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| Trident renewal: Labour mulling five options as MPs prepare to vote | Trident renewal: Labour mulling five options as MPs prepare to vote |
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| Labour is considering at least five options for the future of Britain’s Trident nuclear deterrent, including fewer submarine patrols or the introduction of new missiles carried by aircraft, the Guardian has learned. | Labour is considering at least five options for the future of Britain’s Trident nuclear deterrent, including fewer submarine patrols or the introduction of new missiles carried by aircraft, the Guardian has learned. |
| As MPs prepare to vote on replacing Trident on Monday evening, it is understood that Labour’s defence review has identified a series of alternatives that range from complete nuclear disarmament by the 2030s to replacing all four submarines on a like-for-like basis. | |
| The review, headed by the shadow foreign secretary, Emily Thornberry, is ongoing as the party struggles to come up with a policy on the nuclear deterrent that satisfies Jeremy Corbyn, its deputy leader, Tom Watson, and its union backers. | The review, headed by the shadow foreign secretary, Emily Thornberry, is ongoing as the party struggles to come up with a policy on the nuclear deterrent that satisfies Jeremy Corbyn, its deputy leader, Tom Watson, and its union backers. |
| The Labour leader opposes renewal, while Watson and about half of the parliamentary party are in favour of replacing Trident, as do the overwhelming majority of the Conservative party. | |
| Labour’s split over Trident has grown following the election of Corbyn, a life-long opponent of nuclear weapons. | Labour’s split over Trident has grown following the election of Corbyn, a life-long opponent of nuclear weapons. |
| He is at odds with many of his MPs over the future of the UK nuclear weapons system, which the government has estimated will cost £31bn to renew, and commissioned the review to look at its future. | |
| But the review, which is currently on hold, is believed to say that the case for replacing Trident is not wholly convincing and the case has not been made. It questions whether a “continuous at-sea deterrent” is the only form of viable form of nuclear deterrence, sources said. | But the review, which is currently on hold, is believed to say that the case for replacing Trident is not wholly convincing and the case has not been made. It questions whether a “continuous at-sea deterrent” is the only form of viable form of nuclear deterrence, sources said. |
| Sources said the review will consider at least four options for downgrading the UK’s nuclear capabilities. | Sources said the review will consider at least four options for downgrading the UK’s nuclear capabilities. |
| These include a reduced number of patrols, which could mean nuclear warheads being brought down to fewer than 100, down from the current 225. Under this option, only two or three submarines would be on patrol and there would be periods of months at a time that none was deployed at sea. | These include a reduced number of patrols, which could mean nuclear warheads being brought down to fewer than 100, down from the current 225. Under this option, only two or three submarines would be on patrol and there would be periods of months at a time that none was deployed at sea. |
| Another option would be for submarines to be adapted so they can be used to carry both conventional weapons and nuclear warheads. This could involve carrying cruise missiles. | Another option would be for submarines to be adapted so they can be used to carry both conventional weapons and nuclear warheads. This could involve carrying cruise missiles. |
| Yet another under consideration has been to commission a nuclear deterrent that could be carried by aircraft, sources confirmed. | Yet another under consideration has been to commission a nuclear deterrent that could be carried by aircraft, sources confirmed. |
| The party has also not ruled out extending the life of the Trident submarines beyond 2030 or dismantling them without replacement. | The party has also not ruled out extending the life of the Trident submarines beyond 2030 or dismantling them without replacement. |
| It has previously emerged in a leak to the BBC’s Newsnight that any future weapons system must satisfy five tests: it must offer a credible contribution to the UK’s defence; a credible contribution in the future as technology develops; demonstrate value for money; it should contribute towards the party’s support for multilateral disarmament; and contribute to British jobs and skills. | |
| The review states that it is extremely unlikely that the government would wreak the devastation of a nuclear war unless there is an “existential threat” to the UK, sources said. | The review states that it is extremely unlikely that the government would wreak the devastation of a nuclear war unless there is an “existential threat” to the UK, sources said. |
| Asked to respond to the Guardian’s disclosures, a Labour spokesperson said Trident replacement is one of a wide range of options being examined. | Asked to respond to the Guardian’s disclosures, a Labour spokesperson said Trident replacement is one of a wide range of options being examined. |
| “The review is still examining a very wide range of options for our potential future nuclear capability and for taking concrete steps towards global multilateral disarmament, but has not yet reached any conclusions.” | “The review is still examining a very wide range of options for our potential future nuclear capability and for taking concrete steps towards global multilateral disarmament, but has not yet reached any conclusions.” |
| Defence experts said they were sceptical that such options would be viable, saying that similar options were considered and rejected in 2013 by a government review requested by the Liberal Democrats. | Defence experts said they were sceptical that such options would be viable, saying that similar options were considered and rejected in 2013 by a government review requested by the Liberal Democrats. |
| The Trident Alternatives Review found that alternatives would enable the UK to be capable of inflicting significant damage on potential enemies. However, it concluded none of these alternative systems and postures offered the “same degree of resilience” as the current posture of continuous at-sea deterrence, nor could they guarantee a prompt response in all circumstances. | The Trident Alternatives Review found that alternatives would enable the UK to be capable of inflicting significant damage on potential enemies. However, it concluded none of these alternative systems and postures offered the “same degree of resilience” as the current posture of continuous at-sea deterrence, nor could they guarantee a prompt response in all circumstances. |
| Labour MPs will split three ways at the vote on Monday with Corbyn, voting against Trident renewal. A range of frontbenchers and MPs may either abstain or vote in favour. | Labour MPs will split three ways at the vote on Monday with Corbyn, voting against Trident renewal. A range of frontbenchers and MPs may either abstain or vote in favour. |
| Tensions over the vote broke into the open on Monday as Watson suggested Unite union members whose jobs depend on a successor to the Trident programme could withdraw support for their leader Len McCluskey over his backing for Corbyn. | Tensions over the vote broke into the open on Monday as Watson suggested Unite union members whose jobs depend on a successor to the Trident programme could withdraw support for their leader Len McCluskey over his backing for Corbyn. |
| He told the BBC’s World at One: “There you have Len McCluskey strongly supporting Jeremy Corbyn, who will be voting against the Trident programme tonight, which will put many defence workers in Unite out of their jobs if he gets his way. | He told the BBC’s World at One: “There you have Len McCluskey strongly supporting Jeremy Corbyn, who will be voting against the Trident programme tonight, which will put many defence workers in Unite out of their jobs if he gets his way. |
| “So I think there will be consequences for the unions in this as well. There are executive elections coming up in Unite later in the year. If I was a defence worker in Unite and I was reading social media that Unite were about to give Jeremy Corbyn a quarter of a million pounds of my subscriptions, I would be furious today. | “So I think there will be consequences for the unions in this as well. There are executive elections coming up in Unite later in the year. If I was a defence worker in Unite and I was reading social media that Unite were about to give Jeremy Corbyn a quarter of a million pounds of my subscriptions, I would be furious today. |
| “And I’m sure that that will lend to the division in the whole of the movement as we go forward.” | “And I’m sure that that will lend to the division in the whole of the movement as we go forward.” |
| Unite responded to the parliamentary vote by saying the government was playing politics and insisting it was about replacing the submarines that carry nuclear weapons, rather than the Trident deterrent itself. | Unite responded to the parliamentary vote by saying the government was playing politics and insisting it was about replacing the submarines that carry nuclear weapons, rather than the Trident deterrent itself. |
| Ian Waddell, Unite national officer for aerospace and shipbuilding, said: “Time and again we have made it clear that this union will, without reservation or hesitation, defend every last job of our members in the defence industry. | Ian Waddell, Unite national officer for aerospace and shipbuilding, said: “Time and again we have made it clear that this union will, without reservation or hesitation, defend every last job of our members in the defence industry. |
| “To be abundantly clear, today’s vote is not about Trident – it’s about replacing our ageing Vanguard submarines with new successor submarines and tens of thousands of jobs rely on the submarine programme. | “To be abundantly clear, today’s vote is not about Trident – it’s about replacing our ageing Vanguard submarines with new successor submarines and tens of thousands of jobs rely on the submarine programme. |
| “Our clear message to politicians is that this union will never support any public policy which sees our members and their communities thrown on the scrapheap. This position was reaffirmed by members from right across the economy and the country at our policy conference last week.” | “Our clear message to politicians is that this union will never support any public policy which sees our members and their communities thrown on the scrapheap. This position was reaffirmed by members from right across the economy and the country at our policy conference last week.” |
| Thornberry said she would be abstaining on the vote because it was the government “playing games with the Labour party and trying to embarrass us” when it looked likely Trident would be renewed in any event. | Thornberry said she would be abstaining on the vote because it was the government “playing games with the Labour party and trying to embarrass us” when it looked likely Trident would be renewed in any event. |
| Thornberry’s review of the party’s defence policy had been scheduled to be delivered a fortnight ago but was suspended in the wake of the Brexit vote on 23 June. | |
| “We were going to deliver the week after Brexit, but Brexit happened and that has an effect on all of the factors,” she said on Monday. “The Labour party has to come to a collective decision by collecting evidence in a proper way.” | “We were going to deliver the week after Brexit, but Brexit happened and that has an effect on all of the factors,” she said on Monday. “The Labour party has to come to a collective decision by collecting evidence in a proper way.” |
| The government says that replacing the Vanguard class of submarine, which carries the Trident missiles, with four new Successor class boats is likely to cost £31bn over 20 years, with a £10bn contingency. | The government says that replacing the Vanguard class of submarine, which carries the Trident missiles, with four new Successor class boats is likely to cost £31bn over 20 years, with a £10bn contingency. |
| However, Thornberry said there had been no information about infrastructure and maintenance, or the warhead costs. The Campaign for Nuclear Disarmament puts the overall cost over the 30 years at £205bn, including in-service costs. | However, Thornberry said there had been no information about infrastructure and maintenance, or the warhead costs. The Campaign for Nuclear Disarmament puts the overall cost over the 30 years at £205bn, including in-service costs. |