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You can find the current article at its original source at https://www.theguardian.com/business/live/2016/jul/11/george-osborne-us-britain-brexit-stock-markets-sterling-business-live
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| Version 8 | Version 9 |
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| US shares hit record high after FTSE 100 enters bull market - as it happened | |
| (about 1 hour later) | |
| 9.12pm BST | |
| 21:12 | |
| That’s all for tonight (although I might pop back and add some front pages later). | |
| Here’s our latest news story about the markets: | |
| Related: FTSE enters bull market as May rival quits and Wall Street surges | |
| Goodnight and thanks for reading and commenting! GW | |
| 9.09pm BST | |
| 21:09 | |
| US stock market hits new record high | |
| And finally tonight.... America’s stock market has hit a new alltime high, as global markets continue their relief rally. | |
| The S&P 500 index closed 7 points higher, or 0.33%, at 2,136.95 points. That narrowly breaches the previous high set in May 2015. | |
| BREAKING: S&P 500 closes at all-time high » https://t.co/My7mEB616n pic.twitter.com/FB5ji9xVhI | |
| Jim Paulsen, chief investment strategist at Wells Capital Management, reckons that traders are feeling more optimistic about the global economy (after last Friday’s decent US employment report). | |
| Paulsen says: | |
| “You have Brexit and global stagnation, but underneath that we keep getting really good economic numbers and that is forcing the (stock) market to new highs.” | |
| The tantalising scent of fresh stimulus packages in Britain and Japan soon also worked its usual magic, of course. | |
| BREAKING: Standard & Poor's 500 index closes at a record high, beating the mark it set in May 2015 . | |
| So, record highs on Wall Street. The London stock market back in bull market territory (thanks to the weak pound) and even Europe shaking off its Brexit fears. | |
| Not a bad day, but also not a reason to think the Brexit crisis is over. | |
| 8.52pm BST | |
| 20:52 | |
| This chart of the FTSE 250 index of smaller UK companies this year shows how it has scrambled back from the Brexit shock last month (red for down, green for up): | |
| Although still off 23/6 close,difficult to currently use FTSE250 as stick to beat on Brexit. Back in pre-poll range: pic.twitter.com/Rzv5zuV0Fn | |
| Updated | |
| at 9.17pm BST | |
| 8.50pm BST | |
| 20:50 | |
| Ken Odeluga, market analyst at trading firm City Index, says companies most focused on the UK got the biggest boost today from Theresa May’s rise to the top. | |
| We believe ‘pure-play’ UK equities have rallied on relief that the more pragmatic, less conspicuously ideological and more experienced candidate has emerged as Britain’s next Prime Minster, ahead of difficult and multi-faceted discussions with a wounded and potentially vengeful EU. | |
| Investors were pleased to focus on political developments, rather than the Bank of England’s promises to cushion the impact of Brexit. | |
| As Odeluga puts it: | |
| We note markets shrugged off revolving doors in the Conservative leadership contest and Labour’s failure to open a trapdoor under its own chief. | |
| It has taken the withdrawal of the last right-leaning Eurosceptic standing, Andrea Leadsom, to raise an unmistakably positive reaction in the City. | |
| 8.10pm BST | 8.10pm BST |
| 20:10 | 20:10 |
| There’s real anticipation in the City tonight about whether the Bank of England will cut interest rates to fresh record lows on Thursday. | There’s real anticipation in the City tonight about whether the Bank of England will cut interest rates to fresh record lows on Thursday. |
| The BoE has already hinted that more stimulus will be needed this summer to help the economy. But given the inflationary impact of a weak pound, it may be reluctant to lower borrowing costs (and weaken sterling further). | The BoE has already hinted that more stimulus will be needed this summer to help the economy. But given the inflationary impact of a weak pound, it may be reluctant to lower borrowing costs (and weaken sterling further). |
| Kallum Pickering says the Bank could decide to leave its powder dry until August, when governor Mark Carney will present the new quarterly inflation report. | Kallum Pickering says the Bank could decide to leave its powder dry until August, when governor Mark Carney will present the new quarterly inflation report. |
| He writes: | He writes: |
| We see a 60% chance that the nine member MPC votes to cut the bank rate, if so, probably by 25 basis points. | We see a 60% chance that the nine member MPC votes to cut the bank rate, if so, probably by 25 basis points. |
| However, there is a chance that the MPC holds for now, and instead opts to send a dovish signal that the bank will ease monetary policy three weeks later at the August Inflation Report when it is due to publish its revised economic forecasts. | However, there is a chance that the MPC holds for now, and instead opts to send a dovish signal that the bank will ease monetary policy three weeks later at the August Inflation Report when it is due to publish its revised economic forecasts. |
| 7.51pm BST | 7.51pm BST |
| 19:51 | 19:51 |
| The pound is getting a late lift tonight, as Theresa May prepares to become Britain’s next prime minister, on Wednesday afternoon. | The pound is getting a late lift tonight, as Theresa May prepares to become Britain’s next prime minister, on Wednesday afternoon. |
| Sterling is hovering just below $1.30, up half a cent today. | Sterling is hovering just below $1.30, up half a cent today. |
| Chris Saint, senior analyst at Hargreaves Lansdown Currency Service, says: | Chris Saint, senior analyst at Hargreaves Lansdown Currency Service, says: |
| Markets will be hopeful that the prospect of Theresa May becoming Prime Minister will soon bring some clarity to the UK political landscape as well as a more conciliatory approach towards Europe. | Markets will be hopeful that the prospect of Theresa May becoming Prime Minister will soon bring some clarity to the UK political landscape as well as a more conciliatory approach towards Europe. |
| May has already insisted, though, that “Brexit means Brexit”, so she’s not hinting at a referendum u-turn... | May has already insisted, though, that “Brexit means Brexit”, so she’s not hinting at a referendum u-turn... |
| And Owen Paterson tells @annabotting "She [may] has said Brexit means Brexit, it had better mean Brexit, because 17m people voted for it" | And Owen Paterson tells @annabotting "She [may] has said Brexit means Brexit, it had better mean Brexit, because 17m people voted for it" |
| 7.26pm BST | 7.26pm BST |
| 19:26 | 19:26 |
| Euro stocks hit highest level since the referendum | Euro stocks hit highest level since the referendum |
| European stock markets have also enjoyed a May-bounce. | European stock markets have also enjoyed a May-bounce. |
| The STOXX Europe 600 .STOXX closed up 1.6% at 332.72, its highest close since June 23. However it is still 4% below its pre-referendum levels, due to concerns that Brexit will hurt the European economy. | The STOXX Europe 600 .STOXX closed up 1.6% at 332.72, its highest close since June 23. However it is still 4% below its pre-referendum levels, due to concerns that Brexit will hurt the European economy. |
| The news that Theresa May would replace David Cameron on Wednesday seemed to bring relief to European trading floors. | The news that Theresa May would replace David Cameron on Wednesday seemed to bring relief to European trading floors. |
| Ankit Gheedia, equity and derivative strategist at BNP Paribas, reckoned that May was a safer pair of hands than Andrea Leadsom (who stepped down from the leadership race today) | Ankit Gheedia, equity and derivative strategist at BNP Paribas, reckoned that May was a safer pair of hands than Andrea Leadsom (who stepped down from the leadership race today) |
| “The difference between Theresa May and her counterpart was that she has a disciplined approach and a proper strategy for Brexit. The alternative was uncertain. | “The difference between Theresa May and her counterpart was that she has a disciplined approach and a proper strategy for Brexit. The alternative was uncertain. |
| “We know she has experience, and is a bit more strategic, so the market is relieved on the back of that.” | “We know she has experience, and is a bit more strategic, so the market is relieved on the back of that.” |
| (Thanks to Reuters for the quotes) | (Thanks to Reuters for the quotes) |
| 6.46pm BST | 6.46pm BST |
| 18:46 | 18:46 |
| Some late newsflashes from Brussels, where eurozone finance ministers have been meeting. | Some late newsflashes from Brussels, where eurozone finance ministers have been meeting. |
| Jeroen Dijsselbloem, head of the Eurogroup, says the Brexit vote is hurting eurozone confidence: | Jeroen Dijsselbloem, head of the Eurogroup, says the Brexit vote is hurting eurozone confidence: |
| First #eurogroup meeting since UK referendum. Euro area recovery is robust, heightened uncertainty is detrimental to economic activity | First #eurogroup meeting since UK referendum. Euro area recovery is robust, heightened uncertainty is detrimental to economic activity |
| And European commissioner Pierre Moscovici has revealed that the EC is dialling down its growth forecasts for the UK and the eurozone next year: | And European commissioner Pierre Moscovici has revealed that the EC is dialling down its growth forecasts for the UK and the eurozone next year: |
| @pierremoscovici: Growth could be 1-2,5% lower in UK and 0,2-0,5% lower in eurozone after brexit-vote. No forecast, preliminary assessment. | @pierremoscovici: Growth could be 1-2,5% lower in UK and 0,2-0,5% lower in eurozone after brexit-vote. No forecast, preliminary assessment. |
| 6.04pm BST | 6.04pm BST |
| 18:04 | 18:04 |
| The global rally in shares today has sent America’s S&P 500 index to a record high today: | The global rally in shares today has sent America’s S&P 500 index to a record high today: |
| Fawad Razaqzada, market analyst at Forex.com, believes the S&P 500 will keep climbing: | Fawad Razaqzada, market analyst at Forex.com, believes the S&P 500 will keep climbing: |
| So, the S&P 500 is rallying to fresh unchartered territories today. Where do we go from here? Well, the monthly chart suggests onwards and upwards. | So, the S&P 500 is rallying to fresh unchartered territories today. Where do we go from here? Well, the monthly chart suggests onwards and upwards. |
| 5.57pm BST | 5.57pm BST |
| 17:57 | 17:57 |
| America’s tech index has hit its highest level of the year: | America’s tech index has hit its highest level of the year: |
| BREAKING: NASDAQ Composite rises above 5,000 for the first time this year https://t.co/My7mEAOqeP pic.twitter.com/vO4U6vTxEp | BREAKING: NASDAQ Composite rises above 5,000 for the first time this year https://t.co/My7mEAOqeP pic.twitter.com/vO4U6vTxEp |
| 5.45pm BST | 5.45pm BST |
| 17:45 | 17:45 |
| Theresa May helped to push shares higher | Theresa May helped to push shares higher |
| The FTSE 100 burst into Bull Market territory moments before Theresa May was crowned as the new leader of the Conservative Party. | The FTSE 100 burst into Bull Market territory moments before Theresa May was crowned as the new leader of the Conservative Party. |
| May will become prime minister on Wednesday, and investors have welcomed this sudden outbreak of certainty in UK politics. | May will become prime minister on Wednesday, and investors have welcomed this sudden outbreak of certainty in UK politics. |
| Laith Khalaf, senior analyst at Hargreaves Lansdown, says shares are also benefiting from expectations of an interest rate cut on Thursday. | Laith Khalaf, senior analyst at Hargreaves Lansdown, says shares are also benefiting from expectations of an interest rate cut on Thursday. |
| Here’s his take: | Here’s his take: |
| ‘The Footsie has been tipped into a bull market by the emergence of Theresa May as Prime Minister, though the whiff of some loose monetary policy coming from the Bank of England this Thursday probably helped the index over the line too. | ‘The Footsie has been tipped into a bull market by the emergence of Theresa May as Prime Minister, though the whiff of some loose monetary policy coming from the Bank of England this Thursday probably helped the index over the line too. |
| The role played by the commodity behemoths should not be under-estimated either, these stocks are now trading at much higher prices than in the depths of the market in February. | The role played by the commodity behemoths should not be under-estimated either, these stocks are now trading at much higher prices than in the depths of the market in February. |
| The Tories may be starting to get their house in order, but the stock market has hardly followed in the mould of the one-nation conservatism espoused by the party. There have been very divergent fortunes amongst the big blue chips, with some airlines, house builders and banks being left behind by the rest of the market. | The Tories may be starting to get their house in order, but the stock market has hardly followed in the mould of the one-nation conservatism espoused by the party. There have been very divergent fortunes amongst the big blue chips, with some airlines, house builders and banks being left behind by the rest of the market. |
| Here’s the top risers and fallers on the FTSE 100 tonight: | Here’s the top risers and fallers on the FTSE 100 tonight: |
| 5.38pm BST | 5.38pm BST |
| 17:38 | 17:38 |
| The FTSE 250 used to be the ugly duckling of the City, full of companies not big enough to make the Footsie 100. | The FTSE 250 used to be the ugly duckling of the City, full of companies not big enough to make the Footsie 100. |
| Now, though, it’s blossomed into everyone’s favourite stock market index (or so it feels, anyway). | Now, though, it’s blossomed into everyone’s favourite stock market index (or so it feels, anyway). |
| .@graemewearden @DanielFurrUK Ah but the more important FTSE 250 is only up 11% from its low in February….. pic.twitter.com/6hIrfqQYhW | .@graemewearden @DanielFurrUK Ah but the more important FTSE 250 is only up 11% from its low in February….. pic.twitter.com/6hIrfqQYhW |
| 5.29pm BST | 5.29pm BST |
| 17:29 | 17:29 |
| 4.57pm BST | 4.57pm BST |
| 16:57 | 16:57 |
| London's FTSE 100 hits Bull Market territory | London's FTSE 100 hits Bull Market territory |
| It’s official! Britain’s FTSE 100 index is back in bull market territory. | It’s official! Britain’s FTSE 100 index is back in bull market territory. |
| The blue-chip index of the largest firms listed on the London stock market has just closed 92 points higher tonight, at 6682, a gain of 1.2% today. | The blue-chip index of the largest firms listed on the London stock market has just closed 92 points higher tonight, at 6682, a gain of 1.2% today. |
| That means the Footsie has risen by over 20% since 11 February, when global investors were fretting about China’s slowing economy tipping the world into recession. | That means the Footsie has risen by over 20% since 11 February, when global investors were fretting about China’s slowing economy tipping the world into recession. |
| That was a simpler time, before Brexit became the word on everyone’s lips and British politics entered a period of remarkable upheaval (which ain’t over yet, judging by events in the Labour party today). | That was a simpler time, before Brexit became the word on everyone’s lips and British politics entered a period of remarkable upheaval (which ain’t over yet, judging by events in the Labour party today). |
| LATEST: FTSE 100 enters bull market after rising 20% from its February low https://t.co/takpvt1hZP pic.twitter.com/IDOxKwvdQB | LATEST: FTSE 100 enters bull market after rising 20% from its February low https://t.co/takpvt1hZP pic.twitter.com/IDOxKwvdQB |
| Mining firm Anglo American is the biggest gainer, closing 8.5% higher, followed by building supply firm Travis Perkins (up 7.8%). | Mining firm Anglo American is the biggest gainer, closing 8.5% higher, followed by building supply firm Travis Perkins (up 7.8%). |
| However, this does not mean that Britain’s economy is suddenly rosy. Remember... | However, this does not mean that Britain’s economy is suddenly rosy. Remember... |
| But still, investors will be relieved to see the index up, not down. | But still, investors will be relieved to see the index up, not down. |
| Chris Beauchamp of IG explains that events in Westminster have boosted confidence in the City. | Chris Beauchamp of IG explains that events in Westminster have boosted confidence in the City. |
| UK politics continues to provide the most compelling TV viewing of the year so far, as Teresa May’s last opponent abandons the field. | UK politics continues to provide the most compelling TV viewing of the year so far, as Teresa May’s last opponent abandons the field. |
| The bounce in UK mid-caps is more than partly due to hopes that, with Remainer May as PM, talks with Europe may be smoother, while the disappearance of a summer leadership contest has helped clear road ahead for UK equities. | The bounce in UK mid-caps is more than partly due to hopes that, with Remainer May as PM, talks with Europe may be smoother, while the disappearance of a summer leadership contest has helped clear road ahead for UK equities. |
| Updated | Updated |
| at 4.58pm BST | at 4.58pm BST |
| 4.21pm BST | 4.21pm BST |
| 16:21 | 16:21 |
| Shares in many smaller UK companies are also strongly higher today. | Shares in many smaller UK companies are also strongly higher today. |
| Michael Hewson of CMC Markets explains why: | Michael Hewson of CMC Markets explains why: |
| The FTSE250 has also enjoyed a decent bounce, up nearly 3% hitting its highest levels since its plunge from its 23rd June peaks. This removal of one element from the mix of political uncertainty is likely to bring into sharp relief the next stage of the “Brexit” process and in particular the timings of when Article 50 is likely to get triggered. | The FTSE250 has also enjoyed a decent bounce, up nearly 3% hitting its highest levels since its plunge from its 23rd June peaks. This removal of one element from the mix of political uncertainty is likely to bring into sharp relief the next stage of the “Brexit” process and in particular the timings of when Article 50 is likely to get triggered. |
| However, the FTSE 250 index is still below its pre-referendum levels, unlike the FTSE 100 (which gets that weak pound boost) | However, the FTSE 250 index is still below its pre-referendum levels, unlike the FTSE 100 (which gets that weak pound boost) |
| 3.54pm BST | 3.54pm BST |
| 15:54 | 15:54 |
| Here’s another sign that the Brexit vote has hurt the European economy. | Here’s another sign that the Brexit vote has hurt the European economy. |
| A new survey by Moody’s Analytics reports that: | A new survey by Moody’s Analytics reports that: |
| Global business confidence has slumped in the wake of the Brexit vote in late June. European sentiment continues to sink and is now consistent with an economy that is on the verge of stalling out. | Global business confidence has slumped in the wake of the Brexit vote in late June. European sentiment continues to sink and is now consistent with an economy that is on the verge of stalling out. |
| More than one-fourth of the survey responses by European businesses are negative, the highest that has been on a consistent basis since the European debt crisis. Encouragingly, sentiment in the United States and Pacific Rim haven’t been materially impacted by British exit vote. | More than one-fourth of the survey responses by European businesses are negative, the highest that has been on a consistent basis since the European debt crisis. Encouragingly, sentiment in the United States and Pacific Rim haven’t been materially impacted by British exit vote. |
| Global business confidence has slumped in the wake of the Brexit vote, Moody's Analytics survey finds. https://t.co/wWNdCmexUV | Global business confidence has slumped in the wake of the Brexit vote, Moody's Analytics survey finds. https://t.co/wWNdCmexUV |
| Weak business confidence often leads to lower investment, and less new hiring, so it could be quite damaging.... | Weak business confidence often leads to lower investment, and less new hiring, so it could be quite damaging.... |
| Updated | Updated |
| at 3.56pm BST | at 3.56pm BST |
| 3.45pm BST | 3.45pm BST |
| 15:45 | 15:45 |
| City traders are pleased that at least some of the political uncertainty sitting over Britain like a heavy fog is lifting. | City traders are pleased that at least some of the political uncertainty sitting over Britain like a heavy fog is lifting. |
| Connor Campbell of Spreadex explains: | Connor Campbell of Spreadex explains: |
| Theresa May is clearly the market’s preferred choice for Britain’s top job, as evidenced by the reaction that greeted Leadsom’s stand-down statement. May’s lack of interest in rushing to activate Article 50 and her relatively less contentious relationship with the EU when compared to her (now long gone) rivals, as well as the general cheer at the mere fact of the UK once again having a PM, is arguably responsible for the rise from the FTSE and pound, both of which improved on their morning performances. | Theresa May is clearly the market’s preferred choice for Britain’s top job, as evidenced by the reaction that greeted Leadsom’s stand-down statement. May’s lack of interest in rushing to activate Article 50 and her relatively less contentious relationship with the EU when compared to her (now long gone) rivals, as well as the general cheer at the mere fact of the UK once again having a PM, is arguably responsible for the rise from the FTSE and pound, both of which improved on their morning performances. |
| The former jumped by nearly 1%, sitting firmly at 2016 (and indeed 11 month) highs; the latter, meanwhile, managed to climb away from its earlier lows, even if the currency remains haunted by the spectre of a Bank of England rate cut on Thursday. | The former jumped by nearly 1%, sitting firmly at 2016 (and indeed 11 month) highs; the latter, meanwhile, managed to climb away from its earlier lows, even if the currency remains haunted by the spectre of a Bank of England rate cut on Thursday. |
| 3.13pm BST | 3.13pm BST |
| 15:13 | 15:13 |
| The chancellor is watching events unfold from across the Atlantic, and tweets: | The chancellor is watching events unfold from across the Atlantic, and tweets: |
| Welcome news we have 1 candidate with overwhelming support to be next PM. Theresa May has strength, integrity & determination to do the job | Welcome news we have 1 candidate with overwhelming support to be next PM. Theresa May has strength, integrity & determination to do the job |
| The economy and businesses in UK and around the world need certainty so it is in everyone's interest Theresa takes over as PM in coming days | The economy and businesses in UK and around the world need certainty so it is in everyone's interest Theresa takes over as PM in coming days |
| The FT reckons that foreign secretary Phillip Hammond could become finance minister in Theresa May’s government.... | The FT reckons that foreign secretary Phillip Hammond could become finance minister in Theresa May’s government.... |