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| Trump's 'vision of violence' may be off but city homicides are a troubling issue | Trump's 'vision of violence' may be off but city homicides are a troubling issue |
| (about 1 month later) | |
| Donald Trump’s “vision of violence and chaos everywhere” does not reflect the experience of most Americans, Barack Obama told reporters on Friday. | Donald Trump’s “vision of violence and chaos everywhere” does not reflect the experience of most Americans, Barack Obama told reporters on Friday. |
| As the president argued, the broader picture of spiraling violence Trump painted in his convention speech on Thursday night does not “jibe” with the actual data on crime trends. | As the president argued, the broader picture of spiraling violence Trump painted in his convention speech on Thursday night does not “jibe” with the actual data on crime trends. |
| “The violent crime rate in America has been lower during my presidency than any time in the last tree, four decades,” Obama said. | “The violent crime rate in America has been lower during my presidency than any time in the last tree, four decades,” Obama said. |
| But the Republican nominee did put a spotlight on a real and troubling trend: a 17% increase in homicide across the nation’s 50 largest cities. A justice department-funded study of 2015 homicide trends concluded that the increase Trump cited is statistically significant, “real and nearly unprecedented”. | But the Republican nominee did put a spotlight on a real and troubling trend: a 17% increase in homicide across the nation’s 50 largest cities. A justice department-funded study of 2015 homicide trends concluded that the increase Trump cited is statistically significant, “real and nearly unprecedented”. |
| Most of the increase in homicides was concentrated in only 10 cities, all with large African American populations. An analysis by the liberal Brennan Center found there was no corresponding increase in overall crime and only a 3% increase in violent crime in the nation’s 30 largest cities last year. | Most of the increase in homicides was concentrated in only 10 cities, all with large African American populations. An analysis by the liberal Brennan Center found there was no corresponding increase in overall crime and only a 3% increase in violent crime in the nation’s 30 largest cities last year. |
| The author of the justice department-funded study, Richard Rosenfeld, a prominent criminologist from the University of Missouri-St Louis, said the increase in homicide was cause for serious concern. | The author of the justice department-funded study, Richard Rosenfeld, a prominent criminologist from the University of Missouri-St Louis, said the increase in homicide was cause for serious concern. |
| Last year, Baltimore saw 130 more citizens murdered than the year before, driving the city’s homicide rate to its highest ever level. This year, Chicago has seen 100 more citizens murdered than at the same time last year, and 600 more people shot. | Last year, Baltimore saw 130 more citizens murdered than the year before, driving the city’s homicide rate to its highest ever level. This year, Chicago has seen 100 more citizens murdered than at the same time last year, and 600 more people shot. |
| The dramatic increases in a few cities, coming in the same year as nationwide protests against police violence, have created a political flashpoint. Some conservatives have argued that the “demonization” of the police after killings of unarmed black citizens has led to an increase in urban violence, a trend called the “Ferguson effect” after the Missouri city where Michael Brown, an unarmed 18-year-old, was killed in 2014. | The dramatic increases in a few cities, coming in the same year as nationwide protests against police violence, have created a political flashpoint. Some conservatives have argued that the “demonization” of the police after killings of unarmed black citizens has led to an increase in urban violence, a trend called the “Ferguson effect” after the Missouri city where Michael Brown, an unarmed 18-year-old, was killed in 2014. |
| Advocates pushing for police accountability and an end to police killings of black Americans – widely regarded on the left as a new American civil rights movement – have called that argument “a reactionary attempt to undermine the movement”. | Advocates pushing for police accountability and an end to police killings of black Americans – widely regarded on the left as a new American civil rights movement – have called that argument “a reactionary attempt to undermine the movement”. |
| Trump blamed the 17% increase in homicide in large cities last year on the Obama administration’s enforcement policies. | Trump blamed the 17% increase in homicide in large cities last year on the Obama administration’s enforcement policies. |
| The murder rate today, the violence rate today, is far lower than when Ronald Reagan was president | The murder rate today, the violence rate today, is far lower than when Ronald Reagan was president |
| “Decades of progress made in bringing down crime are now being reversed by this administration’s rollback of criminal enforcement,” he said. | “Decades of progress made in bringing down crime are now being reversed by this administration’s rollback of criminal enforcement,” he said. |
| On Friday, even the most conservative voice in the national homicide debate said this explanation was implausible. | On Friday, even the most conservative voice in the national homicide debate said this explanation was implausible. |
| Heather Mac Donald, a fellow at the conservative Manhattan Institute and the leading theorist of the “Ferguson effect”, hailed Trump’s “unapologetic embrace of law and order”. | Heather Mac Donald, a fellow at the conservative Manhattan Institute and the leading theorist of the “Ferguson effect”, hailed Trump’s “unapologetic embrace of law and order”. |
| But, she wrote in an e-mail, “Trump is on less certain ground in attributing the crime increase to ‘this administration’s rollback of criminal enforcement’. The federal government is usually only a marginal player in actual crime fighting, which is overwhelmingly a local function.” | But, she wrote in an e-mail, “Trump is on less certain ground in attributing the crime increase to ‘this administration’s rollback of criminal enforcement’. The federal government is usually only a marginal player in actual crime fighting, which is overwhelmingly a local function.” |
| The Obama administration has pushed back sharply against the theory of the “Ferguson effect”, even when it has been postulated by FBI director James Comey, a member of Obama’s administration. | The Obama administration has pushed back sharply against the theory of the “Ferguson effect”, even when it has been postulated by FBI director James Comey, a member of Obama’s administration. |
| On Friday, Obama referred to the 17% homicide increase last year as an “uptick”. | On Friday, Obama referred to the 17% homicide increase last year as an “uptick”. |
| “Although it is true that we have seen an uptick in murders and violent crime in some cities this year, the fact of the matter is the murder rate today, the violence rate today, is far lower than when Ronald Reagan was president,” he told reporters. | “Although it is true that we have seen an uptick in murders and violent crime in some cities this year, the fact of the matter is the murder rate today, the violence rate today, is far lower than when Ronald Reagan was president,” he told reporters. |
| ‘Misrepresenting these facts only makes our job harder’ | ‘Misrepresenting these facts only makes our job harder’ |
| Nobody knows which factors are contributing to the increases in some cities, or how broad the increases may be. Data on how homicide has changed in the country overall – and whether smaller cities have also seen homicide increases – will not be released by the FBI until the fall. | Nobody knows which factors are contributing to the increases in some cities, or how broad the increases may be. Data on how homicide has changed in the country overall – and whether smaller cities have also seen homicide increases – will not be released by the FBI until the fall. |
| It is not clear whether homicide increases in some large cities reflect any national trend at all, or whether they are driven by different local factors. | It is not clear whether homicide increases in some large cities reflect any national trend at all, or whether they are driven by different local factors. |
| In Chicago, for instance, the spike in shootings and homicides corresponded closely to a drop in proactive policing activities, including arrests for homicides and non-fatal shootings, after the release of a video showing the police killing of 17-year-old Laquan McDonald, according to city data analyzed by FiveThirtyEight. | In Chicago, for instance, the spike in shootings and homicides corresponded closely to a drop in proactive policing activities, including arrests for homicides and non-fatal shootings, after the release of a video showing the police killing of 17-year-old Laquan McDonald, according to city data analyzed by FiveThirtyEight. |
| But the increase in violence also comes in the middle of a state budget standoff that has forced social service agencies to lay off workers and slash programs. And the increase also followed the sudden closing of many branches of a local gang violence prevention program that the Justice Department had labeled “promising”. | But the increase in violence also comes in the middle of a state budget standoff that has forced social service agencies to lay off workers and slash programs. And the increase also followed the sudden closing of many branches of a local gang violence prevention program that the Justice Department had labeled “promising”. |
| Mac Donald, the “Ferguson effect” champion and a fellow at the same institute that famously published research predicting the rise of “juvenile super-predators”, called Trump’s speech “a radical, bold, and important change of course in the prevailing discourse about policing and crime”. | Mac Donald, the “Ferguson effect” champion and a fellow at the same institute that famously published research predicting the rise of “juvenile super-predators”, called Trump’s speech “a radical, bold, and important change of course in the prevailing discourse about policing and crime”. |
| Unless the rhetoric around policing changes at every level of government, more blue and more black lives will be lost | Unless the rhetoric around policing changes at every level of government, more blue and more black lives will be lost |
| “The speech could not represent a sharper distinction from the Obama-Clinton message, relentlessly delivered, that our criminal justice system and our nation’s police are infected with lethal bias,” she wrote. | “The speech could not represent a sharper distinction from the Obama-Clinton message, relentlessly delivered, that our criminal justice system and our nation’s police are infected with lethal bias,” she wrote. |
| “Unless the rhetoric around policing changes at every level of government, more blue and more black lives will be lost.” | “Unless the rhetoric around policing changes at every level of government, more blue and more black lives will be lost.” |
| Inimai Chettiar, director of the Brennan Center’s justice program, said Trump’s rhetoric was more reminiscent of the 80s and 90s, when homicide and violent crime were spiking nationwide, than it was of recent election cycles. She called his use of crime statistics “very misleading” and “dangerous”. | Inimai Chettiar, director of the Brennan Center’s justice program, said Trump’s rhetoric was more reminiscent of the 80s and 90s, when homicide and violent crime were spiking nationwide, than it was of recent election cycles. She called his use of crime statistics “very misleading” and “dangerous”. |
| “People who are taking these crime statistics out of context are instilling fear in Americans unnecessarily,” she said. | “People who are taking these crime statistics out of context are instilling fear in Americans unnecessarily,” she said. |
| The homicide increase last year was so concentrated, Chettiar said, that just three cities – Washington DC, Chicago and Baltimore – accounted for half the total increase in the 30 largest cities. It was no accident that those were the city crime statistics that Trump cited in his speech, she said. | The homicide increase last year was so concentrated, Chettiar said, that just three cities – Washington DC, Chicago and Baltimore – accounted for half the total increase in the 30 largest cities. It was no accident that those were the city crime statistics that Trump cited in his speech, she said. |
| Ronald Serpas, a former police chief who leads Law Enforcement Leaders, an organization of law enforcement officials who support criminal justice reform, said in a statement on Friday that Trump’s rhetoric on crime makes police officers’ lives more difficult. | Ronald Serpas, a former police chief who leads Law Enforcement Leaders, an organization of law enforcement officials who support criminal justice reform, said in a statement on Friday that Trump’s rhetoric on crime makes police officers’ lives more difficult. |
| “What we heard runs counter to what American law enforcement knows to be true: our country’s crime rates are at historic lows,” he said. “Misrepresenting these facts only makes our job harder.” | “What we heard runs counter to what American law enforcement knows to be true: our country’s crime rates are at historic lows,” he said. “Misrepresenting these facts only makes our job harder.” |
| Trump’s answer to the increase in violence in a few cities is the wrong one, said Phillip Atiba Goff, a leading researcher on racial bias in policing and the president of the Center for Policing Equity. | Trump’s answer to the increase in violence in a few cities is the wrong one, said Phillip Atiba Goff, a leading researcher on racial bias in policing and the president of the Center for Policing Equity. |
| “We’ve done ‘law and order’ before. And it doesn’t reduce crime. It criminalizes communities,” he wrote in an email. | “We’ve done ‘law and order’ before. And it doesn’t reduce crime. It criminalizes communities,” he wrote in an email. |
| Thomas Abt, a Harvard Kennedy School researcher who worked on violence prevention policy for the state of New York and in Obama’s justice department, criticized Trump for invoking fears of violence. | Thomas Abt, a Harvard Kennedy School researcher who worked on violence prevention policy for the state of New York and in Obama’s justice department, criticized Trump for invoking fears of violence. |
| According to the hard numbers, the public and the police are safer than they have been since the 1960s | According to the hard numbers, the public and the police are safer than they have been since the 1960s |
| “According to the hard numbers, the public and the police are safer than they have been since the 1960s,” he wrote, adding that Trump did not provide any clear plan for making cities safer. | “According to the hard numbers, the public and the police are safer than they have been since the 1960s,” he wrote, adding that Trump did not provide any clear plan for making cities safer. |
| “If Trump is going to make violence reduction a central plank of his platform, he needs to provide concrete solutions,” he wrote in an email. “All he told the American public last night is that he would ‘appoint the best people’, as he often does. That’s not a policy.” | “If Trump is going to make violence reduction a central plank of his platform, he needs to provide concrete solutions,” he wrote in an email. “All he told the American public last night is that he would ‘appoint the best people’, as he often does. That’s not a policy.” |
| Goff said research on policing and crime also did not support the sweeping conclusions Trump drew – particularly when it came to blaming immigrants for an increase in violence. | Goff said research on policing and crime also did not support the sweeping conclusions Trump drew – particularly when it came to blaming immigrants for an increase in violence. |
| “Nearly every peer-reviewed study reveals that immigrants [documented or undocumented] reduce crime in the communities in which they live,” he wrote. “There is also evidence that the are more compliant with the law and have more faith in legal institutions. That’s a recipe for law abiding.” | “Nearly every peer-reviewed study reveals that immigrants [documented or undocumented] reduce crime in the communities in which they live,” he wrote. “There is also evidence that the are more compliant with the law and have more faith in legal institutions. That’s a recipe for law abiding.” |
| The justice department-funded homicide study found that it was the cities with relatively smaller percentages of Hispanic residents that saw the biggest increases in homicide last year. | The justice department-funded homicide study found that it was the cities with relatively smaller percentages of Hispanic residents that saw the biggest increases in homicide last year. |
| Trump’s focus on homicide increases, though, may renew the debate over what could be causing them – and what should be done to address them | Trump’s focus on homicide increases, though, may renew the debate over what could be causing them – and what should be done to address them |
| Comey, the FBI director, has repeatedly highlighted the increase in homicides in some cities. In May he said he was worried the deaths of men of color were being ignored. | Comey, the FBI director, has repeatedly highlighted the increase in homicides in some cities. In May he said he was worried the deaths of men of color were being ignored. |
| “The people dying are almost entirely black and Latino men,” he told reporters. “It’s a complicated, hard issue, but the stakes couldn’t be higher. A whole lot of people are dying. I don’t want to drive around it.” | “The people dying are almost entirely black and Latino men,” he told reporters. “It’s a complicated, hard issue, but the stakes couldn’t be higher. A whole lot of people are dying. I don’t want to drive around it.” |
| Comey drew a connection between protests over police killings and the increase in homicide, saying police leaders across the country had told him many officers were pulling back in their everyday policing because they were afraid of being the subject of the next viral video. | Comey drew a connection between protests over police killings and the increase in homicide, saying police leaders across the country had told him many officers were pulling back in their everyday policing because they were afraid of being the subject of the next viral video. |
| The Obama administration has repeatedly pushed back on those claims, suggesting there was no data to back them up. | The Obama administration has repeatedly pushed back on those claims, suggesting there was no data to back them up. |
| Richard Rosenfeld, the St Louis criminologist who authored the justice department-funded study on 2015 homicide trends, said his analysis of the data convinced him that there could be some connection between police killings of citizens, protests, a decrease in trust in law enforcement among black Americans, and an increase in community violence. | Richard Rosenfeld, the St Louis criminologist who authored the justice department-funded study on 2015 homicide trends, said his analysis of the data convinced him that there could be some connection between police killings of citizens, protests, a decrease in trust in law enforcement among black Americans, and an increase in community violence. |
| What exactly that connection might be, he said, was still far from clear. | What exactly that connection might be, he said, was still far from clear. |
| “These aren’t flukes or blips, this is a real increase,” he told Guardian US this spring. “It was worrisome. We need to figure out why it happened.” | “These aren’t flukes or blips, this is a real increase,” he told Guardian US this spring. “It was worrisome. We need to figure out why it happened.” |