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| What to Expect From the June Jobs Report | What to Expect From the June Jobs Report |
| (about 1 hour later) | |
| At 8:30 a.m. Eastern time, the Labor Department will report the latest figures on hiring and unemployment in June. | At 8:30 a.m. Eastern time, the Labor Department will report the latest figures on hiring and unemployment in June. |
| After a disheartening jobs report in May that showed meager payroll growth of just 38,000, economists are watching the latest numbers to see if that low total was an uncharacteristic blip or a sign of a sustained slowdown in the labor market. | After a disheartening jobs report in May that showed meager payroll growth of just 38,000, economists are watching the latest numbers to see if that low total was an uncharacteristic blip or a sign of a sustained slowdown in the labor market. |
| Wall Street is looking for employers to add about 180,000 jobs — with the understanding that 35,000 of those represent the striking Verizon workers who were missing from the May count but have subsequently returned to their jobs. | Wall Street is looking for employers to add about 180,000 jobs — with the understanding that 35,000 of those represent the striking Verizon workers who were missing from the May count but have subsequently returned to their jobs. |
| The official unemployment rate, which is based on a separate survey of households, is expected to tick up to 4.8 percent, from 4.7 percent in May. | The official unemployment rate, which is based on a separate survey of households, is expected to tick up to 4.8 percent, from 4.7 percent in May. |
| This is what you should watch for: | This is what you should watch for: |
| This jobs report is the last one before the Republican and Democratic conventions take place later this month, so it will cue up the economic messages that both parties are looking to deliver. A strong number will undoubtedly be trumpeted by Hillary Clinton as evidence her party is best qualified to steer the economy, while a weak showing would be additional fodder for Donald J. Trump to argue it’s time for a change of party. | This jobs report is the last one before the Republican and Democratic conventions take place later this month, so it will cue up the economic messages that both parties are looking to deliver. A strong number will undoubtedly be trumpeted by Hillary Clinton as evidence her party is best qualified to steer the economy, while a weak showing would be additional fodder for Donald J. Trump to argue it’s time for a change of party. |
| The monthly jobs gain, on average, in 2014 and 2015 reached nearly 240,000. In 2016, that average has fallen to 150,000. But with a jobless rate of 5 percent or less since last fall, some economists argue it is time to redefine what is considered a strong or weak report. | The monthly jobs gain, on average, in 2014 and 2015 reached nearly 240,000. In 2016, that average has fallen to 150,000. But with a jobless rate of 5 percent or less since last fall, some economists argue it is time to redefine what is considered a strong or weak report. |
| “There’s no question that job growth is significantly slower today than it was one or two years ago,” Andrew Chamberlain, chief economist at Glassdoor Economic Research, said. “But that is to be expected at this point in the economic cycle.” | “There’s no question that job growth is significantly slower today than it was one or two years ago,” Andrew Chamberlain, chief economist at Glassdoor Economic Research, said. “But that is to be expected at this point in the economic cycle.” |
| He and other analysts point out that payroll growth of 75,000 to 100,000 is sufficient to keep the unemployment rate from rising. The labor market is still improving, but at a slower pace than last year. | He and other analysts point out that payroll growth of 75,000 to 100,000 is sufficient to keep the unemployment rate from rising. The labor market is still improving, but at a slower pace than last year. |
| The combination of the referendum in Britain to exit the European Union and the anemic hiring in the United States in May means there is pretty much no chance that the June report — no matter how positive — is going to nudge the Federal Reserve to change its stance and lift the benchmark interest rate when it meets later this month. That will, at least, give economists a brief reprieve from the continuous “will they or won’t they” suspense. | The combination of the referendum in Britain to exit the European Union and the anemic hiring in the United States in May means there is pretty much no chance that the June report — no matter how positive — is going to nudge the Federal Reserve to change its stance and lift the benchmark interest rate when it meets later this month. That will, at least, give economists a brief reprieve from the continuous “will they or won’t they” suspense. |
| Some of the anxiety about the economy can be traced to stagnant wages. Finally, the needle has begun to move a bit. | Some of the anxiety about the economy can be traced to stagnant wages. Finally, the needle has begun to move a bit. |
| Average hourly earnings rose 0.2 percent in May for a year-over-year gain of 2.5 percent, a long-awaited bump up in earnings that would ordinarily accompany a tighter labor market. Analysts are expecting a 0.2 percent rise for June. |