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Brexit recession feared as UK corporate confidence slumps – business live | Brexit recession feared as UK corporate confidence slumps – business live |
(35 minutes later) | |
2.35pm BST | 2.35pm BST |
14:35 | 14:35 |
US shares hit new record highs | |
Boom! The US stock market has hit fresh record highs at the start of trading in New York. | Boom! The US stock market has hit fresh record highs at the start of trading in New York. |
The Dow Jones index reached 18,382 points for the first time, while the S&P 500 index also hit a new intra-day high. | |
Brexit fears seem to have been pushed to one side, for the moment, as traders lick their lips and expect more stimulus measures from the Bank of England and the Bank of Japan. | Brexit fears seem to have been pushed to one side, for the moment, as traders lick their lips and expect more stimulus measures from the Bank of England and the Bank of Japan. |
Updated | |
at 2.46pm BST | |
2.18pm BST | 2.18pm BST |
14:18 | 14:18 |
If he is appointed chancellor, Philip Hammond’s first act will probably be ditching George Osborne’s target of a fiscal surplus by the end of the parliament (once he’s shaken paws with Larry the cat). | |
“Balancing the books” is another casualty of the Brexit vote. With Britain sliding towards recession, the sensible move is to relax fiscal policy and nurse the economy into better health. | “Balancing the books” is another casualty of the Brexit vote. With Britain sliding towards recession, the sensible move is to relax fiscal policy and nurse the economy into better health. |
Some Tories are now talking about borrowing to invest in the future, which is sensible, given that investors will pay to lend to Britain. But it’s quite a turnaround from 2015, when Labour was damned as fiscally irresponsible for such notions. | |
Don't worry: Downing Street's chief mouser remains Larry the cat https://t.co/kKUCwigJ3U pic.twitter.com/M9W8oFy5Bd | Don't worry: Downing Street's chief mouser remains Larry the cat https://t.co/kKUCwigJ3U pic.twitter.com/M9W8oFy5Bd |
Updated | |
at 2.45pm BST | |
2.02pm BST | 2.02pm BST |
14:02 | 14:02 |
George Osborne’s tenure as chancellor may soon be over ... | George Osborne’s tenure as chancellor may soon be over ... |
Philip Hammond expected to be named chancellor by #TheresaMayPM, reports @Peston https://t.co/TSSoHKI44p pic.twitter.com/wa7hMEMljU | Philip Hammond expected to be named chancellor by #TheresaMayPM, reports @Peston https://t.co/TSSoHKI44p pic.twitter.com/wa7hMEMljU |
PHILIP HAMMOND EXPECTED TO BE NAMED U.K. CHANCELLOR, ITV SAYS | PHILIP HAMMOND EXPECTED TO BE NAMED U.K. CHANCELLOR, ITV SAYS |
Updated | Updated |
at 2.44pm BST | at 2.44pm BST |
1.43pm BST | 1.43pm BST |
13:43 | 13:43 |
The pound’s tumble after the Brexit vote last month has come at a very bad time for British holidaymakers. | The pound’s tumble after the Brexit vote last month has come at a very bad time for British holidaymakers. |
Sterling has lost about 10% against the US dollar, hitting a 31-year low. It is down a similar amount against the euro, at €1.197. | Sterling has lost about 10% against the US dollar, hitting a 31-year low. It is down a similar amount against the euro, at €1.197. |
At least, that’s the value on my Reuters terminal. Out in the real world, you’ll get rather less. | At least, that’s the value on my Reuters terminal. Out in the real world, you’ll get rather less. |
Related: £1 buys just €1 in some UK airports | Related: £1 buys just €1 in some UK airports |
Updated | Updated |
at 2.44pm BST | at 2.44pm BST |
1.09pm BST | 1.09pm BST |
13:09 | 13:09 |
UK economy "to shrink 1% in 2017" | UK economy "to shrink 1% in 2017" |
Investment bank Credit Suisse has sounded the alarm, predicting that Britain will slide into recession next year. | Investment bank Credit Suisse has sounded the alarm, predicting that Britain will slide into recession next year. |
Its economics team have predicted that UK GDP will contract by 1% in 2017, as the impact of the Brexit vote hits confidence and business spending. | Its economics team have predicted that UK GDP will contract by 1% in 2017, as the impact of the Brexit vote hits confidence and business spending. |
Credit Suisse said: | Credit Suisse said: |
We fear that, ahead of the referendum, two of the best lead indicators for UK growth – service PMI new orders and vacancy growth – were already consistent with a mild recession. | We fear that, ahead of the referendum, two of the best lead indicators for UK growth – service PMI new orders and vacancy growth – were already consistent with a mild recession. |
This chart shows its forecasts: the two dots showing slowing growth this year, and a contraction next year. | This chart shows its forecasts: the two dots showing slowing growth this year, and a contraction next year. |
And it cites five reasons why: | And it cites five reasons why: |
Other economists are a little less pessimistic, though; the consensus is that the economy will grow by 0.5% in 2017, down from almost 2% before the referendum. | Other economists are a little less pessimistic, though; the consensus is that the economy will grow by 0.5% in 2017, down from almost 2% before the referendum. |
Did something happen? Consensus forecast for 2017 UK growth. pic.twitter.com/qGlX2Fm2Gi | Did something happen? Consensus forecast for 2017 UK growth. pic.twitter.com/qGlX2Fm2Gi |
Updated | Updated |
at 2.34pm BST | at 2.34pm BST |
12.58pm BST | 12.58pm BST |
12:58 | 12:58 |
Phillip Inman | Phillip Inman |
A group of economists who backed the leave campaign have said Theresa May should embrace quitting the single market. | A group of economists who backed the leave campaign have said Theresa May should embrace quitting the single market. |
They argue that this would allow Britain to enjoy the benefits of free trade with Europe and the rest of the world. | They argue that this would allow Britain to enjoy the benefits of free trade with Europe and the rest of the world. |
Economists for Brexit, a group of economists who campaigned for the UK to leave the EU, warned that article 50 negotiations with Brussels to extract concessions for British businesses would be undermined without the real threat of abandoning the EU customs union. | Economists for Brexit, a group of economists who campaigned for the UK to leave the EU, warned that article 50 negotiations with Brussels to extract concessions for British businesses would be undermined without the real threat of abandoning the EU customs union. |
At a press conference held by the 13-strong group at the Institute of Directors in London, Gerald Lyons said an EU-lite policy “would not be the best economically and is likely to disappoint the electorate”. | At a press conference held by the 13-strong group at the Institute of Directors in London, Gerald Lyons said an EU-lite policy “would not be the best economically and is likely to disappoint the electorate”. |
At Economists for Brexit event I'm told all bad things are due to scaremongering and that future is bright (1/2) pic.twitter.com/gJnJQSZlFz | At Economists for Brexit event I'm told all bad things are due to scaremongering and that future is bright (1/2) pic.twitter.com/gJnJQSZlFz |
Updated | Updated |
at 1.18pm BST | at 1.18pm BST |
11.56am BST | 11.56am BST |
11:56 | 11:56 |
One of the UK property funds that banned investors from taking money out after the Brexit vote has lifted the suspension. | One of the UK property funds that banned investors from taking money out after the Brexit vote has lifted the suspension. |
Aberdeen Asset Management announced the move this morning, eight days after being forced to gate its fund after a flood of redemption requests. | Aberdeen Asset Management announced the move this morning, eight days after being forced to gate its fund after a flood of redemption requests. |
It has already cut the value of the fund, which invests in supermarkets, offices and warehouses, by 17%. | It has already cut the value of the fund, which invests in supermarkets, offices and warehouses, by 17%. |
Aberdeen’s chief executive, Martin Gilbert, is warning that the value of the fund could be volatile for a while as the market adjusts to the consequences of Brexit. | Aberdeen’s chief executive, Martin Gilbert, is warning that the value of the fund could be volatile for a while as the market adjusts to the consequences of Brexit. |
Investors should be aware that the price may be adjusted on a daily basis to reflect the fund’s requirement to provide liquidity and the need to protect all investors. | Investors should be aware that the price may be adjusted on a daily basis to reflect the fund’s requirement to provide liquidity and the need to protect all investors. |
Aberdeen, along with several other property trusts, is now trying to sell real estate assets to generate funds to repay investors. It’s a tough market: Sky News reported last night that commercial property prices have fallen by 10%-15%. | Aberdeen, along with several other property trusts, is now trying to sell real estate assets to generate funds to repay investors. It’s a tough market: Sky News reported last night that commercial property prices have fallen by 10%-15%. |
Updated | Updated |
at 2.43pm BST | at 2.43pm BST |
11.42am BST | 11.42am BST |
11:42 | 11:42 |
Will Bank of England give sterling a shunt? | Will Bank of England give sterling a shunt? |
City analysts are predicting that the pound may suffer fresh losses soon, perhaps as early as tomorrow, when the Bank of England announces its decision on UK interest rates. | City analysts are predicting that the pound may suffer fresh losses soon, perhaps as early as tomorrow, when the Bank of England announces its decision on UK interest rates. |
Sterling is currently rising for the fifth day running, but Paresh Davdra of RationalFX reckons that the “Theresa May bounce” might not last long. | Sterling is currently rising for the fifth day running, but Paresh Davdra of RationalFX reckons that the “Theresa May bounce” might not last long. |
Although recent political events have boosted the pound somewhat, it is important to remember that the UK is not out of the woods yet. | Although recent political events have boosted the pound somewhat, it is important to remember that the UK is not out of the woods yet. |
The monetary policy committee decision to take place tomorrow will ultimately determine the short-term future of the currency – a fall in interest rates will, in turn, mean a tumbling pound. With 80% predicting a reduced bank rate tomorrow, it is likely sterling has not yet escaped the Brexit haze. | The monetary policy committee decision to take place tomorrow will ultimately determine the short-term future of the currency – a fall in interest rates will, in turn, mean a tumbling pound. With 80% predicting a reduced bank rate tomorrow, it is likely sterling has not yet escaped the Brexit haze. |
Of course, the Bank of England may decide not to cut interest rates at the moment. | Of course, the Bank of England may decide not to cut interest rates at the moment. |
Jeremy Cook, the chief economist at World First, reckons that the UK’s central bank should hold fire until the consequences of Brexit are clear: | Jeremy Cook, the chief economist at World First, reckons that the UK’s central bank should hold fire until the consequences of Brexit are clear: |
I believe it would be unwise for a CB to fire its remaining rounds with little knowledge or certainty as to the size of the enemy it faces. | I believe it would be unwise for a CB to fire its remaining rounds with little knowledge or certainty as to the size of the enemy it faces. |
That being said, there is merit in heading problems off as soon as practicable | That being said, there is merit in heading problems off as soon as practicable |
Updated | Updated |
at 2.40pm BST | at 2.40pm BST |
10.56am BST | 10.56am BST |
10:56 | 10:56 |
More drama in the bond market. Britain has sold more than £1bn of inflation-linked bonds at a negative interest rate. | More drama in the bond market. Britain has sold more than £1bn of inflation-linked bonds at a negative interest rate. |
Here’s the proof: | Here’s the proof: |
UK govt just sold £1.25bn of 10yr index linked (eg inflation proof) bonds at an interest rate of -1.578%Yes, minus pic.twitter.com/0A4ZwKl2Aj | UK govt just sold £1.25bn of 10yr index linked (eg inflation proof) bonds at an interest rate of -1.578%Yes, minus pic.twitter.com/0A4ZwKl2Aj |
As with Germany’s bond sale, it means that investors are worried about growth prospects and don’t fancy putting their money into riskier assets. | As with Germany’s bond sale, it means that investors are worried about growth prospects and don’t fancy putting their money into riskier assets. |
OK, it also means that they don’t expect Britain to default. But that’s never a realistic danger, as the UK controls its own currency (so can print as many pounds as it needs to pay off its debts). | OK, it also means that they don’t expect Britain to default. But that’s never a realistic danger, as the UK controls its own currency (so can print as many pounds as it needs to pay off its debts). |
Updated | Updated |
at 2.38pm BST | at 2.38pm BST |
10.45am BST | 10.45am BST |
10:45 | 10:45 |
Newsflash from Germany: investors have just paid for the chance to lend to Berlin’s government for the next decade. | Newsflash from Germany: investors have just paid for the chance to lend to Berlin’s government for the next decade. |
The German debt management office auctioned a 10-year bund this morning and found that buyers were prepared to pay more than the face value of the debt. That’s a first. | The German debt management office auctioned a 10-year bund this morning and found that buyers were prepared to pay more than the face value of the debt. That’s a first. |
That means that they are guaranteed to make a loss when the bond is repaid in 2026 – unless the buyer can sell it on at an even higher price. | That means that they are guaranteed to make a loss when the bond is repaid in 2026 – unless the buyer can sell it on at an even higher price. |
The new reality....*GERMANY SELLS 10-YEAR BUNDS WITH NEGATIVE YIELD FOR FIRST TIME | The new reality....*GERMANY SELLS 10-YEAR BUNDS WITH NEGATIVE YIELD FOR FIRST TIME |
It’s a sign that investors are looking for safe places for their money, and anticipating little growth or inflation in the next few years. | It’s a sign that investors are looking for safe places for their money, and anticipating little growth or inflation in the next few years. |
Updated | Updated |
at 2.38pm BST | at 2.38pm BST |
10.36am BST | 10.36am BST |
10:36 | 10:36 |
London’s stock market is remarkably subdued this morning. | London’s stock market is remarkably subdued this morning. |
The FTSE 100 is basically flat, while the smaller FTE 250 index has dipped by 0.3%. | The FTSE 100 is basically flat, while the smaller FTE 250 index has dipped by 0.3%. |
Investors are waiting for Theresa May’s imminent accession to the premiership, and to see who gets the crucial role of chancellor in her new cabinet. | Investors are waiting for Theresa May’s imminent accession to the premiership, and to see who gets the crucial role of chancellor in her new cabinet. |
Shares in housebuilders have fallen, after Barratt Development told shareholders it is “reassessing land approvals” to protect itself from the impact of the EU referendum outcome. | Shares in housebuilders have fallen, after Barratt Development told shareholders it is “reassessing land approvals” to protect itself from the impact of the EU referendum outcome. |
Updated | Updated |
at 10.51am BST | at 10.51am BST |
10.06am BST | 10.06am BST |
10:06 | 10:06 |
The Financial Times economics editor, Chris Giles, flags up that students graduating next summer may suffer from Brexit uncertainty: | The Financial Times economics editor, Chris Giles, flags up that students graduating next summer may suffer from Brexit uncertainty: |
FT BREXIT barometer. 2016 graduates are OK. Things much less certain for 2017 https://t.co/2tT7n20kJT pic.twitter.com/ruy46bTcSm | FT BREXIT barometer. 2016 graduates are OK. Things much less certain for 2017 https://t.co/2tT7n20kJT pic.twitter.com/ruy46bTcSm |
He also shows that consumer confidence has been knocked back. | He also shows that consumer confidence has been knocked back. |
FTBrexit barometer: consumer confidence plunges, but from a high level https://t.co/2tT7n20kJT pic.twitter.com/JilbW9b1iv | FTBrexit barometer: consumer confidence plunges, but from a high level https://t.co/2tT7n20kJT pic.twitter.com/JilbW9b1iv |
Updated | Updated |
at 10.10am BST | at 10.10am BST |
9.44am BST | 9.44am BST |
09:44 | 09:44 |
More gloom. Two-thirds of the companies that took part in Credit Suisse’s survey are planning to postpone or reduce spending in the UK in the next six months. | More gloom. Two-thirds of the companies that took part in Credit Suisse’s survey are planning to postpone or reduce spending in the UK in the next six months. |
As this chart shows, Brexit has overtaken the Chinese economy and emerging markets as the most concerning issue for companies. | As this chart shows, Brexit has overtaken the Chinese economy and emerging markets as the most concerning issue for companies. |
Updated | Updated |
at 10.09am BST | at 10.09am BST |
9.16am BST | 9.16am BST |
09:16 | 09:16 |
Brexit hits UK hiring and spending | Brexit hits UK hiring and spending |
Take note, Tim Martin. | Take note, Tim Martin. |
A new survey of UK corporate chiefs has shown that – as feared – the Brexit vote has hurt business confidence, badly. | A new survey of UK corporate chiefs has shown that – as feared – the Brexit vote has hurt business confidence, badly. |
Credit Suisse says corporate sentiment has “deteriorated out of all recognition” since 23 June. For the first time since 2013, more companiesexpect to cut spending, rather than raise it. | Credit Suisse says corporate sentiment has “deteriorated out of all recognition” since 23 June. For the first time since 2013, more companiesexpect to cut spending, rather than raise it. |
Research shows that some businesses have trimmed hiring and spending plans already. | Research shows that some businesses have trimmed hiring and spending plans already. |
Many others have put their plans on hold until they have clarity on the UK’s relationship with the EU. | Many others have put their plans on hold until they have clarity on the UK’s relationship with the EU. |
Impact on hiring of #EUref | CS pic.twitter.com/dW35dIDoeC | Impact on hiring of #EUref | CS pic.twitter.com/dW35dIDoeC |
Impact on corporate spending of #EUref | CS pic.twitter.com/BWSAUHM0hT | Impact on corporate spending of #EUref | CS pic.twitter.com/BWSAUHM0hT |
Perhaps this is why Mark Carney warned that Brexit was the biggest single threat to UK financial stability? | Perhaps this is why Mark Carney warned that Brexit was the biggest single threat to UK financial stability? |
Updated | Updated |
at 10.08am BST | at 10.08am BST |
8.37am BST | 8.37am BST |
08:37 | 08:37 |
Shares in discount chain Poundland have rocketed up after it agreed to be taken over by South Africa’s Steinhoff this morning. | Shares in discount chain Poundland have rocketed up after it agreed to be taken over by South Africa’s Steinhoff this morning. |
The deal values Poundland at £597m, a chunky figure, but one that is worth about 10% less in global terms following the Brexit vote. | The deal values Poundland at £597m, a chunky figure, but one that is worth about 10% less in global terms following the Brexit vote. |
Weak sterling makes UK companies more attractive to overseas buyers, so we could see a spike in mergers and takeovers. | Weak sterling makes UK companies more attractive to overseas buyers, so we could see a spike in mergers and takeovers. |
.@Poundland soars...+12% in line with offer from Steinhoff 220p/share. M&A in UK as weak £ makes more appetising? pic.twitter.com/6L2oDRA9EK | .@Poundland soars...+12% in line with offer from Steinhoff 220p/share. M&A in UK as weak £ makes more appetising? pic.twitter.com/6L2oDRA9EK |
Related: Struggling Poundland agrees to £597m takeover by Steinhoff | Related: Struggling Poundland agrees to £597m takeover by Steinhoff |
Updated | Updated |
at 8.58am BST | at 8.58am BST |
8.30am BST | 8.30am BST |
08:30 | 08:30 |
Sterling lifted by Theresa May | Sterling lifted by Theresa May |
The pound is pushing higher today, thanks to the prospect of Theresa May taking the reins of power. | The pound is pushing higher today, thanks to the prospect of Theresa May taking the reins of power. |
Sterling rose above $1.33 against the US dollar for the first time in more than a week, extending its best rally in two (turbulent) months. | Sterling rose above $1.33 against the US dollar for the first time in more than a week, extending its best rally in two (turbulent) months. |
Pound heads for longest winning run in 2 months as Theresa May prepares to become PM https://t.co/LLfx74pCRf pic.twitter.com/LR1JtPN7mK | Pound heads for longest winning run in 2 months as Theresa May prepares to become PM https://t.co/LLfx74pCRf pic.twitter.com/LR1JtPN7mK |
May’s promise to make a success of Brexit has reassured investors, who fear years of uncertainty over the UK’s relationship with the EU. | May’s promise to make a success of Brexit has reassured investors, who fear years of uncertainty over the UK’s relationship with the EU. |
But Britain still faces a lot of upheaval. | But Britain still faces a lot of upheaval. |
Christopher Vecchio, a currency analyst at DailyFX, worries that businesses will cut back until the picture is clearer. | Christopher Vecchio, a currency analyst at DailyFX, worries that businesses will cut back until the picture is clearer. |
Her leadership means a faster pace to Brexit and the triggering of article 50, but faster is a relative term. She will certainly be faster and more aggressive compared to Cameron, but she will still have to work through parliament to gain a majority vote to trigger article 50. And, while it is true that the majority of parliament is of her party [331 out of 650 MPs], there were many Tories who were not for Brexit. She would have to rally not just other parties, but hers as well. A difficult task ahead indeed, with 463 MPs having said they were for remain, versus the 150 MPs who said they were for leave ahead of the June 23 vote. | Her leadership means a faster pace to Brexit and the triggering of article 50, but faster is a relative term. She will certainly be faster and more aggressive compared to Cameron, but she will still have to work through parliament to gain a majority vote to trigger article 50. And, while it is true that the majority of parliament is of her party [331 out of 650 MPs], there were many Tories who were not for Brexit. She would have to rally not just other parties, but hers as well. A difficult task ahead indeed, with 463 MPs having said they were for remain, versus the 150 MPs who said they were for leave ahead of the June 23 vote. |
Needless to stay, the path to Brexit is all but clear, even as May emerges from the UK political fracas as the next prime minister. The state and structure of the UK’s relationship in the EU won’t be clear for a long while, and businesses simply can’t afford to wait that long. Markets may be calmer today, but a lack of political clarity in the UK will weigh on the British pound, which now has implications for risk markets globally.” | Needless to stay, the path to Brexit is all but clear, even as May emerges from the UK political fracas as the next prime minister. The state and structure of the UK’s relationship in the EU won’t be clear for a long while, and businesses simply can’t afford to wait that long. Markets may be calmer today, but a lack of political clarity in the UK will weigh on the British pound, which now has implications for risk markets globally.” |
Updated | Updated |
at 8.58am BST | at 8.58am BST |
8.13am BST | 8.13am BST |
08:13 | 08:13 |
Martin: Brexit is a new Magna Carta | Martin: Brexit is a new Magna Carta |
City results statements are usually pretty dry. But Wetherspoon has bucked the trend today by including a long declamation from Tim Martin on the EU referendum. | City results statements are usually pretty dry. But Wetherspoon has bucked the trend today by including a long declamation from Tim Martin on the EU referendum. |
Following his attack on the pre-referendum Brexit warnings, Martin outlines how the vote to leave the EU is a moment of democratic renewal, nay, a new Magna Carta (!) for the modern age that will see democracy reborn. | Following his attack on the pre-referendum Brexit warnings, Martin outlines how the vote to leave the EU is a moment of democratic renewal, nay, a new Magna Carta (!) for the modern age that will see democracy reborn. |
For example ... | For example ... |
Wetherspoons, headed by Tim 'Carney is an idiot' Martin, has issued "The New Magna Carta". I'm not joking. pic.twitter.com/4uJ3N4sj38 | Wetherspoons, headed by Tim 'Carney is an idiot' Martin, has issued "The New Magna Carta". I'm not joking. pic.twitter.com/4uJ3N4sj38 |
On the specifics, Martin takes the familiar leave campaign line that Europe is bound to make a good trade deal with Britain as we are such a key customer. He also hopes that tariffs with non-EU countries will fall – apparently these are pushing up the cost of Wetherspoon’s wine. | On the specifics, Martin takes the familiar leave campaign line that Europe is bound to make a good trade deal with Britain as we are such a key customer. He also hopes that tariffs with non-EU countries will fall – apparently these are pushing up the cost of Wetherspoon’s wine. |
He concludes by echoing George Orwell and Franklin D Roosevelt – not the usual FTSE 250 fare. | He concludes by echoing George Orwell and Franklin D Roosevelt – not the usual FTSE 250 fare. |
Democracy, prosperity and freedom are inextricably linked. The EU is heading down an increasingly autocratic path, which has already caused severe economic problems in most of southern Europe, and risks further contagion on the continent. Brexit is a modern Magna Carta, reasserting democratic control in the UK. It is up to UK citizens now to participate in formulating policies based on free trade with Europe and the world, an enterprise economy and sensible immigration policies, with parliamentary control. | Democracy, prosperity and freedom are inextricably linked. The EU is heading down an increasingly autocratic path, which has already caused severe economic problems in most of southern Europe, and risks further contagion on the continent. Brexit is a modern Magna Carta, reasserting democratic control in the UK. It is up to UK citizens now to participate in formulating policies based on free trade with Europe and the world, an enterprise economy and sensible immigration policies, with parliamentary control. |
As one US president said, ‘we have nothing to fear but fear itself’. But Big Brother in Brussels is no longer in charge. The world is our oyster, provided we think clearly, debate strongly and prevent the paranoia and hyperbole of the referendum process from clouding our judgement. | As one US president said, ‘we have nothing to fear but fear itself’. But Big Brother in Brussels is no longer in charge. The world is our oyster, provided we think clearly, debate strongly and prevent the paranoia and hyperbole of the referendum process from clouding our judgement. |
Such oratory is wasted in the City. Perhaps Tim Martin should run for parliament ... | Such oratory is wasted in the City. Perhaps Tim Martin should run for parliament ... |
Updated | Updated |
at 8.55am BST | at 8.55am BST |
7.55am BST | 7.55am BST |
07:55 | 07:55 |
JD Wetherspoon attacks Lagarde, Carney, Osborne ... | JD Wetherspoon attacks Lagarde, Carney, Osborne ... |
Tim Martin, the chairman and founder of pub group JD Wetherspoon, has launched a stinging attack on the “doom-mongering” from economists and global organisations ahead of the EU referendum. | Tim Martin, the chairman and founder of pub group JD Wetherspoon, has launched a stinging attack on the “doom-mongering” from economists and global organisations ahead of the EU referendum. |
Martin used his company’s latest financial results to dismiss warnings of economic disaster following the Brexit vote last month, which he claims were over the top. | Martin used his company’s latest financial results to dismiss warnings of economic disaster following the Brexit vote last month, which he claims were over the top. |
He singles out the IMF managing director, Christine Lagarde, who reckoned that the consequences of Brexit would be “pretty bad, to very, very bad”, and the Bank of England governor, Mark Carney, who is facing criticism from leave-supporting MPs for voicing his worries about Brexit. | He singles out the IMF managing director, Christine Lagarde, who reckoned that the consequences of Brexit would be “pretty bad, to very, very bad”, and the Bank of England governor, Mark Carney, who is facing criticism from leave-supporting MPs for voicing his worries about Brexit. |
Martin also criticises the chancellor, George Osborne, for threatening a punishment budget, concluding: | Martin also criticises the chancellor, George Osborne, for threatening a punishment budget, concluding: |
“Unbeknown to most voters, one of the ‘architects’ of the remain campaign, which devised the above approach, was Peter Mandelson, who worked closely with Cameron, Osborne and others. | “Unbeknown to most voters, one of the ‘architects’ of the remain campaign, which devised the above approach, was Peter Mandelson, who worked closely with Cameron, Osborne and others. |
In my opinion, the above individuals and organisations are either dishonest, or they have a poor understanding of economics, since democracy and prosperity are closely linked, and the EU is clearly undemocratic. By voting to restore democracy in the UK, I believe the UK’s economic prospects will improve, although it is quite possible that the unprecedented and irresponsible doom-mongering, outlined above, may lead to some kind of slowdown. | In my opinion, the above individuals and organisations are either dishonest, or they have a poor understanding of economics, since democracy and prosperity are closely linked, and the EU is clearly undemocratic. By voting to restore democracy in the UK, I believe the UK’s economic prospects will improve, although it is quite possible that the unprecedented and irresponsible doom-mongering, outlined above, may lead to some kind of slowdown. |
In spite of the dire warnings above, Wetherspoon trade strengthened slightly in recent weeks and we consequently anticipate a modestly improved outcome for this financial year. Caution should be exercised in extrapolating current levels of sales growth for future years. | In spite of the dire warnings above, Wetherspoon trade strengthened slightly in recent weeks and we consequently anticipate a modestly improved outcome for this financial year. Caution should be exercised in extrapolating current levels of sales growth for future years. |
Punchy stuff. I’d be wary, though, of using Wetherspoon’s trading figures as the definitive measure of economic conditions. There’s more to the economy than pints and curries. | Punchy stuff. I’d be wary, though, of using Wetherspoon’s trading figures as the definitive measure of economic conditions. There’s more to the economy than pints and curries. |
For the record, Wetherspoon’s like-for-like sales are up by 4% in the past 11 weeks. | For the record, Wetherspoon’s like-for-like sales are up by 4% in the past 11 weeks. |
Updated | Updated |
at 8.52am BST | at 8.52am BST |
7.31am BST | 7.31am BST |
07:31 | 07:31 |
Introduction: May day brings calm to the markets | Introduction: May day brings calm to the markets |
Good morning and welcome to our rolling coverage of the world economy, the financial markets, the eurozone and business. | Good morning and welcome to our rolling coverage of the world economy, the financial markets, the eurozone and business. |
There’s a sense of stability in the City this morning, as the Brexit angst of recent weeks ebbs. | There’s a sense of stability in the City this morning, as the Brexit angst of recent weeks ebbs. |
With Theresa May set to become Britain’s new prime minister by dusk, investors have a little more certainty about the UK’s political situation. So the pound is continuing to rally, while the FTSE 100 is expected to open near the 11-month high set this week. | With Theresa May set to become Britain’s new prime minister by dusk, investors have a little more certainty about the UK’s political situation. So the pound is continuing to rally, while the FTSE 100 is expected to open near the 11-month high set this week. |
We’re also getting financial results from fashion group Burberry, pub chain JD Wetherspoon and building group Barratt Developments. | We’re also getting financial results from fashion group Burberry, pub chain JD Wetherspoon and building group Barratt Developments. |
The Poundland discount chain is being acquired by South African retail group Steinhoff in a £597m deal. | The Poundland discount chain is being acquired by South African retail group Steinhoff in a £597m deal. |
Discount chain #Poundland has agreed to a £597m takeover by South African retail group Steinhoff International | Discount chain #Poundland has agreed to a £597m takeover by South African retail group Steinhoff International |
Updated | Updated |
at 8.50am BST | at 8.50am BST |