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Turkey signals normalisation of relations with Syria Syrian rebels stunned as Turkey signals normalisation of Damascus relations
(about 4 hours later)
Turkey has signalled a normalisation of relations with Syria, in an apparent policy shift after five years of a civil war that has increasingly threatened Turkish borders and worn down an anti-government rebellion heavily backed by Ankara. More than five years into Syria’s civil war, Turkey, the country that has most helped the rebellion against the rule of Bashar al-Assad, has hinted it may move to normalise relations with Damascus.
Such a move, which has been rumoured for weeks in media outlets in Lebanon close to the Bashar al-Assad regime, would represent a tectonic shift in the region’s dynamics, realigning protagonists in the war and potentially spelling an end to the rebellion against Assad’s rule. The suggestion made by the Turkish prime minister, Binali Yıldırım, on Wednesday, stunned the Syrian opposition leadership, which Ankara hosts, as well as regional leaders, who had allied with Turkey in their push to oust Assad over a long, unforgiving war.
It would also indicate that Turkey sees the threat of Kurdish expansionism in northern Syria as a greater priority than the removal of Assad, who in 2011 spurned demands by Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, then prime minister and now president, that he recognise rather than crush popular opposition to his rule. “I am sure that we will return [our] ties with Syria to normal,” he said, straying far from an official script that has persistently called for immediate regime change. “We need it. We normalised our relations with Israel and Russia. I’m sure we will go back to normal relations with Syria as well.”
On Wednesday the prime minister, Binali Yıldırım, said in a television address that restoring relations with Syria was needed both in the context of a counter-terrorism campaign and an overall reset of relations with regional powers. Though Turkish officials later claimed the remarks were made in hope, and did not imply a policy shift, both the Ankara-backed rebels and regional diplomats inferred that Turkey was softening its rhetoric in advance of a reset with Assad, whose allies have backed him into a winning position in the war.
“We did not see this coming, said one official. “It is not consistent with what they have been saying privately.”
Related: Israel and Turkey end six-year standoffRelated: Israel and Turkey end six-year standoff
“I am sure that we will return [our] ties with Syria to normal,” he said. “We need it. We normalised our relations with Israel and Russia. I’m sure we will go back to normal relations with Syria as well. We need this [because] in order for counterterrorism efforts to succeed there has to be stability in Syria and Iraq and [they] need to adopt a system of government that represents all our brothers and sisters [in Syria and Iraq]. This is inevitable.” In recent weeks, Turkey has patched up wounds with Israel, which were ruptured over an Israeli commando raid on a Turkish aid boat almost Gaza eight years ago, and with Russia, which had cut trade ties after Turkey downed one of its fighter jets over northern Syria earlier this year.
Turkish officials played down suggestions that Yıldırım’s remarks represented a policy reversal, insisting there was no intention of seeking reconciliation with Assad’s government, only with whichever government replaces him. The Russian reset came after Syrian Kurdish forces supported from the air and directed on the ground by Moscow manoeuvred into new areas, which imperiled the Syrian opposition, but more importantly for Turkey, directly threatened its borders.
“There is a distinction between Syria and Bashar al-Assad,” a senior Turkish official said. “We hope, at some point, relations between Turkey and Syria will get back to normal. That’s what it is. That’s all it is.” Syria’s Kurds are allied politically with the Kurds of Southeastern Turkey who are embroiled with Ankara in a new phase of the 40-year guerrilla war. To Ankara, Kurdish expansionism is a greater threat to its interests than the survival of Assad. Russia has also expressed an interest in maintaining the territorial integrity of Syria – common ground for each side, not to mention the increasing inroads of the Islamic State (Isis) terror group.
The remarks came weeks after Ankara restored diplomatic ties with Russia and Israel, ending months of escalating tensions with the Kremlin after Turkey shot down a Russian fighter jet that had strayed into its airspace, and years of severed relations with Israel after several Turkish citizens died when Tel Aviv ordered a raid on the Mavi Marmara, a flotilla attempting to break the siege of Gaza. Russia is also well aware of Turkey’s weak point and how best to exploit it. The Syrian Kurds who have aided Assad in his push to retake the north had, until this year, remained largely on the sidelines of the clash between opposition and loyalist forces. That changed within weeks of Russia’s large scale air intervention, which began last October. Several months later, the Kurds had neared Aleppo and new pockets of the Turkish border.
They reflect widespread fears inside Turkey that the war in Syria is threatening the country’s territorial integrity, a development that would have wider implications for Turkey’s restive Kurdish population. Turkish officials say there has been no change to the official position that Assad must leave – a demand made by then prime minister, Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, in August 2011 after the Syrian leader had spurned Erdoğan’s pleas that he recognise, rather than crush, popular opposition to his rule.
The Kurdish PYD and its paramilitary force, the YPG, hold sway across vast tracts of northern Syria along the border with Turkey, which says they are Syrian affiliates of the Kurdistan Workers party (PKK), a designated terrorist organisation that is fighting a long-running insurgency in south-east Turkey. “There is a distinction between Syria and Bashar al-Assad,” a senior official said. “We hope, at some point, relations between Turkey and Syria will get back to normal. That’s what it is. That’s all it is.”
Syria’s Kurds recently declared the territory they had clawed back from Islamic State control, with American backing, part of an autonomous zone that neither the Turkish nor the Syrian governments recognise, and which Ankara fears will spur its own insurgency. Yıldırım had qualified his remarks by saying: “We need this [because] in order for counterterrorism efforts to succeed, there has to be stability in Syria and Iraq and [they] need to adopt a system of government that represents all our brothers and sisters [in Syria and Iraq]. This is inevitable.”
Turkey has suffered terror attacks in its territory, including the recent bombing of its bustling Atatürk airport and an attack in Ankara last October that killed more than 100 people at a peace rally, both of which were blamed on Isis. Kurdish separatists have claimed several attacks against Turkish security forces. However, his decision to raise the issue of normalisation comes at a time when backers of the Syrian president insist that tangible steps are already underway. Talk of a detente had been rife in the region for weeks, with pro-regime media outlets in Lebanon and pro-government supporters in Istanbul detailing back-channel dialogue between senior intelligence officials in Turkey and Syria.
Turkey has long been a staunch opponent of Assad, and has repeatedly called for his departure as the only path towards a credible peace process that would end the civil war. In that time Turkey has taken in more than 2 million Syrian refugees. Erdoğan said this month that he may offer citizenship to some. They had further intensified as pro-regime forces, led by Lebanese Hezbollah and Shia militias from Iraq and Afghanistan encircled northern Aleppo, after more than a year of trying. Kurdish forces also played a role cutting a route between Aleppo and the Turkish border, and bringing them into areas they had not before controlled.
The Kurdish PYD and its paramilitary force the YPG now hold vast tracts of northern Syria along the Turkish border, a fact that Ankara says supercharges the domestic insurgency it faces. For the first time in the modern history of the Turkish state, Kurds inside Syria now lord over all but a 60-mile stretch of the two countries’ shared border. And Ankara has vowed not to let the gap close further.
Syria’s Kurds recently declared the territory they had clawed back from Isis control, with American backing, to be part of an autonomous zone that neither the Turkish nor the Syrian governments recognise, and which Ankara fears will accelerate the ambitions of the PKK.
If a solution to Syria’s war is to be found, Ankara will not allow this new reality to stand. Moving the Kurds out of the way would be a small price to pay for an Assad victory. Turkey, meanwhile, may well have flagged that it is prepared to pay a much bigger price for a return to the pre-2011 status quo.
shot down a Russian fighter jet