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Italy 'facing 20 years of economic woe' | |
(35 minutes later) | |
The IMF has warned that Italy faces two decades of stagnant economic growth. | The IMF has warned that Italy faces two decades of stagnant economic growth. |
Its latest report on the country puts growth this year at under 1%, down from its previous 1.1% estimate, and forecasts growth in 2017 of about 1% - down from a 1.25% estimate. | |
The IMF says Italy will not reach pre-crisis levels until 2025, by which time its neighbours will have economies 20-25% above 2008 levels. | The IMF says Italy will not reach pre-crisis levels until 2025, by which time its neighbours will have economies 20-25% above 2008 levels. |
Italy is the third largest eurozone country. | Italy is the third largest eurozone country. |
It has 11% unemployment and a banking sector in crisis, with government debt second only to that of Greece. | It has 11% unemployment and a banking sector in crisis, with government debt second only to that of Greece. |
The country's banks are under pressure because the long-standing poor economic performance has depressed tax revenue and increased the chances of businesses getting into difficulty and being unable to maintain their loan payments. | The country's banks are under pressure because the long-standing poor economic performance has depressed tax revenue and increased the chances of businesses getting into difficulty and being unable to maintain their loan payments. |
Italian banks are weighed down massive bad debts, and may need a significant injection of funds. | Italian banks are weighed down massive bad debts, and may need a significant injection of funds. |
'Surge' | 'Surge' |
The IMF says any recovery is likely to be prolonged and subject to risks. | The IMF says any recovery is likely to be prolonged and subject to risks. |
Among those risks are the UK's withdrawal from the European Union, which it said last week had prompted it to downgrade its forecasts for growth for the entire eurozone. | Among those risks are the UK's withdrawal from the European Union, which it said last week had prompted it to downgrade its forecasts for growth for the entire eurozone. |
Other problem areas include "the refugee surge, and headwinds from the slowdown in global trade". | Other problem areas include "the refugee surge, and headwinds from the slowdown in global trade". |
The IMF said last week that the eurozone was expected to grow by 1.6% this year and 1.4% in 2017. Before the referendum the IMF had predicted growth of 1.7% for both years. | The IMF said last week that the eurozone was expected to grow by 1.6% this year and 1.4% in 2017. Before the referendum the IMF had predicted growth of 1.7% for both years. |
The IMF also revised down its 2018 growth forecast to 1.6% from 1.7%. | The IMF also revised down its 2018 growth forecast to 1.6% from 1.7%. |