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You can find the current article at its original source at https://www.theguardian.com/business/live/2016/jul/27/uk-gdp-economy-growth-brexit-referendum-pound-markets-live
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| Chancellor Hammond claims UK economic fundamentals are strong despite Brexit fears – live updates | Chancellor Hammond claims UK economic fundamentals are strong despite Brexit fears – live updates |
| (35 minutes later) | |
| 12.46pm BST | |
| 12:46 | |
| Here’s more City reaction to the growth figures. | |
| U.K. Q2 GDP 0.6% showed economy doing ok upto ref, as lead indicators suggested. Same leading ind now going south, so watch closely @afneil | |
| Useful chart from Capital Economics underlines that basically all the net GDP growth in Q2 happened in April pic.twitter.com/sJDwgjQQoQ | |
| UK economy picks up speed in second quarter but signs of slowdown appear. More here: https://t.co/n98va2k9WM pic.twitter.com/g9h7qVdph4 | |
| 12.31pm BST | |
| 12:31 | |
| Retail sales take a tumble | |
| Bad news: UK retail sales have fallen at the fastest pace in over four years in July this month. | |
| The latest survey, from the CBI, bolsters concerns that the economy is weakening fast - unravelling the solid growth in the last quarter. | |
| Some 24% of retailers said that sales volumes were up in July compared with a year earlier, while 38% said they were down, giving a rounded balance of -14%. That’s the weakest reading since January 2012. | |
| The CBI says: | |
| Within retail, sales by grocers, and furniture and carpets stores were the main drivers of the drop in overall volumes. But some sectors bucked the trend, with non-specialised department stores and retailers of footwear and leather goods reporting higher volumes. | |
| Sam Tombs of Pantheon Economics says it’s worrying news: | |
| First retail survey solely covering the post-ref period and guess what? It's collapsed. CBI reported sales bal. at lowest level since Jan 12 | |
| 12.03pm BST | 12.03pm BST |
| 12:03 | 12:03 |
| Ireland slashes growth forecasts after Brexit vote | Ireland slashes growth forecasts after Brexit vote |
| Lisa O'Carroll | Lisa O'Carroll |
| Ireland’s Central Bank has downgraded its forecasts for GDP growth for 2016 and 2017 citing the adverse affect of Brexit on the economy. | Ireland’s Central Bank has downgraded its forecasts for GDP growth for 2016 and 2017 citing the adverse affect of Brexit on the economy. |
| Britain is Ireland’s biggest export partner while Ireland is Britain’s fifth biggest trading partner with €1.5bn in transactions a week. | Britain is Ireland’s biggest export partner while Ireland is Britain’s fifth biggest trading partner with €1.5bn in transactions a week. |
| The Central Bank said it believed the Irish economy, which is one of the fastest growing in Europe, would continue to grow but that Brexit was negative for the economy. | The Central Bank said it believed the Irish economy, which is one of the fastest growing in Europe, would continue to grow but that Brexit was negative for the economy. |
| It said it expected a prolonged period of uncertainty while the UK was negotiating its Brexit package which would damage investor confidence. | It said it expected a prolonged period of uncertainty while the UK was negotiating its Brexit package which would damage investor confidence. |
| In a statement Ireland’s Central Bank chief economist, Gabriel Fagan, said while the economy’s reliance on the British export market had weakened over recent decades. | In a statement Ireland’s Central Bank chief economist, Gabriel Fagan, said while the economy’s reliance on the British export market had weakened over recent decades. |
| However... | However... |
| “Some sectors, including agri-food, clothing, footwear and tourism continue to have a relatively high dependency on exports to the UK and, consequently, could be affected disproportionately”. | “Some sectors, including agri-food, clothing, footwear and tourism continue to have a relatively high dependency on exports to the UK and, consequently, could be affected disproportionately”. |
| Tourism is expected to take a particular hit because of the weakened pound. | Tourism is expected to take a particular hit because of the weakened pound. |
| Among Ireland’s top 10 exports to Britain are food and drink and packaged medicines while the UK’s exports to Britain including gas, cars and pharmaceuticals. | Among Ireland’s top 10 exports to Britain are food and drink and packaged medicines while the UK’s exports to Britain including gas, cars and pharmaceuticals. |
| Edgar Morganrath, associate research professor at Dublin’s Economic and Social Research Institute has said that custom paperwork could add three to four per cent on costs for exporters to the UK, in line with additional costs of exporting to non-EU territories including US and Canada. | Edgar Morganrath, associate research professor at Dublin’s Economic and Social Research Institute has said that custom paperwork could add three to four per cent on costs for exporters to the UK, in line with additional costs of exporting to non-EU territories including US and Canada. |
| Here’s the full report | Here’s the full report |
| Updated | |
| at 12.25pm BST | |
| 11.53am BST | 11.53am BST |
| 11:53 | 11:53 |
| Britain’s growth since the crisis is less impressive once you adjust for the increase in population: | Britain’s growth since the crisis is less impressive once you adjust for the increase in population: |
| On a per-capita basis, the economy is only 1.3% bigger than in 2008, not the 7.7% headline increase report today. | On a per-capita basis, the economy is only 1.3% bigger than in 2008, not the 7.7% headline increase report today. |
| Matthew Whittaker of the Resolution Foundation shows how this is much worse than in previous recessions: | Matthew Whittaker of the Resolution Foundation shows how this is much worse than in previous recessions: |
| Q2 2016 @ONS data shows GDP per head 1.3% above Q407 peak. Much lower than at the same point post-80 & 90 recessions pic.twitter.com/Wkz5YjRuKy | Q2 2016 @ONS data shows GDP per head 1.3% above Q407 peak. Much lower than at the same point post-80 & 90 recessions pic.twitter.com/Wkz5YjRuKy |
| Updated | Updated |
| at 11.59am BST | at 11.59am BST |
| 11.36am BST | 11.36am BST |
| 11:36 | 11:36 |
| Andy Bruce of Reuters has highlighted how April provided the bulk of the growth in the last quarter: | Andy Bruce of Reuters has highlighted how April provided the bulk of the growth in the last quarter: |
| Strong Q2 UK #GDP? Actually it's really just an April surge followed by... not a lot else. pic.twitter.com/hofSo9kEx7 | Strong Q2 UK #GDP? Actually it's really just an April surge followed by... not a lot else. pic.twitter.com/hofSo9kEx7 |
| 11.22am BST | 11.22am BST |
| 11:22 | 11:22 |
| If you’re just tuning in, here’s our news story on today’s growth figures: | If you’re just tuning in, here’s our news story on today’s growth figures: |
| Related: UK economy grew by 0.6% before Brexit vote | Related: UK economy grew by 0.6% before Brexit vote |
| 11.13am BST | 11.13am BST |
| 11:13 | 11:13 |
| Andrew Sentance, senior economic adviser at PwC, fears that Britain’s economy is entering a period of weak growth, despite the forecast-beating performance in the last quarter: | Andrew Sentance, senior economic adviser at PwC, fears that Britain’s economy is entering a period of weak growth, despite the forecast-beating performance in the last quarter: |
| “The pick up in growth in the UK in the second quarter is consistent with other data - for employment, retail sales and yesterday’s CBI survey of manufacturers. | “The pick up in growth in the UK in the second quarter is consistent with other data - for employment, retail sales and yesterday’s CBI survey of manufacturers. |
| “However, we also know that the EU Referendum result has sent a shockwave through the business world and we should expect much slower growth this quarter - the main scenario in our latest PwC Economic Outlook suggests growth slowing to around 1.6% this year. 2017 is likely to see even more sluggish growth - our central view is for GDP to increase by just 0.6% next year. | “However, we also know that the EU Referendum result has sent a shockwave through the business world and we should expect much slower growth this quarter - the main scenario in our latest PwC Economic Outlook suggests growth slowing to around 1.6% this year. 2017 is likely to see even more sluggish growth - our central view is for GDP to increase by just 0.6% next year. |
| 11.03am BST | 11.03am BST |
| 11:03 | 11:03 |
| Once upon a time, Britain’s chancellor would have celebrated today’s growth figures by donning a florescent jacket and building a wall. | Once upon a time, Britain’s chancellor would have celebrated today’s growth figures by donning a florescent jacket and building a wall. |
| But Philip Hammond doesn’t shares George Osborne’s love of hard hats; so he’s decamped to London City Airport this morning. | But Philip Hammond doesn’t shares George Osborne’s love of hard hats; so he’s decamped to London City Airport this morning. |
| He’s there to announce a £344m expansion programme for the airport, meaning more space for planes and an enlarged terminal to house extra passengers. | He’s there to announce a £344m expansion programme for the airport, meaning more space for planes and an enlarged terminal to house extra passengers. |
| 10.39am BST | 10.39am BST |
| 10:39 | 10:39 |
| Today’s report shows that “dire predictions” that the economy would grind to a halt before the EU referendum were false, says Peter Rosenstreich of Swissquote Bank. | Today’s report shows that “dire predictions” that the economy would grind to a halt before the EU referendum were false, says Peter Rosenstreich of Swissquote Bank. |
| In actuality, growth accelerated as business raced ahead of the uncertain vote (lead by industrial output). This unexpected read indicates that the UK economy was in stronger position ahead of the vote then originally forecasted. | In actuality, growth accelerated as business raced ahead of the uncertain vote (lead by industrial output). This unexpected read indicates that the UK economy was in stronger position ahead of the vote then originally forecasted. |
| But Rosenstreich also fears Britain could now fall into recession: | But Rosenstreich also fears Britain could now fall into recession: |
| However, this preliminary estimate does not capture the post referendum fallout, which is likely to drive Q3 lower, possibly into recession. We remain bearish on the British pound as the UK economy will clearly go through a period of economic adjustment and likely BoE interest rate cuts.” | However, this preliminary estimate does not capture the post referendum fallout, which is likely to drive Q3 lower, possibly into recession. We remain bearish on the British pound as the UK economy will clearly go through a period of economic adjustment and likely BoE interest rate cuts.” |
| Updated | Updated |
| at 10.39am BST | at 10.39am BST |
| 10.38am BST | 10.38am BST |
| 10:38 | 10:38 |
| One decent quarter doesn’t mean Britain’s industrial sector has roared back, points out Ben Chu of the Independent: | One decent quarter doesn’t mean Britain’s industrial sector has roared back, points out Ben Chu of the Independent: |
| Here's that Q2 surge in manufacturing and industrial production in a post 2008 levels context: pic.twitter.com/zHVCZECEge | Here's that Q2 surge in manufacturing and industrial production in a post 2008 levels context: pic.twitter.com/zHVCZECEge |