up today we have UK trade data for May. Although it covers the period before the referendum on 23 June, it will serve as a timely reminder of Britain’s current trade position with the rest of the world. |
| The IMF will publish its latest take on the eurozone at 2pm UK time. | The IMF will publish its latest take on the eurozone at 2pm UK time. |
| We will bring you all the latest developments as they happen. | We will bring you all the latest developments as they happen. |