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| Donald Trump’s Safe Choice for No. 2 Frees Hillary Clinton’s Hand, Strategists Say | Donald Trump’s Safe Choice for No. 2 Frees Hillary Clinton’s Hand, Strategists Say |
| (about 5 hours later) | |
| CLEVELAND — As Hillary Clinton prepares to announce her running mate later this week, the political calculations have suddenly changed. | CLEVELAND — As Hillary Clinton prepares to announce her running mate later this week, the political calculations have suddenly changed. |
| Had Donald J. Trump chosen a woman or a minority as his vice-presidential candidate, Mrs. Clinton would have faced pressure from liberals to make her own bold choice. If Mr. Trump had picked a fiery raconteur like Newt Gingrich or Gov. Chris Christie of New Jersey, two of his finalists, the decision would have given Mrs. Clinton pause about putting a young fresh face on the debate stage this fall — rather than an attack dog, according to several Clinton campaign advisers. And if the Republican No. 2 was from a critical swing state, the electoral map might have loomed larger in her considerations. | Had Donald J. Trump chosen a woman or a minority as his vice-presidential candidate, Mrs. Clinton would have faced pressure from liberals to make her own bold choice. If Mr. Trump had picked a fiery raconteur like Newt Gingrich or Gov. Chris Christie of New Jersey, two of his finalists, the decision would have given Mrs. Clinton pause about putting a young fresh face on the debate stage this fall — rather than an attack dog, according to several Clinton campaign advisers. And if the Republican No. 2 was from a critical swing state, the electoral map might have loomed larger in her considerations. |
| Instead, Mr. Trump picked Gov. Mike Pence of Indiana — a button-down, deeply conservative white man from a Republican-leaning state whose record appeals strongly to his party’s base. | Instead, Mr. Trump picked Gov. Mike Pence of Indiana — a button-down, deeply conservative white man from a Republican-leaning state whose record appeals strongly to his party’s base. |
| By choosing someone so conventional, Mr. Trump has made it easier for Mrs. Clinton to follow suit with an unadventurous pick of her own, like Senator Tim Kaine of Virginia or Agriculture Secretary Tom Vilsack, a former governor of Iowa. She could send Housing Secretary Julián Castro out to debate Mr. Pence without fearing a blowout. Or she could pick Labor Secretary Thomas Perez, who is from the reliably Democratic state of Maryland. | By choosing someone so conventional, Mr. Trump has made it easier for Mrs. Clinton to follow suit with an unadventurous pick of her own, like Senator Tim Kaine of Virginia or Agriculture Secretary Tom Vilsack, a former governor of Iowa. She could send Housing Secretary Julián Castro out to debate Mr. Pence without fearing a blowout. Or she could pick Labor Secretary Thomas Perez, who is from the reliably Democratic state of Maryland. |
| Mrs. Clinton still has internal Democratic Party politics to contend with, but Mr. Pence is a balm: He puts little if any added pressure on her. | Mrs. Clinton still has internal Democratic Party politics to contend with, but Mr. Pence is a balm: He puts little if any added pressure on her. |
| “For Trump to get elected, he’s got to expand the group of people he’s talking to and attracting,” said Steve Elmendorf, a veteran Democratic strategist and lobbyist and a Clinton ally. “A different choice by Trump might have changed the electoral calculation for her. But with Pence, Trump will still be losing among women, blacks and Hispanics.” | “For Trump to get elected, he’s got to expand the group of people he’s talking to and attracting,” said Steve Elmendorf, a veteran Democratic strategist and lobbyist and a Clinton ally. “A different choice by Trump might have changed the electoral calculation for her. But with Pence, Trump will still be losing among women, blacks and Hispanics.” |
| Mark McKinnon, a key strategist on George W. Bush’s presidential campaigns, said Mr. Pence may have been a good choice for Mr. Trump, but his selection also benefited Mrs. Clinton. | Mark McKinnon, a key strategist on George W. Bush’s presidential campaigns, said Mr. Pence may have been a good choice for Mr. Trump, but his selection also benefited Mrs. Clinton. |
| “The choice does not cross-pressure her in any way with constituencies she needs,” Mr. McKinnon said. “It’s unlikely that any alarms are going off at Clinton headquarters. So it leaves her free to hit the snooze button with an equally safe choice.” | “The choice does not cross-pressure her in any way with constituencies she needs,” Mr. McKinnon said. “It’s unlikely that any alarms are going off at Clinton headquarters. So it leaves her free to hit the snooze button with an equally safe choice.” |
| In a speech on Monday at the American Federation of Teachers convention in Minneapolis, Mrs. Clinton showed her first lines of attack against Mr. Pence, calling him “one of the most extreme vice-presidential picks in a generation” who has “worked to undermine the rights of women, workers, L.G.B.T. Americans and immigrants.” | In a speech on Monday at the American Federation of Teachers convention in Minneapolis, Mrs. Clinton showed her first lines of attack against Mr. Pence, calling him “one of the most extreme vice-presidential picks in a generation” who has “worked to undermine the rights of women, workers, L.G.B.T. Americans and immigrants.” |
| For all the differences between the politically unorthodox Mr. Trump and the policy-driven Mrs. Clinton, they both appear to be embracing a golden rule of vice-presidential selections: First, do no harm. Mr. Trump showed an uncharacteristic abundance of caution in choosing Mr. Pence, the obvious favorite of Washington Republicans like House Speaker Paul D. Ryan and others who have expressed ambivalence about Mr. Trump. | |
| Selecting a fellow “pirate,” as Mr. Gingrich has described both himself and Mr. Trump, would have unsettled party leaders and left them bracing on a daily basis for salty language from the candidates and mutiny from disaffected Republicans. | Selecting a fellow “pirate,” as Mr. Gingrich has described both himself and Mr. Trump, would have unsettled party leaders and left them bracing on a daily basis for salty language from the candidates and mutiny from disaffected Republicans. |
| “If Trump had picked me, Hillary would have needed a good debater, for sure,” Mr. Gingrich said in an interview. | “If Trump had picked me, Hillary would have needed a good debater, for sure,” Mr. Gingrich said in an interview. |
| For Mrs. Clinton, the do-no-harm principle means not choosing a running mate who would exacerbate her unpopularity with white men in crucial industrial and southern states like Ohio and Virginia, and not choosing a candidate who could undercut her emphasis on strong national security experience. Such thinking could count against Senator Elizabeth Warren of Massachusetts, Mr. Castro, Mr. Perez and others on her list. | For Mrs. Clinton, the do-no-harm principle means not choosing a running mate who would exacerbate her unpopularity with white men in crucial industrial and southern states like Ohio and Virginia, and not choosing a candidate who could undercut her emphasis on strong national security experience. Such thinking could count against Senator Elizabeth Warren of Massachusetts, Mr. Castro, Mr. Perez and others on her list. |
| More than anything, she is looking to make a careful and responsible choice, her advisers say. | More than anything, she is looking to make a careful and responsible choice, her advisers say. |
| “The first criteria is a person who is ready to be president of the United States, and someone who has the skill set and track record to get things done that will make a difference in people’s lives,” said Joel Benenson, the Clinton campaign’s senior strategist. He added that the choice of Mr. Pence was immaterial to Mrs. Clinton, saying, “I don’t think one candidate’s choice of a running mate really factors into who the other candidate picks.” | “The first criteria is a person who is ready to be president of the United States, and someone who has the skill set and track record to get things done that will make a difference in people’s lives,” said Joel Benenson, the Clinton campaign’s senior strategist. He added that the choice of Mr. Pence was immaterial to Mrs. Clinton, saying, “I don’t think one candidate’s choice of a running mate really factors into who the other candidate picks.” |
| Yet presidential nominees have their opponents very much in mind as they try to create the strongest possible ticket. | Yet presidential nominees have their opponents very much in mind as they try to create the strongest possible ticket. |
| In 2012 Mitt Romney chose Mr. Ryan to energize conservatives and sharpen his ticket’s policy differences with the Obama administration. In 2008, Barack Obama wanted Joseph R. Biden Jr.’s experience and perspective from decades in government. Senator John McCain chose Sarah Palin to appeal to conservatives and reinforce his outsider image. | In 2012 Mitt Romney chose Mr. Ryan to energize conservatives and sharpen his ticket’s policy differences with the Obama administration. In 2008, Barack Obama wanted Joseph R. Biden Jr.’s experience and perspective from decades in government. Senator John McCain chose Sarah Palin to appeal to conservatives and reinforce his outsider image. |
| In the current race, both Democrats and Republicans say that Mrs. Clinton has little incentive to risk a game-changing pick like Ms. Warren to counter Mr. Trump’s selection of Mr. Pence, who is little known and so conservative that he may do little to win over moderates and independents. | In the current race, both Democrats and Republicans say that Mrs. Clinton has little incentive to risk a game-changing pick like Ms. Warren to counter Mr. Trump’s selection of Mr. Pence, who is little known and so conservative that he may do little to win over moderates and independents. |
| “Secretary Clinton’s goal should be to offer someone who won’t be a big story, someone unquestionably qualified but without much fanfare or controversy,” said Mike DuHaime, who was the top strategist for Mr. Christie’s presidential campaign. “Her goal should be to keep the focus of the campaign on Donald Trump and off of her and her running mate.” | “Secretary Clinton’s goal should be to offer someone who won’t be a big story, someone unquestionably qualified but without much fanfare or controversy,” said Mike DuHaime, who was the top strategist for Mr. Christie’s presidential campaign. “Her goal should be to keep the focus of the campaign on Donald Trump and off of her and her running mate.” |
| Mrs. Clinton sorely needs to win over liberals and millennials, who strongly favored Senator Bernie Sanders of Vermont in the Democratic primary; many of them still doubt her trustworthiness as a progressive and oppose her stands on Wall Street reform, free trade, the minimum wage and fracking. But with these voters, too, Mr. Pence gives Mrs. Clinton some breathing room because of his hard-line conservative positions on abortion and gay rights. | Mrs. Clinton sorely needs to win over liberals and millennials, who strongly favored Senator Bernie Sanders of Vermont in the Democratic primary; many of them still doubt her trustworthiness as a progressive and oppose her stands on Wall Street reform, free trade, the minimum wage and fracking. But with these voters, too, Mr. Pence gives Mrs. Clinton some breathing room because of his hard-line conservative positions on abortion and gay rights. |
| Mr. Pence has signed some of the most restrictive abortion laws in the nation, including a bill banning abortion based on a fetus’s race, sex, or disabilities like Down syndrome. He has also opposed same-sex marriage and allowing gays to serve in the military and transgender people to use bathrooms of their choosing. (Mr. Trump has said he opposes abortion with exceptions and that he would be far better for gay Americans than Mrs. Clinton.) | Mr. Pence has signed some of the most restrictive abortion laws in the nation, including a bill banning abortion based on a fetus’s race, sex, or disabilities like Down syndrome. He has also opposed same-sex marriage and allowing gays to serve in the military and transgender people to use bathrooms of their choosing. (Mr. Trump has said he opposes abortion with exceptions and that he would be far better for gay Americans than Mrs. Clinton.) |
| While many younger voters would like Mrs. Clinton to pick a liberal like Mr. Sanders or Ms. Warren as her running mate, and are wary of, or even hostile to, moderates like Mr. Kaine, Mrs. Clinton’s allies say that Mr. Pence’s positions are so toxic to these voters that they will ultimately unify behind the Democratic ticket. | While many younger voters would like Mrs. Clinton to pick a liberal like Mr. Sanders or Ms. Warren as her running mate, and are wary of, or even hostile to, moderates like Mr. Kaine, Mrs. Clinton’s allies say that Mr. Pence’s positions are so toxic to these voters that they will ultimately unify behind the Democratic ticket. |
| “Pence is so conservative, and a traditional Republican white guy, it frees her up to pick whoever she wants,” said Richard Socarides, a Clinton supporter and gay rights advocate who was an adviser to former President Bill Clinton. | “Pence is so conservative, and a traditional Republican white guy, it frees her up to pick whoever she wants,” said Richard Socarides, a Clinton supporter and gay rights advocate who was an adviser to former President Bill Clinton. |
| But Mr. Gingrich, for one, is skeptical that Mrs. Clinton will have it easy after she announces her selection, which is expected as early as Friday. | But Mr. Gingrich, for one, is skeptical that Mrs. Clinton will have it easy after she announces her selection, which is expected as early as Friday. |
| “She has a twofold problem: Can she find someone who will appeal to undecided independents who see her as crooked or hopeless, and can she find someone who doesn’t continue this headlong rush to the left?” Mr. Gingrich said. “And the left wing of her party is insatiable. Pence may not make her life more complicated, but she still has a very hard problem to solve.” | “She has a twofold problem: Can she find someone who will appeal to undecided independents who see her as crooked or hopeless, and can she find someone who doesn’t continue this headlong rush to the left?” Mr. Gingrich said. “And the left wing of her party is insatiable. Pence may not make her life more complicated, but she still has a very hard problem to solve.” |