This article is from the source 'nytimes' and was first published or seen
on .
It last changed over 40 days ago and won't be checked again for changes.
Poll Finds Emails Weighing on Hillary Clinton, Now Tied With Donald Trump
Poll Finds Voters in Both Parties Unhappy With Their Candidates
(about 11 hours later)
Hillary Clinton has emerged from the F.B.I. investigation into her email practices as secretary of state a wounded candidate with a large and growing majority of voters saying she cannot be trusted, according to the latest New York Times/CBS News poll.
On the eve of the major party conventions, voters are grudgingly rallying around the nominees while expressing broad misgivings about the candidates, the campaign and the direction of the country, according to the latest New York Times/CBS News Poll.
As Mrs. Clinton prepares to accept the Democratic Party’s nomination at the convention in Philadelphia this month, she will confront an electorate in which 67 percent of voters say she is not honest and trustworthy. That number is up five percentage points from a CBS News poll conducted last month, before the F.B.I. released its findings.
More than a third of Republicans say they are disappointed or upset that Donald J. Trump, who crashed the party’s nominating process, will represent them in the fall campaign; an equal number say he does not represent the values the party should stand for.
Mrs. Clinton’s six-percentage-point lead over the presumptive Republican nominee, Donald J. Trump, in a CBS News poll last month has evaporated. The two candidates are now tied in a general election matchup, the new poll indicates, with each receiving the support of 40 percent of voters.
Democrats are only marginally happier with Hillary Clinton as their party’s candidate. A quarter of Democratic voters say they are disappointed in her as the nominee; an additional seven percent say they are upset. More promisingly for her, three-quarters say Mrs. Clinton stands for the core values and principles of the Democratic Party.
Any single poll is but a snapshot, and many other polls show Mrs. Clinton with a narrow but consistent lead over Mr. Trump. The Times/CBS News survey was conducted shortly after the release of the F.B.I. report on her email practices that suggested they were imprudent but not illegal. The damage from those revelations may or may not prove lasting.
The broad discontent is reflected in the head-to-head contest, which has Mr. Trump and Mrs. Clinton tied at 40 percent. Mr. Trump’s standing has held steady for weeks at around 40 percentage points, while Mrs. Clinton has polled in the mid-40s in most public surveys.
Mr. Trump is also distrusted by a large number of voters — 62 percent — but that number has stayed constant despite increased scrutiny on his business record and falsehoods in his public statements and Twitter messages.
The latest Times/CBS News Poll was conducted after the F.B.I. rebuked her for her email practices but before Bernie Sanders, her persistent primary rival, embraced and endorsed her this week. So the dip in her standing could be temporary and reverse sharply if the Democrats, who are far more united as a party than the Republicans, pull off a successful convention in Philadelphia.
But Mrs. Clinton’s shifting and inaccurate explanations of her email practices at the State Department appear to have resonated more deeply with the electorate.
In a development not seen in any modern presidential contest, more than half of all voters hold unfavorable views of the two major party candidates and large majorities say neither is honest and trustworthy. Only half of voters say Mrs. Clinton is prepared to be president, while an astonishing two-thirds say that Mr. Trump is not ready for the job — including four in 10 Republicans.
Last week, the F.B.I. director, James B. Comey, recommended no criminal charges be filed against Mrs. Clinton over her handling of classified information on a private email server, but he called her actions “extremely careless.” The investigation undercut many of Mrs. Clinton’s statements over the past 18 months to explain and defend her decision to rely on the private server at her home in Chappaqua, N.Y.
Peter Lieb, 54, a middle school history teacher in West Palm Beach, Fla., voted for Gov. John Kasich of Ohio in the Florida primary and said in a follow-up interview that he was only reluctantly planning to vote for Mr. Trump in November.
Mrs. Clinton and her campaign celebrated the Justice Department’s decision not to indict her as a legal victory, but the political fallout appears significant, at least for now. She and her aides have vowed to win back the public’s trust, while acknowledging that this will be tough.
Why Mr. Trump?
Voters still view Mrs. Clinton as vastly more prepared for the job — with 50 percent saying she is prepared, compared with the 30 percent who say the same about Mr. Trump. Voters’ views of Mrs. Clinton’s preparedness have also declined, by nine percentage points since last month.
“Honestly?” Mr. Lieb said. “Last man standing.”
As the candidates head to their respective party conventions, they will confront voters who range from disappointed to disgruntled about their choices.
“I am not a full-throated supporter of Donald Trump, but given the alternatives that I’m presented with, he is the best person for the task at hand,” he said. “And the task at hand in my opinion is regaining economic stability and regaining America’s stature in the world. I don’t see Hillary Clinton doing a constructive job in either.”
Just 28 percent of voters said they had a positive view of Mrs. Clinton, compared with 33 percent last month. Asked if her email practices were illegal, 46 percent of voters said yes, compared with 23 percent who said using a private server was improper but not illegal. Twenty-four percent said she did nothing wrong.
The nationwide poll was conducted July 8-12 on cellphones and landlines among 1,358 registered voters. The margin of sampling error is plus or minus three percentage points for all voters.
“I just don’t think she’s been completely truthful with this whole thing with her emails,” Cecelia Purner, 67, a retired customer service representative in Allentown, Pa., said in a follow-up interview. But, she added, “I think she’ll make a good president if elected.”
Preconvention polls are often erratic, and political analysts and campaign managers put more stock in polls taken after both parties have formally nominated their candidates. And national polls, while useful as a gauge of broad sentiment, are less reliable than state polls in predicting the ultimate outcome. Mrs. Clinton enjoys strong advantages in many of the swing states she will need to secure victory in the Electoral College.
Mr. Trump has slightly improved his standing, with 30 percent of voters saying they have a positive view of him. Last month, 26 percent said the same.
Mrs. Clinton still leads in averages of recent polls, though her margin has narrowed since late June. The latest Times/CBS News poll could be an indication of an even tighter race. Yet Mr. Trump has not led a national poll that meets The Times’s polling standards since mid-May, just after he won enough delegates to secure the Republican nomination.
As attack ads and verbal charges intensify on both sides, voters already appear fatigued. More than six in 10 say they were not looking forward to the next few months of the campaign; 46 percent said they were unenthusiastic about the 2016 presidential election.
While the race may be narrow, the gloom appears broad.
Carole Bower, 75, a retiree in Carthage, Ill., supported Gov. John Kasich of Ohio in the Republican primary, but now plans to vote for Mr. Trump. “I will reluctantly do that because he’s got to be better than Hillary,” she said. “I will hold my nose and go into that voting booth.”
Rachel Woolard, 20, of Jacksonville, Fla., supported Mr. Sanders in the Democratic primary but now says she will, with some misgivings, probably vote for Mrs. Clinton.
The grim view of the political climate comes as Americans experience heightened anxieties connected to their economic prospects, the threat of terrorism and race relations.
“Bernie seemed more to be more transparent than her,” said Ms. Woolard, a college student. “She definitely has the stereotypical politician approach to things, so that makes her feel a little disingenuous.”
The killings of black men by white police officers and attacks on the police have left 62 percent of voters saying race relations are growing worse. Mrs. Clinton is seen as far more capable of dealing with racial tensions than Mr. Trump — 60 percent of voters said Mrs. Clinton would be better at handling the issue, double the number who said the same of Mr. Trump.
Ms. Woolard is not yet fully committed to voting for Mrs. Clinton. But she knows whom she is voting against. “I know for a fact that I’m not voting for Trump.”
Mrs. Clinton has largely based her campaign on lifting the economic fortunes of a middle class that has felt squeezed after nearly 15 years of stagnant wages, a message that should fit with the current climate. Yet voters increasingly view Mrs. Clinton as less able to fulfill that economic promise. Last month, those polled were evenly split on whether Mrs. Clinton or Mr. Trump would do a better job handling the economy and jobs. Now, 52 percent said Mr. Trump would be better, compared with 41 percent for Mrs. Clinton.
Laura Schrock, 36, a homemaker and political independent in Greenwood, Del., said she will not vote for Mr. Trump or Mrs. Clinton.
After the deadly attack on a gay nightclub in Orlando, Fla., by a gunman who expressed sympathy for the Islamic State, voters are evenly divided on which candidate would do a better job of handling terrorism and national security, an issue on which Mrs. Clinton held a seven-percentage-point advantage last month.
“At this point, the plan is to vote for the Libertarian candidate,” she said, referring to Gary Johnson. “I highly value being real and being very honest. And I’m just not getting that from either one.”
The lens through which voters view the candidates is sharply divided along gender and racial lines, with Mr. Trump having a double-digit lead among men and white voters without college degrees and Mrs. Clinton maintaining her double-digit edge among women and nonwhites.
In a three-way contest, Mr. Johnson has 12 percent, while Mr. Trump and Mrs. Clinton are tied with 36 percent.
At a rally in Portsmouth, N.H., on Tuesday, Senator Bernie Sanders of Vermont endorsed Mrs. Clinton, saying that his former Democratic primary rival would “make an outstanding president.” But some of his supporters remain reluctant to get behind Mrs. Clinton, often citing trust as a factor.
Republicans and Democrats are divided by more than political philosophy and their choice of presidential candidates. They hold very different views of the state of the nation, the Times/CBS News poll found.
“Bernie seemed more to be more transparent than her,” said Rachel Woolard, 20, of Jacksonville, Fla. “She definitely has the stereotypical politician approach to things, so that makes her feel a little disingenuous.”
For example:
The nationwide poll was conducted July 8 to 12 on cellphones and landlines among 1,358 registered voters. The margin of sampling error is plus or minus three percentage points for all voters.
■ 86 percent of Trump supporters disapprove of the job President Obama is doing; 90 percent of Clinton backers approve.
With intense news media attention surrounding the candidates’ selection of running mates, many voters across party lines shrugged off the decision, with three in 10 saying a vice-presidential candidate would have no effect on their vote.
■ More than nine in 10 Trump supporters say the country is on the wrong track; fewer than half of Clinton supporters agree.
■ About three-quarters of Trump supporters favor building a wall along the Mexican border; only 13 percent of Clinton’s backers do so.
■ Four of five Trump supporters do not like the way the nation’s values are changing; only about half as many Clinton supporters agree.
Voters of all persuasions share one sentiment, however. Six in 10 Republicans, Democrats and independents say they are not looking forward to the next few months of the presidential campaign.
