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How’s Clinton Doing in the Rest of Pennsylvania? How’s Clinton Doing in the Rest of Pennsylvania?
(about 5 hours later)
On March 31, 2008, three weeks before Pennsylvania’s Democratic primary election, Hillary Clinton was on her way to hosting an economic round table at the Capitol Diner in Harrisburg when her campaign staff got wind of a protest that a group of truckers would be staging outside the event over rising gas prices. Before heading inside, Clinton listened at length to the truckers, and eventually invited two of them to join the round table inside. “They are doing what Americans do,” she said at the event. “When you finally get pushed to the end of the rope, you have to stand up and say enough.”On March 31, 2008, three weeks before Pennsylvania’s Democratic primary election, Hillary Clinton was on her way to hosting an economic round table at the Capitol Diner in Harrisburg when her campaign staff got wind of a protest that a group of truckers would be staging outside the event over rising gas prices. Before heading inside, Clinton listened at length to the truckers, and eventually invited two of them to join the round table inside. “They are doing what Americans do,” she said at the event. “When you finally get pushed to the end of the rope, you have to stand up and say enough.”
“Hillary struck me as someone who was willing to actually listen,” William Herr, one of the truckers, told me when I caught him on the phone driving through New Mexico on Wednesday. Clinton got Herr’s vote in the primary. Another trucker who met her, Mark Kirsch, is a registered Republican but says that he would most likely have voted for Clinton over John McCain in the general election. “She seemed very down to earth,” he says. “She seemed to relate to regular people.”“Hillary struck me as someone who was willing to actually listen,” William Herr, one of the truckers, told me when I caught him on the phone driving through New Mexico on Wednesday. Clinton got Herr’s vote in the primary. Another trucker who met her, Mark Kirsch, is a registered Republican but says that he would most likely have voted for Clinton over John McCain in the general election. “She seemed very down to earth,” he says. “She seemed to relate to regular people.”
Both men are now inclined to vote for Donald J. Trump. “She doesn’t even understand what the working class is anymore,” Kirsch says. “Trump might be an unmitigated ass,” Herr says. “But he’s our unmitigated ass.”Both men are now inclined to vote for Donald J. Trump. “She doesn’t even understand what the working class is anymore,” Kirsch says. “Trump might be an unmitigated ass,” Herr says. “But he’s our unmitigated ass.”
So far, one of the most surprising aspects of the Democratic National Convention unfolding two hours east of Harrisburg this week is how little of it has been dedicated to shoring up Clinton’s support with the white, working-class voters she aggressively courted in states like Pennsylvania eight years ago, the constituency she seems most likely to lose to Trump. The antigun, pro-abortion rights,immigrant-friendly and “stronger together” message in Philadelphia is no doubt intended to mollify both the Bernie Sanders loyalists and the minority groups that are expected to turn out heavily for Clinton in November. Watching the pageant unfold, it’s easy to forget that Clinton, running against Barack Obama in 2008, unabashedly offered herself as the safe haven for white, blue-collar Democrats. So far, one of the most surprising aspects of the Democratic National Convention unfolding two hours east of Harrisburg this week is how little of it has been dedicated to shoring up Clinton’s support with the white, working-class voters she aggressively courted in states like Pennsylvania eight years ago, the constituency she seems most likely to lose to Trump. The antigun, pro-abortion rights, immigrant-friendly and “stronger together” message in Philadelphia is no doubt intended to mollify both the Bernie Sanders loyalists and the minority groups that are expected to turn out heavily for Clinton in November. Watching the pageant unfold, it’s easy to forget that Clinton, running against Barack Obama in 2008, unabashedly offered herself as the safe haven for white, blue-collar Democrats.
Campaigning during the Pennsylvania primary, she bemoaned lousy trade deals — including the North American Free Trade Agreement, a signature accomplishment of Bill Clinton’s presidency. She vowed to bring manufacturing jobs back to Pennsylvania. She trash-talked China. And she condemned Obama for his offhand clinging-to-their-guns-and-religion remark as well as for his fidelity to the controversial pastor Jeremiah Wright. Clinton knew what all of this would get her. In an interview with USA Today that spring, she pointed to data showing that “Senator Obama’s support among working, hard-working Americans, white Americans, is weakening again, and how whites in both states” — meaning Ohio and Pennsylvania — “who had not completed college were supporting me.” In the end, she beat Obama by nine points in the primary. And in so doing, she unintentionally provided a blueprint for how Trump may be able to beat her in November.Campaigning during the Pennsylvania primary, she bemoaned lousy trade deals — including the North American Free Trade Agreement, a signature accomplishment of Bill Clinton’s presidency. She vowed to bring manufacturing jobs back to Pennsylvania. She trash-talked China. And she condemned Obama for his offhand clinging-to-their-guns-and-religion remark as well as for his fidelity to the controversial pastor Jeremiah Wright. Clinton knew what all of this would get her. In an interview with USA Today that spring, she pointed to data showing that “Senator Obama’s support among working, hard-working Americans, white Americans, is weakening again, and how whites in both states” — meaning Ohio and Pennsylvania — “who had not completed college were supporting me.” In the end, she beat Obama by nine points in the primary. And in so doing, she unintentionally provided a blueprint for how Trump may be able to beat her in November.
Recent history suggests that Clinton has nothing to worry about in Pennsylvania, which a Republican presidential candidate has not won since 1988. That’s been largely because the majority of the state’s votes come from Philadelphia and the surrounding three suburban “collar counties,” which are all heavily Democratic. (Obama carried the state in 2012 by 300,000 votes, almost entirely because of the 600,000-vote edge he received in Philadelphia and the surrounding counties.) But the Harrisburg-based G.O.P. pollster James Lee insists that this year could be different. “The Democrats have 900,000 more voters in this state than Republicans,” Lee says. “Despite that, in the primaries only 89,000 more Democrats than Republicans turned out to vote. Now, some of that is because the Clinton-Sanders race wasn’t as energizing. But because both Trump and Clinton have such high unfavorable ratings, there are indications that the overall turnout in Pennsylvania this November could be far lower than it was the past two cycles. And that means fewer minority and college-age voters in Philadelphia and the collar counties.”Recent history suggests that Clinton has nothing to worry about in Pennsylvania, which a Republican presidential candidate has not won since 1988. That’s been largely because the majority of the state’s votes come from Philadelphia and the surrounding three suburban “collar counties,” which are all heavily Democratic. (Obama carried the state in 2012 by 300,000 votes, almost entirely because of the 600,000-vote edge he received in Philadelphia and the surrounding counties.) But the Harrisburg-based G.O.P. pollster James Lee insists that this year could be different. “The Democrats have 900,000 more voters in this state than Republicans,” Lee says. “Despite that, in the primaries only 89,000 more Democrats than Republicans turned out to vote. Now, some of that is because the Clinton-Sanders race wasn’t as energizing. But because both Trump and Clinton have such high unfavorable ratings, there are indications that the overall turnout in Pennsylvania this November could be far lower than it was the past two cycles. And that means fewer minority and college-age voters in Philadelphia and the collar counties.”
Lee points out that in the last low-turnout presidential year, 2004, John Kerry beat George W. Bush in Pennsylvania by only 140,000 votes. At this stage, Lee says, Trump is significantly outperforming Bush in the state’s 16 or so bellwether counties — populated in part by unionized miners and steelworkers, in addition to other lifelong Democrats who are nonetheless socially conservative. “In Cambria County, he’s on track to win by twice the margin Bush did,” Lee says. “The point being, if this happens in most of the swing counties, it’s not hard to come up with the 140,000 votes Bush lost by in 2004.”Lee points out that in the last low-turnout presidential year, 2004, John Kerry beat George W. Bush in Pennsylvania by only 140,000 votes. At this stage, Lee says, Trump is significantly outperforming Bush in the state’s 16 or so bellwether counties — populated in part by unionized miners and steelworkers, in addition to other lifelong Democrats who are nonetheless socially conservative. “In Cambria County, he’s on track to win by twice the margin Bush did,” Lee says. “The point being, if this happens in most of the swing counties, it’s not hard to come up with the 140,000 votes Bush lost by in 2004.”
What these counties have in common is a predominance of white, non-college-educated voters. That demographic currently provides Trump with his greatest advantage over Clinton: 53 percent to 28 percent, according to a New York Times/CBS News poll. Exit polls in the 2008 Pennsylvania primary showed that white male voters favored Clinton over Obama, 57 to 43. While many of those voters might have been indisposed to cast their ballots for an African-American candidate, it remains a fact that they are, or were, registered Democrats — and thus are, or were, within Hillary Clinton’s reach.What these counties have in common is a predominance of white, non-college-educated voters. That demographic currently provides Trump with his greatest advantage over Clinton: 53 percent to 28 percent, according to a New York Times/CBS News poll. Exit polls in the 2008 Pennsylvania primary showed that white male voters favored Clinton over Obama, 57 to 43. While many of those voters might have been indisposed to cast their ballots for an African-American candidate, it remains a fact that they are, or were, registered Democrats — and thus are, or were, within Hillary Clinton’s reach.
“This is almost duplicative of 1980, when middle-income working-class voters in Pennsylvania became Reagan Democrats,” says former Harrisburg mayor Stephen R. Reed, a Democrat who supported Clinton in 2008. “Hillary had a very strong appeal to those voters in 2008. If the election were held today, a lot of those voters would be inclined to vote for Trump. I think they’re gettable, but there has to be additional focus by her campaign to reverse the inroads that Trump has made with them. The focus in states like Pennsylvania and Ohio has to be on the economy — creating jobs, raising the minimum wage. I’d leave the other issues to the side, frankly.”“This is almost duplicative of 1980, when middle-income working-class voters in Pennsylvania became Reagan Democrats,” says former Harrisburg mayor Stephen R. Reed, a Democrat who supported Clinton in 2008. “Hillary had a very strong appeal to those voters in 2008. If the election were held today, a lot of those voters would be inclined to vote for Trump. I think they’re gettable, but there has to be additional focus by her campaign to reverse the inroads that Trump has made with them. The focus in states like Pennsylvania and Ohio has to be on the economy — creating jobs, raising the minimum wage. I’d leave the other issues to the side, frankly.”
When I visited the Capitol Diner myself Wednesday, my server, a 58-year old Greek-American woman named Athena, told me that she had waited on then-Senator Clinton at the 2008 event. “She’s a very nice, very intelligent lady,” Athena said. “But after eight years of Obama, I think she would just be a continuation.”When I visited the Capitol Diner myself Wednesday, my server, a 58-year old Greek-American woman named Athena, told me that she had waited on then-Senator Clinton at the 2008 event. “She’s a very nice, very intelligent lady,” Athena said. “But after eight years of Obama, I think she would just be a continuation.”
I asked her if she was intending to vote for Trump. She replied by offering me a high-five. “I’m from a family of immigrants,” she said. “But I think we need to take care of America first.”I asked her if she was intending to vote for Trump. She replied by offering me a high-five. “I’m from a family of immigrants,” she said. “But I think we need to take care of America first.”