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South China Sea ruling: America has a crucial role to play South China Sea ruling: America has a crucial role to play
(about 1 month later)
Related: What does the South China Sea verdict mean for you?
The international tribunal ruling that China’s claims in the South China Sea – and many of the tactics it has employed to assert those claims – are illegal presents difficult challenges for all involved. For China, the choice is whether to modify its policies, or continue them in direct contravention of international law. The question for the Philippines, the United States and many other nations, meanwhile, will be how to respond in a way that supports the ruling and makes it more likely that China will choose to peacefully resolve the disputes.The international tribunal ruling that China’s claims in the South China Sea – and many of the tactics it has employed to assert those claims – are illegal presents difficult challenges for all involved. For China, the choice is whether to modify its policies, or continue them in direct contravention of international law. The question for the Philippines, the United States and many other nations, meanwhile, will be how to respond in a way that supports the ruling and makes it more likely that China will choose to peacefully resolve the disputes.
It is important to understand the historic significance of Tuesday’s decision. For years, all countries with claims in the South China Sea have traded barbs and proclaimed the inviolability of their sovereignty in the South China Sea; Tuesday’s ruling has provided the first impartial, international legal decision on those disputes.It is important to understand the historic significance of Tuesday’s decision. For years, all countries with claims in the South China Sea have traded barbs and proclaimed the inviolability of their sovereignty in the South China Sea; Tuesday’s ruling has provided the first impartial, international legal decision on those disputes.
The takeaway is clear: China can’t legally claim much of the waters and features in the South China Sea that it has been claiming, and therefore many of China’s activities to assert control of those areas are also illegal.The takeaway is clear: China can’t legally claim much of the waters and features in the South China Sea that it has been claiming, and therefore many of China’s activities to assert control of those areas are also illegal.
The ramifications of the decision, however, are far less certain.The ramifications of the decision, however, are far less certain.
Upholding Tuesday’s decision will be much more difficult than issuing statements supporting its conclusions; the tribunal has no navy, no economic sanctions to levy for non-compliance. And while the decision is legally binding on both China and the Philippines, China has reaffirmed that it does not recognize the ruling.Upholding Tuesday’s decision will be much more difficult than issuing statements supporting its conclusions; the tribunal has no navy, no economic sanctions to levy for non-compliance. And while the decision is legally binding on both China and the Philippines, China has reaffirmed that it does not recognize the ruling.
Related: China issues warning to US ahead of South China Sea ruling
Whatever the rationale behind its “nine-dash line” claim, China has used the ambiguity of the claim to assert more and more control over the sea lanes of the South China Sea – a worrisome and potentially destabilizing trend in Asia. China’s size and power enable it to do so.Whatever the rationale behind its “nine-dash line” claim, China has used the ambiguity of the claim to assert more and more control over the sea lanes of the South China Sea – a worrisome and potentially destabilizing trend in Asia. China’s size and power enable it to do so.
The ruling sets up difficult dilemmas for countries looking to uphold the ruling. For instance, no one would advocate trying to push China off Mischief Reef – which is one of the disputed reefs – even though it has now been determined part of Philippines’ waters. Similarly, if the Philippines attempts to explore for petroleum in Reed Bank, it’s likely that China will once again try to prevent it.The ruling sets up difficult dilemmas for countries looking to uphold the ruling. For instance, no one would advocate trying to push China off Mischief Reef – which is one of the disputed reefs – even though it has now been determined part of Philippines’ waters. Similarly, if the Philippines attempts to explore for petroleum in Reed Bank, it’s likely that China will once again try to prevent it.
So while the ruling undermines the basis of China’s legal position, it will be very difficult to stop China from continuing illegal actions. China seems comfortable enough taking the international criticism as long as it can get what it wants in the South China Sea.So while the ruling undermines the basis of China’s legal position, it will be very difficult to stop China from continuing illegal actions. China seems comfortable enough taking the international criticism as long as it can get what it wants in the South China Sea.
All eyes will now turn to China and the Philippines. Actions by either country could raise tensions and cause an incident. For example, while the Philippines would be within its rights to explore for gas in Reed Bank or construct a new apparatus on Second Thomas Shoal, it may not be wise to do so right now for fear of China’s response.All eyes will now turn to China and the Philippines. Actions by either country could raise tensions and cause an incident. For example, while the Philippines would be within its rights to explore for gas in Reed Bank or construct a new apparatus on Second Thomas Shoal, it may not be wise to do so right now for fear of China’s response.
At the same time, China has two built-in incentives to limit its behavior to talking points for the moment. First, as host of the G-20 summit in early September, any incident between now and then could tarnish the summit. Second, the longer that China flouts the ruling, the more countries in the region will believe that there is no stopping China in the South China Sea.At the same time, China has two built-in incentives to limit its behavior to talking points for the moment. First, as host of the G-20 summit in early September, any incident between now and then could tarnish the summit. Second, the longer that China flouts the ruling, the more countries in the region will believe that there is no stopping China in the South China Sea.
This is where the role of the United States – and the rest of the countries in the region – becomes crucial. The Philippines, the United States, Japan, Australia and many Asean partners need to respond in a way that will uphold the tribunal’s decisions and continue protecting their interests. One tool to do so will be freedom of navigation operations around features where legal determinations have been made by the tribunal – and by clearly stating the reasons for each – which can show China that the region will uphold international law.This is where the role of the United States – and the rest of the countries in the region – becomes crucial. The Philippines, the United States, Japan, Australia and many Asean partners need to respond in a way that will uphold the tribunal’s decisions and continue protecting their interests. One tool to do so will be freedom of navigation operations around features where legal determinations have been made by the tribunal – and by clearly stating the reasons for each – which can show China that the region will uphold international law.
Related: Beijing rejects tribunal's ruling in South China Sea case
In the aftermath of the ruling, the United States will have to play a central role in encouraging China and the Philippines to refrain from actions that could spike tensions, while working with all claimants to see this ruling as an opportunity to jumpstart talks to resolve their disputes. If China wanted to, it could finally clarify its claim in accordance with international law, defend its claims and engage in real talks.In the aftermath of the ruling, the United States will have to play a central role in encouraging China and the Philippines to refrain from actions that could spike tensions, while working with all claimants to see this ruling as an opportunity to jumpstart talks to resolve their disputes. If China wanted to, it could finally clarify its claim in accordance with international law, defend its claims and engage in real talks.
At the end of the day, unless China decides to bring its claims and actions in accordance with international law, only a two-pronged approach will help lower tensions in the South China Sea: a US-China brokered security framework to maintain stability in the South China Sea and a multilateral diplomatic process with the claimant countries to create agreements that would address key disagreements, including resource exploitation, the militarization of features and incident prevention and management.At the end of the day, unless China decides to bring its claims and actions in accordance with international law, only a two-pronged approach will help lower tensions in the South China Sea: a US-China brokered security framework to maintain stability in the South China Sea and a multilateral diplomatic process with the claimant countries to create agreements that would address key disagreements, including resource exploitation, the militarization of features and incident prevention and management.
Tuesday’s ruling provides the most clear and compelling basis for addressing the disputes in the South China Sea, if only China would seize the opportunity.Tuesday’s ruling provides the most clear and compelling basis for addressing the disputes in the South China Sea, if only China would seize the opportunity.