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Brexit will plunge the UK into a recession in the next year, BlackRock says Brexit will plunge the UK into a recession in the next year, BlackRock says
(1 day later)
Britain will be plunged into a recession this year and be plagued with lower economic growth for another five because of the shock decision for the UK to leave the EU, BlackRock analysts have said. Britain will be plunged into a recession this year and be plagued with lower economic growth for another five years because of the shock decision for the UK to leave the EU, BlackRock analysts have said.
BlackRock is the largest asset manager in the world with $4.6 trillion under management as of 2015. Richard Turnill, chief investment strategist, has said that firm's "base case" is recession, meaning at a minimum, it expects the UK GDP to fall for two successive quarters in a row. BlackRock is the largest asset manager in the world with $4.6 trillion under management as of 2015. Richard Turnill, chief investment strategist, has said that firm's "base case" is recession, meaning at a minimum, it expects the UK GDP to fall for two successive quarters in a row. 
"Our base case is we will have a recession," Turnill told reporters at a meeting on Tuesday."Our base case is we will have a recession," Turnill told reporters at a meeting on Tuesday.
“There's likely to be a significant reduction of investment in the UK," he added, noting that Brexit will contribute to uncertainty that will damage growth prospects.“There's likely to be a significant reduction of investment in the UK," he added, noting that Brexit will contribute to uncertainty that will damage growth prospects.
BlackRock believes that Mark Carney will announce an interest rate cut from historic lows of 0.5 per cent as early as Thursday and expand its quantitative easing bond buying programme.BlackRock believes that Mark Carney will announce an interest rate cut from historic lows of 0.5 per cent as early as Thursday and expand its quantitative easing bond buying programme.
“The market is not entirely priced for that yet,” said Scott Thiel, BlackRock's deputy chief investment officer and head of global bonds.“The market is not entirely priced for that yet,” said Scott Thiel, BlackRock's deputy chief investment officer and head of global bonds.
Market reaction to a further rate cut could see the value of the pound slip further, losing gains made this week after Theresa May was named as the next UK prime minister. Market reaction to a further rate cut could see the value of the pound slip further, losing gains made this week after Theresa May was named as the next UK prime minister. 
Sterling scraped below $1.28 last week, reaching lows not seen since 1985, but has since rebounded to trade around $1.32 against the dollar.Sterling scraped below $1.28 last week, reaching lows not seen since 1985, but has since rebounded to trade around $1.32 against the dollar.
BlackRock said it prefered emerging market bonds, developed market investment grade corporate debt and some bank debt from the eurozone periphery in this market environment.BlackRock said it prefered emerging market bonds, developed market investment grade corporate debt and some bank debt from the eurozone periphery in this market environment.
Tobias Davis, head of corporate treasury sales at Western Business Solutions, said that around 70 per cent of the market has already priced in an interest rate cut when the Monetary Policy Committee meets on Thursday.Tobias Davis, head of corporate treasury sales at Western Business Solutions, said that around 70 per cent of the market has already priced in an interest rate cut when the Monetary Policy Committee meets on Thursday.
"The market is pricing 70 per cent chance of a cut to 0.25 per cent, however I think otherwise and believe they will save their bullets for next month."The market is pricing 70 per cent chance of a cut to 0.25 per cent, however I think otherwise and believe they will save their bullets for next month.
"[There are] rumours that Carney will look to purchase corporate bonds to form part of his impending stimulus program,“ Davis said in a note to investors."[There are] rumours that Carney will look to purchase corporate bonds to form part of his impending stimulus program,“ Davis said in a note to investors.